Politická ekonomie 2003, 51(6):838-850 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.441
Predikce využívající experimentální trhy
- 1 Institut ekonomických studií Univerzity Karlovy, Praha.
- 2 Technische Universität, Dresden.
Predictions using experimental markets
According to the effective market theory, the stock prize on an effective market is the best estimate of the stock's current value. This is the basic assumption for predictions using experimental markets. This article describes the first experimental market organised in the Czech Republic, the experimental political market for Czech parliamentary elections in June 2002. In the beginning we briefly describe the methodology of the predictions via electronic markets. Than we give some description of our market- number of traders, their individual results, development of the market activity in time, etc. Finally we compare the result of our election market with the traditional opinion polls. On the basis of his comparison we discuss the advantages and the limitations of the prediction using the experimental markets.
Keywords: experimental economics, experimental political markets, predictions, simulations
JEL classification: C90, D80, G14
Zveřejněno: 1. prosinec 2003 Zobrazit citaci
Reference
- Beckmann, K., Werding, M.: Passauer Wahlborse: Information Processing in a Political Market Experiment. Kyklop, 1996, č. 2, s. 171-204.
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Berlemann, M.: Wahlborsen versus traditionelle Meinungsforschung: Die Sachsenwahl '99. Dresden, 1999 (www.merit-research.cz).
- Berlemann, M.: Forecasting Inflation via Electronic Markets. Results from a Prototype Experiment. Sofia, Bulgarian National Bank, 2002 (Discussion Paper DP/20).
- Davis, D., Holt, Ch. A.: Experimental Economics. Princeton, Princeton University Press 1993.
- Dušek, L.: Experimentální ekonomie. Praha, IES FSV UK 1995.
- Forsythe, R., Nelson, F., Neumann, G. R., Wright, J.: Anatomy of an Experimental Stock Market. American Economic Review, 1992, s. 1142-1161.
- Hey, J. D., Loomes, G.: Recent Developments in Experimental Economics. New York, Edward Elgar 1993.
- Smith, V. L.: Papers in Experimental Economics. Cambridge, MA, Cambridge University Press 1991.
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