E52 - Monetary PolicyNávrat zpět

The relationship between monetary policy and inequality has received limited attention in the economics literature. This study aims to contribute to the literature by examining the relationship between monetary policy and income inequality in developing countries, specifically by analysing the results of the Turkish experiment. The local projection method was used to determine the relationship between monetary policy shocks, obtained through the VAR model, and the calculated inequality measures. The main findings of the study suggest that monetary policy can potentially influence the distribution of total income, particularly when the monetary policy shock is significant. The results indicate that monetary policy has a significant impact on income distribution, favouring property income. Moreover, this effect is most pronounced among the highest-income group, highlighting the heterogeneous nature of the impact across different income groups. However, the middle 20% group experiences the sharpest deterioration in income distribution following monetary policy shocks.

This article addresses the emergence of double-digit inflation in the Baltic states during 2022 and 2023, following decades of price stability. Utilizing monthly data spanning from January 2010 to February 2023, our study aims to comprehensively analyse the inflation dynamics in the Baltic context, considering both domestic and global factors. Through the application of the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) methodologies, we identify significant influences such as exchange rate fluctuations, food and energy price movements and geopolitical events, notably the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Our findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the determinants of inflation in the Baltic region, offering insights essential for informed policymaking aimed at mitigating vulnerabilities to future inflationary shocks.

This critical review explains the negative impact of the euro on the Spanish economy and its distortion in the period from 2002 to 2014. In this first cycle within the euro area, there was a financial boom, without voluntary savings, which generated a lack of coordination in the economic process and structure. The result was a bubble of overconsumption and malinvestments, which burst with a deflation of capital and wages, and a switch from construction industry to tourism services as Spain's main economic sector. The economic distortion was such that it delayed the exit from the Great Recession of 2008 and the European Financial Crisis of 2010 until 2014, with a recovery and the beginning of a new cycle. The Austrian business cycle theory and capital-based macroeconomics are used to support and illustrate the case study, with quantitative techniques: not to predict, but only to show the real development and to facilitate dialogue with other economic schools.

The article examines the factors of convergence of price levels among European countries, even regarding the time lag since previous research on the Czech Republic's accession to the EU. In addition to the factors included in the Balassa-Samuelson model, it has been found that certain structural factors contribute to price convergence, as could be expected especially in the transition economies after accessing the EU in 2004. It has also been confirmed that in the context of liberalization of the economies in Central and Eastern Europe, the enlarged internal market and harmonization from the EU level, it is not possible to clearly distinguish between "tradable" and "non-tradable" sectors. Contrary to expectations, however, it has been questioned that due to price deregulation in the Czech Republic, reduced price deviation would be reported for goods with regulated prices so the threat of Baumol's disease is still seen in this context. It is also relevant for the context of European integration that it is possible to doubt the risk of price jumps in the Czech Republic after the adoption of the euro, regarding the examination of the price convergence factors.

The central banks of developed countries and those in the region of Central Europe responded to the global financial crisis of 2008 and subsequent economic recession by considerably easing monetary conditions and using new monetary policy tools. One of those tools was the entry into the so far uncharted territory of negative interest rates. The passage of some years after the inception of these new tools has allowed the emergence of new empirical literature, which addresses their effects and effectiveness. The primary objective of this paper is to examine and summarize the empirical literature that deals with the effective lower limit of interest rates, especially in relation to the banking sector and bank interest margins. We then use empirical findings from other countries and apply them to the Czech Republic and draw conclusions for the future monetary policy of the CNB. Our results confirm that the CNB has got enough manoeuvring room even in the area of negative interest rates, which it can take advantage of either for the purpose of price stability, or for more effective management of FX operations.

This paper explores whether downward rigidity in nominal wages has negative impacts on the economy in the case of deflation caused by economic growth. In this situation, growth of real wages may be delivered by a fall in the price level even if nominal wages are constant. Hayek's proposal to stabilize MV is studied in detail. The nominal GDP is stabilized within this framework, and when potential output is growing, the price level might decrease. It is derived that this Hayekian rule would lead to a fall in nominal wages in an economy with positive population growth, which restricts the space for deflation. Friedman's proposal to stabilize prices of factors of production is also examined. It results in weaker deflation than Hayek's proposal and no need for decrease in nominal wages. The next part of the article demonstrates that the Hayekian framework may not require a fall in nominal wages in a converging economy if the labour share of income is gradually increasing, even if population growth is positive.

The article describes both the theory and the practice of exiting from the unconventional monetary policy of quantitative easing (QE). At the theoretical level, the following issues are outlined: exit step sequence, options to decrease the amount of securities purchased, relationship between exit and interest rate hike, communication of the change and liquidity-absorbing instruments. Further, examples from Japan, the United Kingdom and the USA are introduced, especially regarding their experience with the QE exit. In detail, the monetary policy-related numbers (QE purchases, QE portfolio, central bank balance sheet, monetary base and reserves) are observed both before and after the exit announcement. The charts of these changes prove to be substantially different, mainly due to unique key features of each QE policy and diverse exit strategies.

