Q54 - Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global WarmingNávrat zpět

Faced with domestic and international responsibilities, China urgently needs to coordinate various regions to achieve carbon peak in an orderly manner. As core regions driving economic expansion and primary hubs of energy consumption, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) regions are substantial contributors to carbon emissions in China. To address regional disparities in carbon emission management, this study estimates CO₂ emissions from 1990 to 2021, employing the STIRPAT model to analyse influencing factors. The findings reveal that the key factor affecting CO₂ emissions in both regions is population. Energy intensity plays a larger role in the BTH, while urbanization affects the YRD more significantly and industrial structure notably affects emissions only in the YRD. Additionally, the PSO-SVR model is integrated with dynamic scenario analysis to predict carbon peaking under various scenarios. Predictions suggest peaks in 2026 for the BTH and 2028 for the YRD under a baseline scenario, with earlier peaks under low-carbon scenarios and delayed peaks under high-carbon scenarios. The research offers insights for region-specific carbon reduction management strategies, addressing regional disparities and guiding effective mitigation efforts.

Governments worldwide are grappling with the challenges of climate change. Following COP28 - the Dubai consensus - it has become even clearer that achieving CO₂ emission reduction targets is crucial to prevent the global temperature from rising above 1. 5 °C. In this context, our study assesses these ambitious climate goals through the lens of green energy and technology adoption within the E7 countries. Using quantile regression and panel ordinary least squares (POLS) techniques on data spanning from 1991 to 2021, we provide insights into the vital role of digitalization and energy choices in reducing CO₂ emissions and advancing towards carbon neutrality. The Westerlund cointegration results indicate a long-run relationship among all the variables. Quantile regression findings reveal that economic growth, nonrenewable energy consumption and green technology adoption affect CO₂, while digitalization and green energy consumption help reduce CO₂. The POLS results confirm the quantile regression outcomes, enhancing the robustness of the analysis. Additionally, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test shows that all the variables significantly predict CO₂ and vice versa. Based on these findings, we propose green growth policies supported by renewable energy and technological advancements to help E7 countries achieve their net-zero emission targets.

This paper examines the effects of climate change, human development, internet use and income inequality on poverty using 50 high-, middle and low-income countries between 2004 and 2020. After applying the panel unit root tests, the parameters are estimated using the quantile regression method. The results reveal that climate change has a statistically significant and positive effect on poverty in the selected 50 countries. Also, the impacts of the human development index and internet use are significant and negative. Our findings reveal that income inequality has a positive effect on poverty. The one-way and two-way models, along with the fixed-effect model, also verify the robustness of the results. Finally, the findings are discussed in terms of policy implications. Considering the findings of the study, it is recommended that policies be implemented to reduce the negative effects of climate change, improve human development and increase internet use to reduce poverty.

This study investigates the relationship between natural disasters, institutional factors, environmental poverty and climate-related migration. The analysis focuses on 112 countries, representing 95% of natural disasters globally from 1992 to 2021, using regression models and clustering countries by their vulnerability and resilience. Key findings show that although improved transport infrastructure can aid in recovery, it may also increase exposure to disaster-affected areas, causing higher mortality. At the same time, sanitation availability significantly reduces mortality and migration in affected regions. The study highlights the need for disaster response strategies tailored to countries' vulnerability levels while emphasising the role of institutions in mitigating climate-related migration and enhancing resilience. Policymakers should prioritise investments in resilient infrastructure, strengthen disaster preparedness strategies tailored to each country's vulnerability profile and focus on enhancing personal freedom, institutional trust and governance capacity. These measures can collectively reduce number of refugees, mitigate impacts of disasters and promote long-term stability in high-risk regions.

The authors' approach to the ethical and political aspects of inter-temporal interactions is the following: 1) Two representative agents Ra and Râ are analyzed and asymmetries in their wealth and voting powers are dealt with by a the text-book tool of a welfare function - its intra and inter-temporal application. 2) A generalized concept of a distance (measured in miles and years, respectively) is to indicate to what extend similarities and differences can be reasonably expected between Ra and Râ - their interests and values. With respect to a given distance, a discount factor then represents the weight that Ra ascribes to the well-being of his counter-party Râ. 3) In the intra-temporal case, the intuitive appeal of the concepts of solidarity, justice and discrimination is accepted, as well as the resultant transfers of wealth from the richer Ra" to his relatively poorer contemporary fellow Râ. 4) Contrariwise, the very concepts easily loose sense in the inter-temporal case. The arguments for this difference are that: (a) the same person may act as both Ra and Râ; the future Râ may be but a new sample of a given man, household, firm, nation … or even mankind itself, (b) wealth is likely to grow with the time-distance between the future Râ and the present decision maker Ra, (c) unlike the geographical distance, a time horizon is infinite; the future Râ may exist whenever - 10 days, 20 months or 17 000 years from now, (d) an interest rate or investment possibilities affect the present Ra's wealth or budget constraint. 5) With the level of aggregation of Ra and Râ, the analytical problems become still more eminent. Should then the two agents represent a mankind as a whole, it appears impossible to identify at what point of the future Râ lives - even if we managed to interpret the interests and preferences of us all today as Ra. A message is passed to natural scientists that they cross over to social analyses whenever they add valuations to their data - in a form of warnings not to mention regulatory proposals - and that as visitors they should respect the state of art of the contemporary social science, including its genuine advisory capacity, namely to globally established policy-makers. Hence, any regulatory constraint on our liberties and freedoms must be always viewed as an outcome of a political struggle - never then as a victory of a modern science, as the currently prevailing rhetoric may suggest.