J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and ForecastsReturn

This article aims to determine and evaluate factors influencing migration behaviour and decision to migrate in 14 regions of the Czech Republic in the periods 1995–2018 and 2004–2018 (after the accession to the EU). The panel data analysis conducted mostly confirms our hypotheses on the impact of the analysed factors, confirming the impact of GDP growth, number of job listings at Labour Offices, number of job applicants, employment in industry and number of finished dwellings. The exceptions are the variables for the crime rate and number of college students in the region, where we found a positive but barely statistically significant coefficient. One group of factors (GDP growth, jobs at Labour Office, finished dwellings) prove to be pull factors, i.e., they are statistically significant and have a positive impact on migration flows. There are also two push factors, both of which represent the labour market situation and, to some extent, the structure of the economy in the region (number of job applicants and employment in industry). Their relationship with migration flows is negative and statistically significant, while several robustness tests are employed.

The purpose of this article is to evaluate the subjective impact of provided care on the quality of life of informal carers, to assess the institution of long-term carer's allowances from the viewpoint of informal carers, and to identify additional social policy tools that could, in carers' opinion, improve the provision of care. Our research shows that provision of care leads to a reduced quality of life for a significant number of respondents. It is confirmed that respondents' welfare is negatively influenced by a lack of funding and weak development of social services. It is not proven that the long-term carer's allowance is a comprehensible benefit increasing the carers' quality of life providing enough motivation to care. This sickness insurance benefit is intended primarily for a temporary lack of self-sufficiency, with the prospect of future improvement. Long-term or permanent lack of self-sufficiency and the related care must be secured by social support and assistance mechanisms, including respite care, and ought to be funded outside the framework of sickness insurance.

The article analyses the relationship between population ageing and sustainability of the EU countries' pension systems, and assesses how this relationship is affected by pension system design and parameters. The findings show that there is a link between population ageing and unsustainability of pension systems; however, there are exceptions in both directions. Despite the significant problem of population ageing, pension systems of some countries are found to be sustainable and vice versa. The elements enhancing sustainability are, for example, hypothetical defined contribution accounts or linking the pension benefit or retirement age to demographic changes. The article also analyses the relative significance of population ageing determinants. Life expectancy appears to be the most significant determinant of population ageing.

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of the economic crisis which commenced in 2008 on fertility levels across the EU, i.e., whether the onset of the crisis influenced the fertility trends and whether the various countries differed in terms of their response to the crisis. The relationship between the two economic indicators GDP per capita and unemployment rate and the total fertility rate as the dependent variable was explored employing panel regression models. Simultaneously, an investigation was conducted into which indicator better fits the modelling of the influence of macro-economic conditions of individual countries on the fertility levels. Data on 28 EU member states from the period 2001 to 2013 were included in the analysis. The results revealed that the onset of the economic crisis exerted a fundamental effect on fertility. In addition, it was found that the two economic indicators were interchangeable in terms of the effects exerted. In conclusion, it was determined that the findings support the supposition that fertility tends to be pro-cyclical in character.

Czech society is ageing, and the availability of these services should be important part of social strategy for the Czech Republic. Thus, the development in this area is not optimal and much more attention should be put on. Increasing life expectancy cause not only higher demands on the pension systems but also higher demands on social services. This is emphasised by the slower increase of healthy life expectancy and therefore it can be assumed that more people in higher age will require more social services. The paper deals with the issue of the macroeconomic costs and benefits of satisfying the requirements for residential care activities, especially for homes for the elderly as one of the most important area of social care. The aim of the paper is to estimate overall direct and indirect macroeconomic effects for the Czech Republic at the level of the regions. The relation between demand and supply of residential care activities is illustrated for 2013. While some issues can simply be related to the Czech population as a whole, some estimates are presented at the regional level. Economic impacts on the gross domestic product, employment and government finance are estimated by the semi-dynamic input-output analysis. It is illustrated how the investments into social facilities are transformed into economic development with different regional scale.

Component encouraging private savings was introduced or is under consideration in pension schemes of many countries. This diversification of old-age income sources shifts the responsibility for the level of retirement income to the individuals themselves and, at the same time, opens the question about their preparedness for such financial decisions. Inadequate savings could have enormous impact on their future life and determine their standard of living in the period of retirement. The aim of the paper is to identify key demographic and socio-economic factors determining individuals' proactive approach to the private pension savings. We also would like to point out group of individuals with a low level of the private savings involvement. These individuals are potentially poverty vulnerable in their old-age. Using representative sample of 2 826 citizens of the Slovak Republic from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey carried out by the National Bank of Slovakia, we have identified as key factors age, education, income, ownership of second real estate and other financial assets and sharing household with pensioners. Our research contributes to the extension of existing knowledge that can be used by countries with multi-pillar pension systems, absence of occupational employment funds and low availability of products for voluntary pension savings.