This paper attempts to verify the economic theory that the government expenditure multiplier is higher at the zero lower bound than under normal circumstances. The theory is tested by a vector autoregression on US data between 1955 and 2015. The results obtained suggest a higher multiplier during the 1980s and 1990s than after 2000, when the zero lower bound was reached. According to our results, the proposed economic theory has been rejected. The persistence of the government spending shock is a possible explanation why the multiplier is not higher at the zero lower bound.

In an effort to stimulate aggregate demand at the zero lower bound, economists and central bankers have focused on inflation expectations. The key argument is that an increase in inflation expectations may reduce the real interest rate and thus encourage consumption spending. This article examines not only the traditional channels of the fall in the interest rate connected to the relative importance of the substitution and income effects, but it also investigates the impact on the perceived real future labour income. It is shown that if people do not adjust their expectations about future nominal labour income when inflation their expectations rise, the effect on present consumption can be negative, and the aggregate demand might be reduced rather than increased. A graphical and mathematical analysis in the paper exposes the relative importance of traditional channels and this new channel. It is shown that the traditional perspective is only a special case of a more general approach.

The paper deals with the issue of interbank interest rate pass-through into client interest rates offered by banks in the condition of Slovak Republic between 2004 and 2016. We provide an overview of studies of the interest rate relationship analysis in the bank and interbank market. We investigate the interest pass-through from money market rates to various loan and deposit rates. The analysis is carried out using the methodology of cointegration error-correction model, which take into account both the long-term and the short-term aspect of interest rate development. Our results point to considerable differences in the size of the pass-through with respect to either different loan and deposit rates. It has also shown a low rate of immediate transmission, the incompleteness of the pass-through, higher efficiency in the process of interbank interest rates pass-through into the interest rates on loans, and we can conclude that the process of interest rates pass-through in our conditions is relatively stable.

The aim of the paper is to present traditional and alternative look at the evolution of business cycle synchronisation in the European Union throughout four periods determined according to integration process. Gradually we apply cross-correlations and rather alternative minimum spanning tree method to evaluate synchronization process and core or peripheral countries. An endogeneity argument and decreasing asymmetries among integrated countries were confirmed with a light rupture during financial and economic crisis. Position of France and Germany as core countries was corroborated. However, single monetary policy should be implemented according to average macroeconomic evolution in the euro area and not according to particular situation in France and/or Germany which could be inappropriate for certain countries.

The paper is devoted to the topic of investment with emphasis on their position within the transmission mechanism of inflation targeting. It briefly discusses starting-points of inflation targeting regime, individual transmission channels of monetary policy, and routes through which the central bank may influence the investment. There are mentioned selected investment theories. Other factors, whose changes may induce changes in investment, are derived using these theories. Using available data, sources of investment variability are verified for the Czech Republic. Correlation analysis is performed and the vector error correction model is compiled. It seems that rise of aggregate demand is transformed into rise of investment. Similarly in case of asset prices. Appreciation of CZK is reflected in decline of investment. All three relations are consistent with the theory. On the contrary, sensitivity of investment to changes in market expected real interest rates is not clear.

Advanced countries are losing their predominant position in the world economy. With the long-time productivity slowdown and the present long recession, a question arises about the threat of secular stagnation of the advanced world. In searching for the roots of this threat, leading world economistst accentuate either the demand side, or the supply side of the economy. In this respect, the authors add globalization as another important factor. Globalization has resulted in long-term global and internal imbalances, and caused deep problems in the advanced countries - deindustrialization, unemployment, growing dependence on the social safety net, and a permanent increase of government intrusion into the economy. After the 2008 crisis, fiscal and monetary policy concentrates on short-term support of economic recovery, leaving aside the deeper long-term deficiencies. With multiple negative trends acting in the same direction, the threat of secular stagnation should not be overlooked.

The paper explains modern liquidity crisis and financial contagion from shadow banking system to money market in 2007-2009. Liquidity shock was massive due to high connectivity with the quality of underlying (securitized) assets. Thus, the problem of solvency was main driver of the liquidity crisis on the interbank market. Counterparty risk was transmitted to the money market through various channels: direct or indirect exposition to shadow banking, confidence channel, asset price channel and wholesale funding run. The structure of paper is following: first part analyzes financial market infrastructure of shadow banking, wholesale funding (originate-to-distribute) model and ABCP market; the second one describes financial market turmoil and contagion to the money market. Liquidity crisis strongly hit many segments of the money market: unsecured money market, repo market, FX swap market, Eurodollar market. Liquidity crisis was severe due to strong correlation between counterparty risk and liquidity premium as well between funding and market liquidity. Monitoring of the main causes of the liquidity crisis in his early stages is important for the fast reaction by central banks in terms of collateral quality and quantity of the reserve´s supply.

