E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment SystemsNávrat zpět

Monetary metals have historically been important in providing limits to the quantity of money. The mandatory backing of money with gold or silver was gradually circumvented and abolished. Both precious metals have thus become, among other things, investment assets associated with returns and risks. They may or may not be profitable and safe. The absence of precious metal limits has led to a significantly faster devaluation of money. However, inflation may also be reflected in rising market prices for financial and real assets. This paper analyses the potential interrelationships between inflation, market prices of shares in the S&P 500 index, and market prices of gold over the period 1996-2020 in the United States. The analysis shows a strong impact of inflation on both the stock index and gold. The market price of gold was partly influenced by the development of market stock prices.

The article focuses on the motives and trends in gold holdings by central banks in recent decades. It examines the correlation between the nominal and real price of gold and selected macroeconomic variables and financial assets over the financial and business cycles. In this context, it outlines gold investment opportunities for central banks and other investors. The paper also highlights differences in gold holdings between the central banks of advanced economies (including those with reserve currencies) and those of emerging market and developing economies. It concludes by presenting a rationale for the position of the Czech National Bank, which ranks among the modern central banks holding minimal amounts of reserve gold.

There are many myths associated with gold, especially its historical role. Notably the supporters of free banking criticise the current monetary system and consider present money unbacked. This does not correspond to the fact that the money is backed by the assets of the issuers. There are demands to return to full gold backing. The analysis of the share of gold in the monetary base and in the monetary aggregates M1 and M2 for the United States of America and the Czech Republic over the period 1993-2016 shows a complete shortage of gold. The results are in units or tenths of percent. The author discusses some other unsolved issues, primarily the high price volatility and the impossibility of unlimited convertibility. Attention is also paid to currency board systems with full foreign currency backing. With the hypothetical admission of full gold backing, restricting the money supply by the amount of gold would quickly and dramatically curtail the supply of credit, with subsequent impacts on economic growth. Requirements for full gold backing of present money are completely illusory.

Advanced countries are losing their predominant position in the world economy. With the long-time productivity slowdown and the present long recession, a question arises about the threat of secular stagnation of the advanced world. In searching for the roots of this threat, leading world economistst accentuate either the demand side, or the supply side of the economy. In this respect, the authors add globalization as another important factor. Globalization has resulted in long-term global and internal imbalances, and caused deep problems in the advanced countries - deindustrialization, unemployment, growing dependence on the social safety net, and a permanent increase of government intrusion into the economy. After the 2008 crisis, fiscal and monetary policy concentrates on short-term support of economic recovery, leaving aside the deeper long-term deficiencies. With multiple negative trends acting in the same direction, the threat of secular stagnation should not be overlooked.

The article deals with the two key issues that have been fundamentally changing the European Union - the crisis of Eurozone and the Brexit. The first part discusses the change of the original balance of power in the EU after the exit of Britain and its possible consequences, especially the strengthening of the relative position of France, and hence the French concept of the EU integration model (deeper federalization of the nucleus and the rest) resulting in an even more explicit model of the two-speed EU. In the ideal Pareto model of the Union, paradoxically, the possibility of exit makes the Union more stable and compact. The second part of the text discusses the problem of the uncompetitiveness of Southern Europe as a specific case of Dutch Disease and four scenarios of its solution - the disinflation or deflation of the South, the inflation of the North, the exit from the common currency and finally the transfer union. The last named scenario is the least attractive of given options, but it is already in progress. The imbalances in the Target 2 payment system discussed in the article are example of this. The conclusion of the article brings ten points summarizing necessary economic and political measures for the EU at the time of power shift after the Brexit and ongoing imbalances between the North and the South in the currency union.

The aim of this paper is to show that the current anti-deflationary rhetoric of central banks lacks adequate support from the economic literature. Based on pure theory, there might be both positive and negative effects of deflation on economic development. The historical record is, if anything, also ambiguous. As recent literature reveals, a substantial number of deflationary periods were accompanied by robust economic growth. The two frequently mentioned examples of dismal deflationary periods - the Great Depression in the United States and the lost decades in Japan - seem to be exceptions. Taking into account the arguments presented in this paper, we argue that central banks should revise their communication strategy. If there is a need to defend easy monetary policy, the main argument should be based, dominantly, on the divergence of forecasted inflation from the inflation target, with a much lesser emphasis on the need to avoid the allegedly destructive effect of deflation.

This paper discusses the thesis that the main danger for eurozone survival does not lie in the areas that most economists have focused on; that is, it lies neither in insufficient regulation of the financial sector (banking union) nor in fiscal irresponsibility of the European governments (fiscal compact). The eurozone technically has unlimited financial resources at its disposal to solve its recent financial problems, but the potential threats are rather of a political origin. The most important challenges are the distinct expectations that the strongest European economies harbored before the foundation of the eurozone. The French sought to gain more autonomy in the conduct of their domestic economic policy, which had been impeded by external constraints, particularly exacerbated by German monetary policy. The German goal was to prevent permanent upward pressure on their currency, which had been undermining their export-led economic model. These distinct expectations did partly influence the institutional arrangement of the Economic and Monetary Union. However, the essence of the Franco-German conflict has not been adequately addressed and we hold that the eurozone in its current setting is not able to fully resolve it. That being said, the ECB can employ means that could allow it to postpone the solution for a very long time.

