E37 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and ApplicationsNávrat zpět

This article addresses the emergence of double-digit inflation in the Baltic states during 2022 and 2023, following decades of price stability. Utilizing monthly data spanning from January 2010 to February 2023, our study aims to comprehensively analyse the inflation dynamics in the Baltic context, considering both domestic and global factors. Through the application of the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) methodologies, we identify significant influences such as exchange rate fluctuations, food and energy price movements and geopolitical events, notably the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Our findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the determinants of inflation in the Baltic region, offering insights essential for informed policymaking aimed at mitigating vulnerabilities to future inflationary shocks.

The article deals with the question of whether there is an equilibrium relationship between long-term interest rates and rental yields or real estate prices. In the theoretical part, an arbitrage relationship with the real estate market is shown, emphasizing the importance of nominal interest rates in the house price-setting process. Simplified theoretical relationships are empirically tested on panel data for a number of countries in the world. The results suggest that there is a cointegrating relationship between long-term interest rates and rental yields. Rental yields tend to adjust to interest rates over a long time period dominantly through house price movements, not rent price movements. Furthermore, among other things, we found that house prices are positively influenced by lower investment freedom or higher ratio of people aged 20-34 to people 65+. Finally, a simple model-based outlook for house prices in Czechia is shown, suggesting a "soft landing" of house prices in 2023 and following years.

This analysis seeks to map the level of reconciliation of work and family life of women in the Czech Republic. Using a HP filter, the authors estimate and compare the development of the NAIRU on the labour market in the case of women compared with men aged 20–49. The authors also quantify the impact and character of selected government policy measures on the NAIRU of women in the 20–49 age group. An explanation is offered for negative and positive influence. While the unemployment rate measured for the age group 15–64 reached 6.9%, it was 7% for the age group 20–49 and 8.6% for women. An increase in the NAIRU of women aged between 20 and 49 given by reconciliation of work and family life was identified, e.g., for the men’s part-time job category or social care facilities category. To the contrary, a decrease in the NAIRU of women (20-49) was identified for the following categories: number of hours worked per week, number of pupils in after-lessons school clubs, women’s part-time jobs, number of children enrolled in kindergartens, and day care service spending.

Cyclical behavior of the economy can be monitored and predicted with the help of composite leading indicator (CLI) which is an aggregate index of several individual indicators and is statistical relevant for analyzing and forecasting of reference series. This article is focus on construction of CLI for Slovakia and its changes over time. For its construction is used combination of methodologies of OECD and Institute of Informatics and Statistics (Infostat). These methodologies are based on chosen reference series and 124 economic indicators, filtering of time series with Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP filter), normalization of time series, cross correlation and creation of CLI with system of same and different weights. On the base of economic indicator analysis are selected different groups of leading cyclical indicators in seven different time periods. It means that exist changes of CLI composition over time. The best predictable abilities of Slovak business cycle has CLI constructed from time period 2010-2015. On this base was created short-term forecast of Slovak business cycle which supposed economic grow in second and third quarter 2017. Positive GDP growth expectations create space for new investment opportunities as well as government restrictions on public expenditures. The result of our analysis indicate that in the future we can expect new changes in composition of CLI for Slovak economy.

The forecast-based reaction function of the European Central Bank (ECB) is estimated in this paper and the change in the monetary policy regime is discussed in the context of the current economic crisis. ECB/Eurosystem staff projections database is utilized in order to estimate the rule. The advantage of using this database is demonstrated by comparing the results of econometric estimation utilizing these data on projections with the results obtained by popular method of using future values as proxies for expectations. This popular method is shown to be inadequate in this paper not only by econometric verification of alternative forms of the estimated reaction function. Its inadequacy is demonstrated also by analyzing statistical properties of the time series and by showing that standard econometric assumptions do not hold when using future values as proxies for expectations. It is further shown that current values are more suitable proxies for expectations than values actually observed in the future. This fact provides an answer to the question analyzed recently by Arlt, Mandel (2012), (2014) who investigated how is it possible that simple backward-looking rules perform extremely well when describing forward-looking behavior of central banks.

The aim of the article is to describe effects of selected institutional factors on structural and cyclical unemployment. The theoretical and methodological basis of institutional aspects of the labour market functioning draws from a number of previously published studies. Factors are modified for national conditions of the Visegrad Group (hereinafter V4). The article compares NAIRU estimates of previously fine-tuned models with estimates of models extended by selected institutional factors. The difference between these groups will then be compared with development of relevant variables of the real economy. That will allow us to determine whether the institutional factor infl uenced structural or cyclical unemployment. We will also specify the intensity of its negative influence on the two types of unemployment. The final results of the analysis are compared with results of previous studies and world literature data.