Crisis development in some banking systems has been associated with large-scale aid programs, which has been heavily involved with the central bank's impact on the very rapid growth of their balance sheets. The banking system in the Czech Republic in the period 2005-2015 has not undergone any crisis. Significant changes in the balance of the Czech National Bank were associated with foreign exchange interventions against the Czech crown. High liquidity determines almost zero demand of banks for loans from the central bank. The Czech National Bank is in the "debtor" position in relation to banks. Central banks in the European Monetary Union and the United States are in the opposite position of the creditors. The dramatic growth in bank reserves had no significant inflationary pressures. The main reason is careful supply of bank loans. All this confirms that issuing money into the economy is associated especially with commercial banks' lending to non-bank subjects. Central bank issues money only to the banking system.

This paper studies the impact of inflation dynamics on a common economic policy in the monetary union using a small New Keynesian model of the monetary union. We are considering two open economy versions of the Phillips curve: a typical New Keynesian Phillips curve with only forward looking dynamics and a hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve with forward and backward looking dynamics. The main findings are as follows: (i) the backward looking dynamics (persistence) of inflation in the Phillips curve is an important determinant of the common economic policy in the monetary union; (ii) in the case of asymmetric dynamics of inflation in the monetary union countries, the country with more persistent inflation dynamics has a significant impact on the common economic policy.

Since 2014, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan have entered into the unchartered water of modest negative nominal interest rates, when they broke zero lower bound. Large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance effects are limited by zero nominal bound if yield curve is absolutely flat. Negative interest rate has been implemented with the aim of reinforcing effects of unconventional monetary policy and lowering real interest rates. Therefore, another decrease in nominal yield curve should ensure, that inflation target will be met in a medium term horizon. Main goal of the paper is to reveal implementation, transmission channels and risks associated with the negative interest rates. Implementation was successful within the existing framework of the current monetary policy. Negative effective interest rate has been reflected in sharp drop of governments yield curve and mortgage rates. According current constellation of negative interest rates, monetary effect outperforms potential unintended impacts. On the other side, there are many risks mainly for financial stability and financial market functioning, if negative interest rates will be under effective zero lower bound or will persists for an extended period.

This paper focuses on impact of central bank's oral commentaries on asset prices, i.e. verbal interventions. The paper maps basic preconditions and key channel how central bank's words mirror into asset prices. A significant part of the paper concentrates on the Czech Republic where the exchange rate floor and accompanying frequent comments from the CNB's Bank Board are in operation since 2013. The first hypothesis tests whether there is asset price-making information during the Bank Board decision days. In this sense, the factor analysis confirms at least two factors which influence various asset prices. It is assumed that former factor concerns the surprise in monetary policy decision and the latter following press conference. The second hypothesis endeavours to specify the components of verbal interventions: position in the Bank Board, verbal intervention form and visibility of intervention topic. Only comments made by the CNB's governor proved to be significant, leading to higher volatility of the exchange rate.

The paper examines the quantitative easing as a policy contributing to government debt sustainability in the context of government debt cycle. Thus, the emphasis is primarily not put on the rescue of financial system after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Instead, the attention is paid to a role of central bank as a lender of last resort in government bond markets and quasi-fiscal motivation of the quantitative easing programs. The theoretical part of the analysis defi nes quasi-fiscally motivated QE program, government adjusted net debt position plus its determinants and a rate of debt monetization. Empirical analysis focuses on the case of three large economies - United States, United Kingdom and Japan, empirical defi nition of quasi-fiscally motivated quantitative easing, net debt position of their governments as well as the explanation of significant empirical relationships between its determinants. The paper concludes that the most important factor infl uencing net debt position dynamics is economic growth which cannot be relied on in bust phase of debt cycle. Thus, the decisive role is played by quantitative easing and related interest transmission channel as remaining factor influencing dynamics of government fnancial assets and liabilities.

The article in the context of the current Greek crisis analyses the consequences of forced unification, occurring in the European Union, at least since the Maastricht Treaty, which is now associated mainly with the process of monetary union. The current stage of European integration is based on political constructivism and it is characterized by the dominance of politics over economy, which in some aspects of the system resembles the communist economy system, which was an extreme distortion of the relationship between politics and economy. The unification model of European integration does not help the weaker European Union countries, for it forces them to use various forms of standardization that brings high (often hidden) costs (exceeding profits). The article notes that the main prize in the economy is the exchange rate. The reason for the imbalances within the monetary union is a non-optimal exchange rate for each member country - too overvalued rate of Greece, but also too undervalued rate of Germany. The text also discusses limitations (systemic and political) and inability to perform adequate internal devaluation and systematic (not just partial, parametric) reforms in Greece. The congenital structural differences among the EU countries and the impossibility of the exchange rate adaptation lead to a systemic Eurozone defect, which results in a fact, that it is not (and, in the present composition, it even cannot be) an optimal currency area.

