G15 - International Financial MarketsReturn

Over a period of more than three decades from 1982 to 2019, this study examines the impact of financial globalization on financial development, taking into account differences between developed and developing countries. It also examines sub-indices of financial-development and provides a comprehensive perspective on the topic. The analyses in this study use the Durbin-Hausman panel cointegration test, which provides more precise and less biased results for panel data with a large number of units and the augmented mean group (AMG) estimator, which combines the advantages of both fixed-effects and random-effects estimators to provide more efficient and robust forecasts. Empirical findings reveal a long-run association between financial development and financial globalization across both developed and developing economies. Notably, while the coefficients of this relationship are consistently positive in both groups, statistical significance is observed only in developed countries. This result implies that the positive effect of financial globalization on financial development is more pronounced in developed countries. It also points to the importance of market participants in developed and developing countries making financial decisions in line with their countries' level of development.

Decentralized finance (DeFi) is a brand-new disruptive procedure that encourages the use of blockchain technology for developing and distributing a variety of financial goods and services. This study investigates the time-varying and asymmetric interplay between DeFi and CEE stock returns, concentrated around the COVID-19 outbreak and the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. While the associations between other cryptocurrencies and conventional assets have been studied, DeFi assets have not. For this purpose, we employ the multivariate DECO-GARCH model and cross-quantilogram framework. The results reveal a positive equicorrelation between DeFi and CEE stock market returns. Notably, the influence of DeFi on CEE stock markets is greater during the COVID-19 outbreak and the Russo-Ukrainian conflict than in the other periods. Furthermore, the cross-quantilogram estimations uncover that CEE stock markets depend less on the DeFi market at longer lag lengths. This means that the diversification benefits of DeFi against CEE stock market returns are more important for long-run investment horizons. In general, our research offers a new understanding of dependence structures, which might help investors make better investment decisions and direct their trading strategies.

Analysis of Relations in Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Example of CZK/EUR Exchange Rate The aim of the paper is to make an empirical verification of both concepts of the validity of uncovered interest rate parity, ex post and ex ante, using the predicted CZK/EUR exchange rate (for one month and one year) as a proxy variable for market expectations. We formulate the difference between the econometric procedures applied in the case of stationary and non-stationary time series. We perform a cointegration analysis and empirical verification of the error correction model, where PRIBOR interest rates and the actual and expected development of the CZK/EUR spot rate act as endogenous variables. The foreign EURIBOR interest rate (one-month and one-year) is considered an exogenous variable in our analysis, as we do not assume the influence of the Czech economy on this interest rate. We have found that long-term cointegration relations within the uncovered interest rate parity are determined by the inflation-targeting policy pursued by the CNB since 1998. In short-term relations, the foreign EURIBOR interest rate determines the development of the domestic PRIBOR interest rate. The development of the CZK/EUR spot exchange rate is sensitive to changes in the VIX global financial risk indicator. Growth of the VIX indicator leads to a weakening of the Czech koruna on the one-month time horizon and to its retrospective strengthening over the one-year time horizon. Changes in the expected CZK/EUR spot exchange rate respond in a corrective way to previous changes in expectations, in the case of both month- ly and annual forecast horizons. The depreciation (appreciation) of the CZK/EUR spot ex-change rate is associated with the subsequent expected depreciation (appreciation) of the ko- runa exchange rate. This fact signals the adaptability of exchange rate expectations over the monthly and annual forecast horizons.

Due to progressing globalisation and deepening integration of global financial markets, the topic of relations between individual markets has got into the centre of attention of many economists. Especially on the stock markets, we can observe a tendency of the more developed markets to affect developments on the less developed markets. This is also valid for stock markets of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, the V4 countries included. In the case of returns and volatilities of the V4 stock markets, it is possible to expect a strong influence of the German stock market. We follow this influence using the Granger causality. Our analysis shows that in the period 1999-2018, the German DAX stock index was Granger-causing the development of the Czech (PX), Hungarian (BUX) and Polish (WIG 20) stock indices, while this relation was not confirmed for DAX and the Slovak stock index SAX. However, the analysis of two sub-periods (1999-2007 and 2010-2018) shows slightly different results.

We study the effects of corruption on firm efficiency using a unique comprehensive dataset of private firms from 10 Central and Eastern European countries for the period from 2002 to 2013. We find that an environment characterized by a high level of corruption has an adverse effect on firm efficiency. This effect is amplified for firms with a lower propensity to behave corruptly, i.e. foreign-controlled firms, while domestically-owned firms are not penalized. At the same time, an environment characterized by considerable heterogeneity in perception of corruption is associated with an increase in firm efficiency.

Cluster Analysis of Jumps on Capital Markets We analyze the behavior and performance of multiple price jump indicators across capital markets and over time. By using high-frequency we perform cluster analysis of price jump indicators that share similar properties in terms of their performance in that they minimize Type I and Type II errors. We show that clusters of price jump indicators do not exhibit equal size. Clusters are stable across stock market indices and time. Detected numbers of price jumps are also stable over time. The recent financial crisis does not seem to affect the overall jumpiness of mature or emerging stock markets. Our results support the stress testing approach of the Basel III. Accords in that the jump component of the volatility process does not need to be treated separately for the purpose of stress testing.