As of 2015, the yearly number of live births in the Czech Republic will probably be lower than the number of deaths. Latest population forecast, presented by the Czech Statistical Office in 2013, shows that without permanent international immigration the population of the Czech Republic would decrease. The paper presents the results of our own population forecast, which takes into account the recent fertility increase observed in 2013-2015, and the replacement migration concept, i.e. the estimate of the amount of annual net migration needed to stabilize the Czech Republic population size at its current size (10.6 million of inhabitants) until the end of this century. Three different scenarios of future fertility levels are assumed. We also compare our results with the population forecast without migration and with constant net migration. Additionally to the population forecast itself, we present future trends in the productive, post-productive and old-age population, and compute old-age dependency ratios. We define the upper threshold of the productive age in agreement with the increasing retirement age in the Czech Republic. Based on our findings, we conclude that immigration is not able to stop the population ageing process as such, but can partially eliminate its consequences. Possible opportunities, as well as migration risks, are also discussed.

Slovak Republic as well as many other OECD countries has faced significant increase of health expenditures in last decades. Sustainability of health care public component is therefore and mainly on the ground of ageing of population a political and scientific challenge for many countries. Paper pursues ex ante sustainability of health care system in Slovak Republic. By using modified models of International Labour Organization and European Commission and exogenous macroeconomic and population expectations we forecasts revenues, expenditures and also sustainability of the health care policy scenarios until year 2030. We identified possible changes in the income and expenditures policies for the Slovak health system, which can lead to improve balance of whole system by assumed population and macroeconomic scenarios.

The paper present a simple model of the future development of incomes and expenses of the old-age pension system in the Czech Republic (so called 1st pillar). The projection is based on the results of the latest available population projection published by the Czech Statistical Office in 2013. The expected number of employees (payers of the old-age insurance premium) is estimated on the basis of the sex and age structure of people in productive age and expected employment rates. All people at the age higher than retirement age are expected to receive old-age pension. The permanent increase of retirement age according to the present legislation is assumed. The computations show that the financial deficit of the old-age pension system would reach maximum values in the fifties when the numerous generations born in the seventies of the last century will reach the pension age. But in the last two decades of the present century the proportion of pensioners would be lower than at present times.

The ageing of population and its economical, social and political consequences is a topic very frequently discussed. This paper contains the analysis of consequences of the ageing of the Czech population during this century based on the population projection using the latest available data reflecting the results of the last census in 2011. Besides the usual simple (and of course very crude) measures of economic dependency in the population (e.g. various dependency ratios) the paper contains a computation of a more sophisticated measure - the ratio of social dependency - which takes into account not only the amount of personal consumption but also costs of education and health care.

The long-term sustainability of the public finance in the context of population ageing is becoming a hot topic in most of the European countries including the Czech Republic. Moreover the Czech population will be one of the oldest in the world according to the forecasts of different institutions (UN, OECD, etc.). It poses challenge for the Czech pension security scheme. This paper presents possible scenarios of the future development and illustrates future fiscal impacts of the ageing assuming a preservation of the current Czech pension security scheme in the period up to 2050. The analysis is based on a detailed one-year age structure. This allows us to simulate the influence of the changes in component parameters of the current scheme on its future situation (for example, changes in retirement age limits). The main conclusion is that there is a rather small impact of these parameters changes on the expected future imbalance of the Czech pension system. Therefore a more fundamental reform of the current pension system should be considered.

The main object of this paper is to explain the significance of the key factors which determined the labour force of the Czech population in the period 1993 - 2002. These key factors are the age structure irregularities and the changes in the labour force participation rates by age. The first part is focused on the description of the demo- graphic development in the Czech Republic. The second one contains the analysis of the Czech labour force. The changes in the labour force participation rates by age had negative effect, while age structure irregularities had positive effect on labour supply in 1993 - 2002. But it is possible that in the near future the age structure will become worse because of the ageing of the Czech population. For this reason the expected demo-graphic development of the Czech population up to 2050 and its implications for future labour supply of the population are also discussed in this paper.