The article deals with the theoretical issues of macro-prudential policy, the influence of risk channel of monetary policy on financial stability and the cooperation of macro-prudential and monetary policy, respectively the compatibility of the objectives of these policies. On the Czech economy data is therefore tested the relationship between monetary policy conditions and prices of selected categories. The model results open the door to greater use especially of the industrial producer price index, respectively its sub-indices, for the coordination of monetary and macro-prudential policy in the Czech Republic.

This paper discusses the thesis that the main danger for eurozone survival does not lie in the areas that most economists have focused on; that is, it lies neither in insufficient regulation of the financial sector (banking union) nor in fiscal irresponsibility of the European governments (fiscal compact). The eurozone technically has unlimited financial resources at its disposal to solve its recent financial problems, but the potential threats are rather of a political origin. The most important challenges are the distinct expectations that the strongest European economies harbored before the foundation of the eurozone. The French sought to gain more autonomy in the conduct of their domestic economic policy, which had been impeded by external constraints, particularly exacerbated by German monetary policy. The German goal was to prevent permanent upward pressure on their currency, which had been undermining their export-led economic model. These distinct expectations did partly influence the institutional arrangement of the Economic and Monetary Union. However, the essence of the Franco-German conflict has not been adequately addressed and we hold that the eurozone in its current setting is not able to fully resolve it. That being said, the ECB can employ means that could allow it to postpone the solution for a very long time.

The paper is discussing CNB FX intervention and its impact on all segments of Czech financial markets from process and volumes of transactions point of view and possible consequences. The focus is on foreign exchange, bond and stock market. Although the impact of FX intervention was evident on all markets under discussion, it was not so significant having macroeconomic effects. The only exception is the FX market. The Czech National Bank contributed to the widening gap between market and equilibrium exchange rate. The undervalued Czech currency will have a temporal positive impact on the macroeconomic external balance.

For the purpose of monetary policy analyses dynamic multivariate models are usually applied. The reason is the presence of significant lags between an action and the appropriate effects in the economy. We use the concept of structural VAR models, widely used approach next to the DSGE and simultaneous equations models. We estimate four and five variable VAR containing the key macroeconomic indicators and identify monetary transmission mechanism using SVAR. Using different identification schemes and impulse response functions we compare the effect of a restrictive monetary policy shock on the set of analysed variables, especially price level. We also compare the results of defined models for the Czech and Polish economies, that both intend to enter EMU. To avoid the possibility of a price puzzle effect, as a result of mixing policy regimes in the sample period, we use data from single monetary policy regime starting 1998, when the Czech central bank switched to the inflation targeting regime. The results indicate high sensitivity to the identification schemes in SVAR and not significant differences between responses to monetary policy shock in CR and Poland.

The paper discusses Federal reserve's monetary policy during banking crisis interim 1929 - 1933. Main goal of the paper is to discuss the monetary policy implementation problems during 1930s based on Real-bills and Riefler-Burgess doctrine. First part of the paper reveals possible conflict between FED's monetary tools and targets arising from gold exchange standard. Expansionary monetary policy during banking crisis was potentially strongly limited by conflict among U.S. financial stability and sustainability of the gold standard. The second part describes monetary policy implementation during 1920s. The third part discusses FED's open market operations during the banking crisis and the fourth part explains the behavior of the interest rates. Finally, the work concludes that FED managed liquidity of U.S. banking system inappropriately and caused many bank deposit suspensions. FED considered monetary condition to be easy and sufficient to cover needs of production. Money interest rates responded very moderately to shortage of banking system's liquidity. We can find the origin of quantitative easing in 1932 when FED first bought large quantities of government securities. This policy was insufficient because of short term duration and the gold outflow neutralizations.

The aim of this article is to estimate the mutual interaction of monetary and fiscal policy in the Visegrad Group countries, i.e. in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, and Hungary. The relations between monetary and fiscal policy - its coordination, cooperation or mutual antagonism - are basic determinants of successful economic policy implementation of each country. Fiscal and monetary policies usually have different aims. Therefore, some conflict situations may arise in practical economic and political decision-making process. Methodical approaches of this article are based on the game theory, which deals with the analysis of a wide range of decision-making situations with more participants (players); it is primarily focused on the conflict situations. Our results confirm the stabilizing role of monetary policy in the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary, also the dominant role of monetary policy in the Czech Republic and the dominant role of fiscal policy in Hungary. In the case of Slovakia, inconsistent results concerning the monetary policy role are probably caused by its EMR II membership and Eurozone entry in 2009.

The income elasticity of money demand is one of the most frequently estimated parameters in economics, but the individual estimates of the elasticity vary a lot. In this paper we present a quantitative survey of the literature estimating this parameter. We collect previous empirical estimates of the elasticity from many studies and analyze why the estimated elasticities differ so much. We test whether the literature is affected by the so-called publication selection bias; that is, if estimates consistent with mainstream theories tend to be published more often. Moreover, we analyze whether the reported estimates of the elasticity differ systematically across countries, estimation methods, and time periods.