There is no historical precedent for the institutional set-up of the eurozone. However, it is an arrangement that could not and cannot escape the universal laws and principles of economics. This paper tries to look generally at the consequences of this integration project from the perspective of the former monetary hegemon, Germany, whose hegemony largely ended as a result of the monetary integration method chosen. Those consequences are of course more apparent in bad times than they were in good times. We then specifi cally examine the problem of convergence and divergence within a currency area and discuss the issue of competitive devaluation. In the conclusion we try to formulate the fundamental dilemma faced by the former monetary hegemon. Its solution will affect those inside and outside the integration project.

The paper deals with the monetary policy of the European Central Bank and its effects on economic development of the Czech economy and other new members of EU from the perspective of Post-Keynesian monetary economics. In the first part the basic principles of contemporary Post-Keynesian monetary theory of relative endogeneity of money are shortly presented. The second part concentrates on the Post-Keynesian criticism of the institutional arrangement of the ECB and its monetary policy. The closing part treats issues concerning potential effects of the policy of ECB in the given institutional framework on economic development of the Czech economy and economies of other less developed members of EU after joining the Eurozone. Possible adverse effects on the process of real convergence are discussed and alternative policies eliminating this danger are presented.

The article deals with the role of the central banks in advanced market economies and the theoretical possibility of abolishing these institutions. Central banks have monopolies in some areas, especially regarding monetary policy. In many countries, central banks also have monopolies in other areas, for example in the payment and clearing transactions for banks and the state. In the context of the financial crises, there have been calls for the abolition of central banks and the restoration of money fully-backed by gold and issued by different subjects. The main reasoning behind these requests is connected with the accusation that central banks have been the basic culprits in the current crisis, because of their monopoly of the issuing money. This argument fails to recognize that central banks do not have a monopoly in issuing money as the dominant share of the money creation is attached with the process of multiplication of demand deposits by commercial banks. Restoration of the money backed by gold is furthermore completely unrealistic. The article discusses the shortage of gold stock as one of many reasons why gold is not suitable for monetary purposes.

Slovak Republic entered the ERM II in the end of 2005 whereby it came nearer to its strategic objective - joining the euro area. In this paper we try to answer two questions. Section 1 examines the features and risks of the EMU. Is EMU an optimum currency area and what is the OCA scorecard of euro area? We conclude that euro area - in spite of its indisputable benefits - is rather a premature monetary union with asymmetric monetary policy effects and other policy asymmetries. Section 2 analyzes possible effects of the EMU on the Slovak economy. We examine the experience of other countries and compare their real convergence to average level of euro area before and after joining the EMU. The readiness of Slovak economy for euro adoption, possible obstacles on this uneasy way and the connection between income level, price level and real convergence are analysed at the end of the paper.

The article solves the incentives to the different exchange rate arrangement choice during the transformation and integration period in the Central and East European countries. It follows with the analysis of the industry structure in these economies. It is discussed the existence of its direct and indirect channel of influencing the exchange rate politics. Article solves the hypothesis of interest group formation in regard to the exchange rate policy (the euro adoption) and the intergovernmental bargaining and the bargaining within the economy. The industry analysis results confirm the set hypothesis, in which the heterogeneity of industry structure explains the heterogeneous approach to the exchange rate politics during the transformation process in monitored economies. Finally, the redistributive change of Hungarian exchange rate policy is discussed in connection with the change of subsidies flow within the political cycle.

During 1930s and 1940s Josef Macek developed monetary theory leading to monetary policy recommendations which are deeply influenced by macroeconomic theory of John Maynard Keynes. Macek became leading Czech left-wing keynesian. His theory of money was nominalist and similarly to J. M. Keynes and G. Cassel he elaborated the concept of managed fiat money. He critisized and disapproved the quantity theory of money. In his monetary theory and his monetary policy conclusions he was a forerunner of contemporary post-keynesian monetary theories. Money supply is in his monetary theory highely endogenous and he expressed certain doubts about effeciency of monetary policy measures as antirecessionary remedy.

The paper evaluates some policy dilemmas the Czech monetary policy will face on the way towards adopting common currency. The assessment of the inflation criterion concentrates on the potential clash with so called real convergence showing that alleged negative influences on the catching-up process seem to be exaggerated. The reasons leading to some scepticism about the ERM-II arrangement are further explained with distinction placed on eligibility and regime selection motives when applying for the ERM-II membership. Finally, the pros and cons of inflation targeting are discussed from the perspective of promoting the fulfilment of Maastricht requirements. Attention is paid to the issue of optimal exit form inflation targeting having in mind the priority of entering Eurozone with a proper conversion rate.

The article is concerned with analysis of independence of central banks of the EU Member States within the framework of the ESCB, as well as independence and responsibility of the ECB, and suggests an alternative institutional embodiment of its position, reflecting the specific framework of the EMU. The system of selection of members of the ECB's Executive Board blurs a real collective responsibility towards Member States, which opens possibilities for nontransparent lobbyism. Modified system is suggested so that national bank's governors have a symbolic relationship to the political representation, i.e. that they reflect a national economic policy in some way, without being bound and restricted by its formation whatsoever.

The paper discusses the issue of impossible trinity and its potential threat for Central and Eastern European countries operating under an inflation-targeting regime during the convergence process before entering the euro area. The threat of monetary policy inconsistency (the impossible trinity) consists of a conflict of the two monetary aims - the criterion of internal price stability and external stability of exchange rates. Providing study on monetary development in Hungary in 2003, as the National Bank of Hungary fought against the speculative attack on a strong edge of the Hungarian forint's fluctuation band. However, Bank's lowering the interest rates significantly together with consequent impacts on internal stability can be considered as monetary policy inconsistency.