H68 - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and DebtNávrat zpět

The article analyses the relationship between population ageing and sustainability of the EU countries' pension systems, and assesses how this relationship is affected by pension system design and parameters. The findings show that there is a link between population ageing and unsustainability of pension systems; however, there are exceptions in both directions. Despite the significant problem of population ageing, pension systems of some countries are found to be sustainable and vice versa. The elements enhancing sustainability are, for example, hypothetical defined contribution accounts or linking the pension benefit or retirement age to demographic changes. The article also analyses the relative significance of population ageing determinants. Life expectancy appears to be the most significant determinant of population ageing.

The article analyzes the possible impacts of the fully-funded (FF) pension system (the so-called Chilean model), which was introduced in the Czech Republic in 2012, on future pensions of contributors to the system and on state expenditures related to the pension system reform. The author performed calculations for 3 model examples of individuals who would participate solely in the FF and also of individuals who would contribute to both the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) and the FF during their lives. The calculations in all model examples were made for 4 average real annual interest rates and for 4 standardised income levels. The income replacement rates of the examined individuals were compared with the existing PAYG and with a hypothetical balanced PAYG. The aim was to determine the minimum rate of the pension funds' appreciation from whichthe transition to the FF would be profi table for all examined individuals. The article also attempts to identify the duration of the transition period, the moment after which the FF would become budget-neutral, and the approximate cost of the transition process.

Slovak Republic as well as many other OECD countries has faced significant increase of health expenditures in last decades. Sustainability of health care public component is therefore and mainly on the ground of ageing of population a political and scientific challenge for many countries. Paper pursues ex ante sustainability of health care system in Slovak Republic. By using modified models of International Labour Organization and European Commission and exogenous macroeconomic and population expectations we forecasts revenues, expenditures and also sustainability of the health care policy scenarios until year 2030. We identified possible changes in the income and expenditures policies for the Slovak health system, which can lead to improve balance of whole system by assumed population and macroeconomic scenarios.

This paper analyzes the effects of macroeconomic shocks on the government debt dynamics in an open economy using the analytical framework of Favero and Giavazzi (2007) extended to an open economy. Applying this modelling approach to the data for the Czech Republic, the authors derive some implications for fiscal policy. The modelling framework includes structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, estimated using short-term identification restrictions, and non-linear specification of the government debt dynamics. The main variables of the analyzed system are GDP, inflation, the effective interest rate on government debt, government revenues and expenditures, the exchange rate and government debt. The estimation is carried out using the Bayesian approach. The results suggest that allowing for a non-linear dynamics in the government debt to GDP ratio could imply stronger persistence and higher volatility in the responses of government indebtedness to macroeconomic shocks. The fiscal stance of the Czech Republic seems to be most vulnerable to unexpected depreciation of the local currency, discretionary pro-cyclical increases in government expenditures, and deflationary shocks.