The article deals with the theoretical issues of macroprudential policy, shift of monetary policy paradigm towards application of so called "leaning against the wind" strategy and mutual cooperation of these policies, which are both aimed at maintaining financial stability. For detection of financial instability are mainly used early warning indicators, which are most often based on the credit activity of the economy and asset prices development. In the second part, we examine the impact of the credit activity in the Czech Republic on the prices of particular assets and its subsequent effect on the consumer price index.

Central banks of major advanced economies have already started their sixth year of the greatest ever experiment in monetary policy at place. First, special measures were taken to prevent collapse of financial intermediation. At the same time main policy rates were cut down to historical lows hitting the zero lower bound quite soon after the onset of the financial crisis. After that central banks realised various unconventional measures in order to support their weak economies. While exceptional instruments aimed at restoring financial markets seem to have been inevitable to avert a collapse of a much greater magnitude in the short run, some other measures have remained disputable. Not only had these measures limited effectiveness in restoring stronger and sustainable economic growth, but concerns have also been raised recently about their unintended consequences. These side-effects concern not only domestic economies but international spillovers on many vulnerable less advanced and/or developing economies have been evident. Moreover, potential risks of the unprecedented measures may start to act fully in a longer horizon. Quantitative easing has led to enormous increases in balance sheets of the Fed, the BoE and ECB; however structural differences on the asset side have been evident. Main challenge for major central banks thus seems to be the right timing and structure of inevitable exit strategies in the near future so that a smooth exit with minimal side effects could be guaranteed.

The objective of the article is to identify impact of economic policy implications on current financial and economic crisis. The analysis examines a hypothesis that the main causes of financial and economic crisis include unbalanced developments of the macroeconomic sphere as well as existing weaknesses of banking systems, which often do not evolve in line with the development of economy fundamentals. The article is going to inspect three areas: (i) What development trends and economic policy were registered in the pre-crisis period in order to identify the main causes of economic fluctuations of economy; (ii) How economic policies responded to the course of the financial and economic crisis; (iii) What was the effect financial crisis had on the real economy development? The main task for after-crisis periods is to improve setting of monetary and fiscal policy, bank risk management system and also system for monitoring and analysing the business cycle.

The paper deals with interest rate volatility interpretation in the dealer's model of optimal interest margin. It defines main sources of interest rate volatility and studies how specific source of volatility influences optimal interest margin. Special attention is focused on unexpected shock in liquidity of banking system, actual central bank's decision on targeted level of interest rate, long-term deviation of inflation and output from central bank's targeted values and potential impact of these factors on term premium instability. Sources of interest rates are discussed in term of bank's refinancing/reinvestment risk with an attempt to formalize interest rate volatility for further empirical research. Our conclusion is that dealer's model of optimal interest margin is consistent with only permanent shocks to banking system liquidity and long-lasting central bank's surprises with its monetary policy that increase a level of refinancing/reinvestment risk faced up by banks. On the other hand it is not consistent with interest rate volatility caused by transitory liquidity shocks, expected current changes in central bank's targeted main policy rate and long run trends in main policy rate based on disinflation.

There is no historical precedent for the institutional set-up of the eurozone. However, it is an arrangement that could not and cannot escape the universal laws and principles of economics. This paper tries to look generally at the consequences of this integration project from the perspective of the former monetary hegemon, Germany, whose hegemony largely ended as a result of the monetary integration method chosen. Those consequences are of course more apparent in bad times than they were in good times. We then specifi cally examine the problem of convergence and divergence within a currency area and discuss the issue of competitive devaluation. In the conclusion we try to formulate the fundamental dilemma faced by the former monetary hegemon. Its solution will affect those inside and outside the integration project.

The aim of our paper is to formulate and empirically verify the simple backward looking econometric model of the monetary rule, which would be able to describe the development of CNB repo rate, namely only on the basis of statistically measured and in the given time available information. We focus on the period after 1998, when the CNB's inflation targeting policy is implemented and the repo rate (14 days) plays the role of the monetary policy rate. In the paper we discuss some methodological problems associated with the "ex post" empirical verification of the central bank monetary rule. We construct an empirical model of the monetary rule, justify the choice and the inclusion of explanatory variables, we analyze the statistical properties of time series and verify the alternative forms of econometric models. Our analysis showed that the development of CNB repo rate in the reporting period can be explained by the past and present evolution of three explanatory variables: the yearly inflation rate, the exchange rate and the ECB repo rate. The annualized inflation rate proved to be statistically insignificant in the model. We find interesting that the statistical quality of the estimated model was further increased after a six-month delay of the yearly inflation rate. The obtained results indicate that in determining the CNB repo rate the expected future level of the yearly inflation rate does not play important role and the last yearly inflation rate is more important than its present level.