Economic education is considered of prime importance nowadays with direct implications for effectiveness of monetary policy. We aim to verify with an application of experimental method, whether economic education acquired has weakening or even suppressive effects on recently resurrected phenomenon of money illusion. If our hypothesis will be proved, previous evidence about signifi cant indirect effects of money illusion, causing significant long-lasting deviations of the economy from equilibrium after the shock, might be significantly alleviated, weakening thereby predictions of the New Keynesian model. Our findings suggest that even well-educated individuals do not have the ability to pierce the veil of money and do not form expectations properly after a fully anticipated monetary shock. As a result we can infer that money illusion is multiplied and nominal rigidities are intensifi ed even in the economy that consists of well-educated individuals.

This article's objective is to suggest and create the composite leading indicators and their importance for monitoring in a short term prediction of economic cycles in the V4. We describe in detail the methodologies of OECD and Eurostat, which deal with the prediction of the economic cycles in the V4 countries through CLI. The relation of 475 selected economic indicators and reference series, which represent the economic cycle of the V4 countries, is analyzed in the empirical part of this article. Based on the performed analysis, we define groups of leading, parallel and lagged indicators. We choose those leading indicators that are the most appropriate for the creation of CLI. Then the created CLIs and their prediction abilities are studied through the values of crosscorrelations. Besides the creation of our own CLIs, we also compare them with CLIs of Eurostat and OECD and create the conclusions on suitability resp. unacceptability of the individual CLIs for a given V4 country.

It is generally accepted, that output gap belongs to the main indicators of inflationary pressures and is often used by central banks when executing monetary policy. When output gap is positive, there are inflationary pressures in economy and inflation will rise. In case, that there is negative output gap in economy, inflation will decline. The aim of this paper is to find whether there is relationship between these two variables for Czech economy. To find the answer, two gap models following Coe, McDermott (1997) and Claus (2000a) will be used - with level of the output gap and change in the output gap. All tests confirm, that central bank should use it as indicator of inflation.

This paper analyzes the effects of macroeconomic shocks on the government debt dynamics in an open economy using the analytical framework of Favero and Giavazzi (2007) extended to an open economy. Applying this modelling approach to the data for the Czech Republic, the authors derive some implications for fiscal policy. The modelling framework includes structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, estimated using short-term identification restrictions, and non-linear specification of the government debt dynamics. The main variables of the analyzed system are GDP, inflation, the effective interest rate on government debt, government revenues and expenditures, the exchange rate and government debt. The estimation is carried out using the Bayesian approach. The results suggest that allowing for a non-linear dynamics in the government debt to GDP ratio could imply stronger persistence and higher volatility in the responses of government indebtedness to macroeconomic shocks. The fiscal stance of the Czech Republic seems to be most vulnerable to unexpected depreciation of the local currency, discretionary pro-cyclical increases in government expenditures, and deflationary shocks.

The economic development points out the importance of the development study of sectors and branches of economics, because they can deepen or moderate volatility of the economic cycle. The article aims at mapping the rate of unemployment in the primary, secondary and tertiary sector in the Czech Republic. With using the HP filter we estimate NAIRU. The comparison of the actual rate of unemployment with the average value NAIRU was used for the specification of the economic cycle. We compare the rate of unemployment, NAIRU and unemployment gaps in sectors with the average value on the national level too.

This paper examines definitions and assessments of central bank aggressiveness. It shows theoretical reasons why there is certain minimal threshold value if CB wants to stabilize price level and on the other hand, why excessive reactions are suboptimal. The empirical part suggests that aggressiveness could be measured by defining certain indicators, based on variability of interest rates, inflation and output gap. The results are reported for countries with independent monetary policy as well as for countries in the eurozone, which has handed their monetary independency to ECB.

The paper consists of four parts each of them devoted to a practical aspect of inflation targeting as conducted by the Czech National Bank. The first part outlines the reasons that led to the adoption of this monetary regime and summarises other advantages for effective and transparent decision-making. The second part addresses the issue of missing inflation targets. It is argued that simple confrontation of targets with actual behaviour of inflation may give a distorted view about the actual performance of monetary policy. The third part discusses a subtle methodological controversy about the difference between so-called escape clauses on the one hand and net inflation on the other. In the last section the author presents his critical view about the role of unconditional forecast in its capacity to indicate future interest rate decisions and to provide a realistic description of transmission mechanism in a small open economy.