G17 - Financial Forecasting and SimulationReturn

Exchange rate expectations are a crucial element in the main monetary models. Therefore, this paper analyses the mechanism behind their formation. To achieve this, we analyse traditional expectation models using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the CZK/EUR currency pair. The data used cover one-year expectations in the period from January 2001 to December 2022, which are provided monthly by the Czech National Bank (CNB). The paper demonstrates the poor performance of the perfect expectation model. Furthermore, it demonstrates that traditional models, such as static, extrapolative, regressive and adaptive expectations, exhibit some explanatory power but lack robustness. The only traditional model that exhibits robustness is the model based on the UIP puzzle, which also outperforms all other traditional models when evaluated using error metrics. Based on these observations, the paper introduces a non-traditional model in which agents simply shift the current spot value by a constant into the future. This model displays robustness and outperforms the others.

One of the fundamental assumptions of the efficient market hypothesis and the modern portfolio theory are both Gaussian probability distribution and the independence of returns. This paper provides a brief historical review of efforts dealing with capital markets emphasizing their efficiency and counter-tendencies whose goal was to falsify the assumption of independence of returns and their normal distribution. This paper applies a measure of long-range dependence rediscovered and promoted by Mandelbrot to daily returns of 27 selected stock indices. This measure is called Hurst exponent and was estimated using rescaled range analysis. The results are in line with similar papers stating that the series of daily returns are prevailingly persistent which implies the presence of local trends. Such a finding falsifies the assumption of random walk in stock prices.

We study the effects of corruption on firm efficiency using a unique comprehensive dataset of private firms from 10 Central and Eastern European countries for the period from 2002 to 2013. We find that an environment characterized by a high level of corruption has an adverse effect on firm efficiency. This effect is amplified for firms with a lower propensity to behave corruptly, i.e. foreign-controlled firms, while domestically-owned firms are not penalized. At the same time, an environment characterized by considerable heterogeneity in perception of corruption is associated with an increase in firm efficiency.

Cluster Analysis of Jumps on Capital Markets We analyze the behavior and performance of multiple price jump indicators across capital markets and over time. By using high-frequency we perform cluster analysis of price jump indicators that share similar properties in terms of their performance in that they minimize Type I and Type II errors. We show that clusters of price jump indicators do not exhibit equal size. Clusters are stable across stock market indices and time. Detected numbers of price jumps are also stable over time. The recent financial crisis does not seem to affect the overall jumpiness of mature or emerging stock markets. Our results support the stress testing approach of the Basel III. Accords in that the jump component of the volatility process does not need to be treated separately for the purpose of stress testing.

This article proposes an approach to an interest rate analysis for purposes of risk management.of fi nancial portfolio consisting of assets or liabilities linked to interest rates and held to maturity in the Czech environment. Czech fi nancial market is characterized by relative underdevelopment and relatively low liquidity, and in an environment of high uncertainty due to interventions and regulations of central banks and other authorities. This article fi rst describes the volatility of the Czech koruna and euro interest rates using the GARCH model. Based on this description, relationships between levels of koruna and euro swaptions volatilities are determined. After obtaining estimates of koruna swaptions implied volatilities, the BGM interest rate model is applied to Czech koruna and euro interest rate simulations. They are then compared with the real development of given interest rates. It turns out that although the BGM model was developed for the purpose fi nancial derivatives valuation in the environment of developed and liquid fi nancial markets without signifi - cant distortions, resulting simulations are relatively good, and their use can improve interest rate risk management even in the Czech environment.

Financial stress indexes provide a new tool for regulatory and public institutions, which participate in the supervision of financial markets and in the monitoring of the development of risk in financial markets. Our paper introduced a number of methods of building the financial stress index for the Czech Republic and Hungary. We have developed our indices based on the variables representing the level of financial stress by the movement of market prices of assets, which provides a higher frequency to the measurement of financial stress in the main sectors of financial system, ie. banking, money market, currency, fixed income and equity sectors. We have than evaluated our indices by the effectiveness to identify periods of increased financial stress based on the deviation by one standard deviation of the value of the index from the median value. Comparing periods identified with this method with historical periods of increased financial stress, we came to the conclusion that my financial stress index for each country successfully identifies the development and level of stress in financial system.