The article is focused on the analysis of export performance of the German economy, including the model scenarios that illustrate the transmission of shocks to the external environment of the Germany into the Czech economy. The analysis is motivated by the fact that the German economy is by far the largest trading partner of the Czech Republic since its establishment in 1993 and that Germany plays the role of an economic "locomotive" in the broader European region.

Knowledgeability about interest rates set by a central bank is very important for all participants in an economy. In this paper we have used publicly available data to model how Czech National Bank manipulates its 2W repo rate when conducts its monetary policy. For this purpose, eight indicators are chosen. They are the Consumer Price Index (CPI), GDP growth rate (HDP), the monthly exchange rate EURCZK (KURZ), the monthly growth rate of monetary aggregate M2 (M2), the monthly unemployment rate (NEZAM), the monetary policy interest rate of the European Central Bank (EBC), the two-week Prague Interbank Interest rate PRIBOR14 and Economic Sentiment Indicator (IES). First, they are used as explanatory variables and then as the input signals to two different artificial neural network types with different architecture: the multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) nets with different number of hidden neurons to model 2W repo rate of CNB. As a result, we fi nd that while the RBF network fails to provide stable results superior to the one of the linear model, the MLP network always can deliver better results than the one of the linear model. The best results are achieved with a network with only two hidden neurons. Further, these results are relatively stable with minimum time needed to complete the calculation. The MLP network therefore seems to be a promising tool for modeling the 2W repo rate of CNB.

The article deals with monetary disequilibrium in the theory of endogenous money. In new consensus economics, monetary disequilibrium is not considered whereas money is endogenous and passive. In post-Keynesian economics, there is an explicit discussion about reconciliation of money demand and supply. Based on careful distinction between money and credit markets, it is argued that monetary disequilibrium can occur even when money is endogenous and therefore money is endogenous and active. This is because of  insufficiency of reflux mechanism. The article suggests ways in which new consensus should be supplemented to incorporate this issue. This is also important for monetary policy otherwise a part of transmission mechanism is left out.

This paper provides a theoretical framework for a thesis that the transition to the inflation targeting regime, either explicit or implicit, may be one of the causes of the long-term latent accumulations of the financial and structural imbalances, materializing much later and with more dire consequences. Due to the long-term systematic manipulation of interest rates, within the operational framework of the stabilization of consumer prices and the output gap, as well as of anti-deflationary fundamentalism, the economy can transform itself into a kind of "black box", gradually and over time causing an "escape" of credit and monetary aggregates. Money supply tends to be more endogenous and elastic, changing the causality within a link between the money supply and its effective economic materialization, both in production processes of the real economy as well as in banking and financial services. Thereby, the economy lacks a needful defensive mechanism that would pull the overheating economy back through more exogenous and inelastic money supply, automatically adjusting market interest rates. In the empirical part we employed VECM tests to show that the money supply was exogenous before the implicit adoption of inflation targeting in the USA (1985), but endogenous after it.

The article discusses the relationship between monetary policy and price of oil, in broader sense price of commodities. Firstly it focuses on describing the relationship of key macroeconomic variables, gas prices and other commodities against oil prices. Subsequently, it discusses the existence of a "transmission channels" through which monetary policy can be propagated into oil prices (or prices of commodities). Secondly it provides further insight into the forecasting process of the CNB, in both a retrospective look back at the prospects of oil prices in the past and the analysis of transitory and permanent shock (the rise in oil prices of 30 USD/b). Simulated oil price shock is calculated from the average level of Brent oil prices in the first quarter of 2010, i.e. 77.50 USD/b.

The relatively long term period of stability before the present crises called even "Great Moderation" or "Golden Age of Central Banking" indicated that the infl ation targeting was a success story. As of 2008 a lot has changed and the debate over "Leaning against the wind or Clean afterwards?" is being revisited among central bankers and academicians. At the same time the question "Does money matter in monetary policy" is on the table again. This paper focuses on the discussion of these issues; moreover, some new challenges that emerged in previous three years are discussed. The crisis has highlighted an urgent need to incorporate banks and financial frictions into monetary policy modelling framework - therefore some new findings on this field of research are outlined. An important lesson from the crises is that price stability is not a sufficient precondition for financial stability, therefore an operational framework for financial stability is being searched - this is subject of the final part of this paper.

The paper deals with accumulation of foreign exchange reserves of central banks and its consequences in banking system liquidity management. In theoretical part the case of banking system liquidity surplus is analyzed focusing on creation of liquidity through FX operations, sterilization of liquidity and main sources of liquidity absorption. In this context it is analyzed how monetary policy instruments (on outright or repo basis) enable central bank to react on volatility of banking system liquidity needs and to cover issued currency in circulation and bank's reserves by net foreign assets. In empirical part these problems are analyzed and compared using the example of the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. The paper focuses on main differences in the level of liquidity surplus, cost of sterilization, volatility of spread between O/N reference interest rate and main policy rate, main sources of liquidity absorption and dynamics of currency in circulation and reserves covering by net foreign assets.