Stock market integration of CEE-4 (the so-called Visegrad group or V4) and G7 countries is examined during the period from January 4, 1998 to August 5, 2012. As a proxy of integration we use dynamic conditional correlations estimated in the standard DCC and asymmetric DCC model framework. It is showed that during the recent financial crisis, conditional correlations between the CEE-4 and developed markets have increased more significantly than after the entry of the CEE-4 countries into the European Union. Finally, the estimated correlations exhibit significant relationship with conditional volatility with a positive feedback. This provides an evidence of strengthening relationships between markets under the study during the more volatile periods.

In this paper, we employ the high-frequency data from Prague Stock Exchange (PSE) and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to analyse the variation in extreme price movements and market volatility around the period of fall of Lehman Brothers. The sample ranges from January 2008 to July 2009. We employ the price jump indicators optimal with respect to Type-I and Type-II errors. The former one shows an increase in market volatility and extreme price movements during financial distress, while the later one distinguishes extreme price movements and shows that they do not react in the long-run to fi nancial distress at PSE, while for the matured US market suggests a company/sector-specific reaction. We analyse behaviour of extreme price movements with respect to CDS. Our results suggest that both markets are different - extreme price movements at PSE are independent of CDS movements, while those at NYSE show a sector/company specific reactions to CDS.

In this paper, we introduce a new measure of capital market efficiency. For its construction, we use the approaches of fractal dimension, Hurst exponent and entropy. The method is applied on 41 stock indices from the beginning of 2000 till the end of August 2011 and interesting results are found ? the analyzed indices are not self-affine; for the majority of indices, the deviation from the efficient market is dominated by local inefficiencies; and the most efficient capital markets are the stock indices of the most developed countries (FTSE, SPX, NIKKEI and DAX).

In this paper we analyze the dynamic conditional correlations between CEE stock markets (also known as countries from Vysehrad Group - V4) and developed European stock markets, with German DAX utilized as a benchmark. Our methodology is based on the DCC MV-GARCH approach. It is shown that the dynamic conditional correlations exhibit statistically significant growth after the integration of CEE countries to European Union, i.e. after the May 2004. The only index not exhibiting this trend is the Slovak SAX index.

Long-term memory processes have been extensively examined in recent literature as they provide simple way to test for predictabilty in the underlying process. However, most of the literature interprets the results of estimated Hurst exponent simply by its comparison to its asymptotic limit of 0.5. Therefore, we use moving block bootstrap method for rescaled range and periodogram method. In our analysis of evolution of Hurst exponent between 1997 and 2009, we show that PX experienced persistent behavior which weakened in time. Nevertheless, the returns of PX remain close to confidence interval separating independent and persistent behavior.

We analyze effect of intraday information flow in three emerging EU stock markets-the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. We use five-minute intraday data on stock market index returns and 15 types of EU and U.S. macroeconomic announcements during 2004-2007. We measure each announcement as its difference from market expectation. Mean and variance equations are jointly estimated. We bring evidence of strong spillovers from matured stock markets as well as effects of the macroeconomic news originating thereby. We find varying effects of the real economy news. Information on current account and prices has strong effect across all markets. We find limited evidence of the economic climate news and no evidence of the monetary announcements. Volatility of the returns is accounted for at the beginning and end of the trading session and it declines dramatically during the rest of the day. The three emerging markets react to information flow in a similar manner as matured markets.

The article deals with the evaluation of the foreign exchange market integration of the new EU Member States - the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The main aim of this paper is to introduce and to test, if the Central-European sentiment on the foreign exchange market exists and how strong it is. We apply the analysis of harmonizing (by means of standard and rolling correlation analysis), the concept of beta-convergence (through the use of the standard and rolling correlation analysis, state-space model and panel regression analysis), which could identify the speed of financial integration and the concept of sigma-convergence, which could extrapolate the degree of financial integration. We find that from the entry to the EU in May 2004 the mutual relationship with Central-European currencies relative to euro significantly increase.

In attempts to explain the mechanism of a financial crisis of the third generation, the basic problem is to specify the basic causes of its emergence. In the text of the paper we have formulated a hypothesis saying that the basic cause of the emergence of a systemic financial crisis of the Asian type is an overall unsound indebtedness, initiated - using the terminology of a monetary theory of cycles - by malinvestment, caused by an excessive credit boom. If these investments are financed through credits, their systematic liquidation leads not only to recession, but also to the development of unsound indebtedness and to a massive credit non-reimbursement. If the credits are granted in the local currency, there develops an internal debt problem, a banking crisis and subsequently a monetary crisis. If the credits are given in foreign currencies, there develops an external debt problem, a monetary crisis and subsequently a banking crisis. Debt, banking and monetary problems are mutually amplified and lead to the emergence of a systemic financial crisis.