Politická ekonomie 2023, 71(2):177-198 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1380
The article investigates potential output and output gap modelling and estimation in the Czech Republic in the period 1996-2021, including the global recession from 2008 and the recent crisis caused by government measures against the COVID-19 pandemic. The unobserved components (UC) methodology is applied, coefficients are estimated by the maximum likelihood method, unobserved variables are estimated using the Kalman filter. The standard UC model is modified in an original way to nonlinearly describe the hysteresis effect by allowing the output gap to have an asymmetrical influence on potential output. The econometric model verification proved significance...
Politická ekonomie 2023, 71(2):153-176 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1381
The article focuses on the relationship between the general government balance and the current account of the balance of payments. The aim is to summarize the existing knowledge about the relationship based on the twin deficit theory and to carry out an empirical verification. As part of the analysis, the Granger causality method is first applied to each EU country separately, and then the threshold panel regression method is used. For the subsequent estimation of the threshold panel model, the direction of the relationship from the general government balance to the current account is considered based on the results of Granger causality. Within the...
Politická ekonomie 2023, 71(2):130-152 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1378
Studies on the long-term trends of quality of life, and more specifically, the Human Development Index (HDI), have thus far largely neglected East Central Europe, and the existing scholarship tends to be fragmented. The paper seeks to address these shortcomings in research by investigating the trends of the HDI in Poland, Czechoslovakia and its successor states, Czechia and Slovakia, as well as Hungary between 1913 and 2010 within a broader international context. The analysis is based on a new data set developed by the authors. The results demonstrate that the HDI performance of the later decades of state socialism was more moderate than it is commonly...
Politická ekonomie 2023, 71(2):104-129 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1382
Considerable diffusion of technology occurs via global trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) while firm heterogeneities cause considerable production heterogeneities. Hi-tech products and investment goods of differentiated varieties from emerging and developed economies are vehicles of superior technology. Given this stylized evidence, we analyse factors facilitating (or inhibiting) technological spillover to domestic firms in the host nations in a counterfactual scenario of a Trans-Pacific-Partnership (TPP) deal. By using a mixture interface of global computable general equi-librium (CGE) models of FDI (GTAP-FDI) and firm heterogeneity...
Politická ekonomie 2023, 71(1):89-103 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1368
This article studies the environmental and societal impacts of a polluting monopoly when a society strives for a clean environment. Two scenarios are considered: (1) the government levies an environmental tax to induce investment in emission-reducing technology, and (2) the monopolist engages in environmental corporate social responsibility (CSR). It is shown that taxation has a lower environmental impact, but the monopolist undertakes CSR activities only if the abatement technology is efficient. Social welfare is always higher under CSR; therefore, when the technology is not adequately efficient, the government should implement a second-best environmental...
Politická ekonomie 2023, 71(1):68-88 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1375
The public finances of the Czech Republic fell into deep deficits during the pandemic, while the money supply growth rate accelerated. We make a basic comparison of monetary acceleration during the first two years of the pandemic with other countries. We verify that this acceleration in the Czech Republic was partly due to commercial banks increasing credit to the government. We argue that purchases of government bonds by non-residents have a similar effect. This is particularly true when non-residents use existing koruna deposits held by them, partly as a result of past foreign exchange interventions, to purchase government bonds. While there was...
Politická ekonomie 2023, 71(1):46-67 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1370
The core of this paper is an econometric estimation of the relation between financial stress and a number of macroeconomic variables (consumption, real GDP, investment, unemployment). This estimation is done on Turkish quarterly data for the period 2002-2021 using threshold vector autoregression (i.e., TVAR). The paper observes the non-linear trade-off between financial stress and macroeconomic indicators. The effect of financial stress appears to be adverse when the stress level is already at a higher level. During high stress episodes, any further increase in financial stress drags economic growth down and the effect appears to be prolonged...
Politická ekonomie 2023, 71(1):23-45 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1377
The social policy of the European Union is focused mainly on the most vulnerable group of citizens. The social instruments that countries use to increase the living conditions and to decrease social exclusion and vulnerability can differ between countries. The submitted paper uses cluster analysis to compare 27 member states of the European Union based on their social policy instruments in 2019. The study analyses the dependence of social policy instruments and household financial vulnerability using correlation and regression analysis. It examines whether higher levels of social benefits and government expenditure result in lower financial vulnerability....
Politická ekonomie 2023, 71(1):1-22 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1379
The main topic of this article is the bilateral trade in value added between the USA and China. The goal is to look at this bilateral trade in the context of "the new wave of globalization". To fulfill this broadly specified goal the article tries to answer following questions: How much are the USA and China involved in global value chains (GVC)? What is the development of the classical bilateral trade using the balance of payments methodology? Where does the value added in exports come from (geographical structure)? Are there any differences between different industry sectors? One of the main findings is that domestic value added in trade between...