Learning process is a new approach of filling the gap between adaptive expectations and rational expectations. Private agents are learning new information and adjust their expectation about the inflation and output gap. Central bank transparency is one of the key factors of learning by private agents. However the learning process is also very important aspect for central bankers to improve their credibility.

The article deals with the relationship of post-Keynesian economics to new consensus as a theoretical framework of inflation targeting. First, new consensus with its roots in Wicksell's approach is briefly introduced. In the next parts differences and meeting-points of new consensus and post-Keynesian economics are discussed. Among the main similarities is identified: short term interest rate management, endogeneity of monetary base, endogeneity of money supply. But a lot of basic differences are found (goals of monetary policy, interest rate functions, nature of inflation, shape of Phillips curve and others). As a result, on the general level new consensus and post-Keynesian economics seem to be rather incompatible.

The first question that we ask ourselves in our article is whether the accounting of the central bank is supposed to respect the principles of internationally accepted standards (especially the International Financial Reporting Standards). We are looking for the basic differences in understanding of terms such as (il)liquidity and (in)solvency on the level of central and commercial banking. We analyze the economic reasons for origination of the long foreign exchange position of the ČNB which, under the circumstances of trend appreciation of the exchange rate of the Czech crown, is leading to a cumulative loss. We are discussing whether the current level of foreign exchange reserves of the ČNB is excessive or adequate. Special attention is paid to the monetary and financial impact of the loss of the central bank. We are pointing out that losing the central bank means profit for market subjects at the same time. It is not just a "fictitious" accounting problem and it can have its factual impact on the national economy. At the end we are summarizing and assessing the individual opinions regarding the loss of the ČNB.

This paper examines definitions and assessments of central bank aggressiveness. It shows theoretical reasons why there is certain minimal threshold value if CB wants to stabilize price level and on the other hand, why excessive reactions are suboptimal. The empirical part suggests that aggressiveness could be measured by defining certain indicators, based on variability of interest rates, inflation and output gap. The results are reported for countries with independent monetary policy as well as for countries in the eurozone, which has handed their monetary independency to ECB.

This study presents an analysis of the sources of variability of interest rates in the money market in the context of Czech National Bank's (CNB) monetary policy. The factors in question are changes in the structural characteristics of economies in transition, changing perception of inflation risks, the inconsistency of central bank's monetary decisions and central bank's weakened credibility and uncertainty about the efficient transmission of monetary measures. The empirical analysis documents non-stationary variability of ultra short-term PRIBOR interest rates and stability of longer maturity PRIBOR interest rates. These results reflect the role of CNB in bank system liquidity management, the uncertainty about the timing of CNB's monetary policy at the changing speed of the appreciation of the crown, tendencies of overestimation of expected inflation and changing structural characteristics.

Slovak Republic entered the ERM II in the end of 2005 whereby it came nearer to its strategic objective - joining the euro area. In this paper we try to answer two questions. Section 1 examines the features and risks of the EMU. Is EMU an optimum currency area and what is the OCA scorecard of euro area? We conclude that euro area - in spite of its indisputable benefits - is rather a premature monetary union with asymmetric monetary policy effects and other policy asymmetries. Section 2 analyzes possible effects of the EMU on the Slovak economy. We examine the experience of other countries and compare their real convergence to average level of euro area before and after joining the EMU. The readiness of Slovak economy for euro adoption, possible obstacles on this uneasy way and the connection between income level, price level and real convergence are analysed at the end of the paper.

During 1930s and 1940s Josef Macek developed monetary theory leading to monetary policy recommendations which are deeply influenced by macroeconomic theory of John Maynard Keynes. Macek became leading Czech left-wing keynesian. His theory of money was nominalist and similarly to J. M. Keynes and G. Cassel he elaborated the concept of managed fiat money. He critisized and disapproved the quantity theory of money. In his monetary theory and his monetary policy conclusions he was a forerunner of contemporary post-keynesian monetary theories. Money supply is in his monetary theory highely endogenous and he expressed certain doubts about effeciency of monetary policy measures as antirecessionary remedy.

The paper analyses a relationship between monetary aggregate M2 and inflation in a small open economy. The relationship between monetary expansion and inflation as well as a dynamic of income velocity of money framework in a small open economy are discussed in more details in the paper. Authors have developed a medium-term structural model using for an empirical verification of the relationship between monetary aggregate M2 and price development in tradable and non-tradable goods and services in the Czech Republic in the period 1996-2004. The empirical results of the model indicate that money has a significant impact on the price development of non-tradables. On the other hand, a statistically significant relationship between money and tradables inflation in the case of the Czech small open economy is not found. The conclusions presented in the paper suggest that the monetary aggregate should not be ignored in practical policy-making.

The paper evaluates some policy dilemmas the Czech monetary policy will face on the way towards adopting common currency. The assessment of the inflation criterion concentrates on the potential clash with so called real convergence showing that alleged negative influences on the catching-up process seem to be exaggerated. The reasons leading to some scepticism about the ERM-II arrangement are further explained with distinction placed on eligibility and regime selection motives when applying for the ERM-II membership. Finally, the pros and cons of inflation targeting are discussed from the perspective of promoting the fulfilment of Maastricht requirements. Attention is paid to the issue of optimal exit form inflation targeting having in mind the priority of entering Eurozone with a proper conversion rate.

Effectiveness of actual monetary policy depends on the ability of central banks to stabilize the fluctuations of overnight interest rates around their official policy rate. To ensure the functionality of the stabilization mechanism needs the successful balancing between bank's demand for reserves and central bank's supply of the reserves in interbank market. I discuss the main sources of temporal gaps between the demand for and the supply of the reserves and their impact on the volatility of overnight interest rates. In our theoretical explanation there is stressed the role of intertemporal substitution in fluctuation of demand for reserves. In the empirical part there is analysed the behaviour of overnight interest rates in the Czech interbank market (2001 - 2004) in the context of excess liquidity. Some structural changes in interbank market were found - undershooting of non-stability of excess liquidity and decline of overnight interest rates volatility due to new possibility of intraday credit.

The goal of this article is to explain why central banks undershoot their inflation targets as we can observe also in the case of the Czech Republic. In other words, I am trying to find out if this undershooting is due to unpredictable desinflation shocks or due to asymmetric behaviour of central banks. Specifically, positive deviations from the target (i.e. overshooting) are weighted more in central bank"s loss function than the negative ones. It is shown that the Czech National Bank is asymmetric in its preferences but not so much as in the case of Canada, Sweden and the United Kingdom. On the other hand, some part of undershooting attributes to desinflation shocks hitting the Czech economy.

The paper discusses the issue of impossible trinity and its potential threat for Central and Eastern European countries operating under an inflation-targeting regime during the convergence process before entering the euro area. The threat of monetary policy inconsistency (the impossible trinity) consists of a conflict of the two monetary aims - the criterion of internal price stability and external stability of exchange rates. Providing study on monetary development in Hungary in 2003, as the National Bank of Hungary fought against the speculative attack on a strong edge of the Hungarian forint's fluctuation band. However, Bank's lowering the interest rates significantly together with consequent impacts on internal stability can be considered as monetary policy inconsistency.

Since 1980's many central banks have been changing their monetary strategy to explicit inflation targeting. This new monetary concept is based on management of short-term interest rates in the context of relation between inflation prediction and central bank inflation target. Therefore we try to analyze the crucial problems of efficiency of the inflation targeting strategy - the causality and sensitivity between interest rates on Prague interbank market (PRIBOR) and Czech National Bank repo rate. For this purpose we use the framework of expectation theory with the term premium and simple deterministic regression models. We found out that as repo rate was sticky it led to higher volatility of PRIBOR before repo rate change and when the maturity of PRIBOR was increasing the sensitivity of PRIBOR to repo rate changes was strongly decreasing. In our opinion it's the result of at least partial adjustment of PRIBOR before repo rate changes.

New members of the EU will not form an optimum currency area with the present eurozone member states. The article discusses some costs and benefits of an early EMU entry for the Czech Republic (and other Central-European economies). The authors concentrate on the consequences of loss of country-specific monetary policy, and of exchange-rate flexibility. They also stress the problem of finding the appropriate level at which to fix the exchange rate for both ERM-II and eurozone entry. The importance of both nominal and real convergence is underlined for a successful catch-up. The conclusion is that a "no hurry" policy for euro would be beneficial for a long-term catch-up process of the Czech Republic. Use of country-specific monetary policy is indispensable for real convergence.

The paper consists of four parts each of them devoted to a practical aspect of inflation targeting as conducted by the Czech National Bank. The first part outlines the reasons that led to the adoption of this monetary regime and summarises other advantages for effective and transparent decision-making. The second part addresses the issue of missing inflation targets. It is argued that simple confrontation of targets with actual behaviour of inflation may give a distorted view about the actual performance of monetary policy. The third part discusses a subtle methodological controversy about the difference between so-called escape clauses on the one hand and net inflation on the other. In the last section the author presents his critical view about the role of unconditional forecast in its capacity to indicate future interest rate decisions and to provide a realistic description of transmission mechanism in a small open economy.

Macroeconomic policy is often evaluated solely on the basis of empirical evidence, such as observing the behavior of macroaggregates. This paper argues that this approach bears a shortcoming: "improvement" of macroaggregates can be socially undesirable under certain circumstances. Thus the sole exploration of macroaggregates is not sufficient to evaluate the macroeconomic policy -axiomatic economic theory must be used as well to determine whether the outcomes of macroeconomic policy are beneficial to society or not. The paper first offers a precise definition of a social welfare function (based as much as possible on microfoundations). Then it considers the possibility that macroaggregates might not always correlate with society's welfare. Some illustrations are covered too.