Politická ekonomie 2025, 73(3):418-446 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1454

Energy Security Risk Across the European Union: Converging or Diverging?

Caner Demir ORCID..., Raif Cergibozan ORCID...
Caner Demir (corresponding author), Manisa Celal Bayar University, Department of Economics, Turkey
Raif Cergibozan, Kirklareli University, Department of Economics, Turkey

In this paper, we present the results of a study examining whether the European Union, where countries act in common on many issues such as monetary policy, abolition of borders and mobilization of labour and capital, also constitutes a union in terms of energy security. From this point of view, whether the energy security risk in the European Union has converged or not is tested by using various analysis methods covering the period 1980-2018 for 17 EU countries. The findings of the study not only reveal whether individual countries converge to the group average but also show whether the group as a whole forms a convergent outlook. The linear unit root analysis indicates that each country is in a stochastic convergence process towards the group average. In addition, time series beta convergence analysis, which takes into account country- -specific structural break periods, is applied and the convergent-divergent situation of each country before and after the break is revealed. Following this determination of individual countries, whether the sample as a whole constitutes a convergent process is tested with sigma and panel beta convergence models and it is determined that the 17 countries subject to the analysis form a convergent outlook as a whole. A robustness check is also made via a nonlinear time series analysis and the previous findings are confirmed.

Keywords: Energy security, European Union, convergence, divergence, time series analysis
JEL classification: C22, P18, Q40, Q47

Vloženo: 20. prosinec 2023; Revidováno: 4. červenec 2024; Přijato: 12. srpen 2024; Zveřejněno online: 11. březen 2025; Zveřejněno: 19. červen 2025  Zobrazit citaci

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago Chicago Notes IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Demir, C., & Cergibozan, R. (2025). Energy Security Risk Across the European Union: Converging or Diverging? Politická ekonomie, 73(3), 418-446. doi: 10.18267/j.polek.1454
Stáhnout citaci
  • BibTeX (.bib)
  • Bookends (.ris)
  • EasyBib (.ris)
  • EndNote (.enw)
  • EndNote 8 (.xml)
  • ISI WoS (.isi)
  • Medlars (.medlars)
  • Mendeley (.ris)
  • MODS (.xml)
  • Papers (.ris)
  • RefWorks (.txt)
  • RefManager (.ris)
  • RIS (.ris)
  • MS Word (.xml)
  • Zotero (.ris)
    • Zobrazit celý článek

    Reference

    1. Adali, Z., Toygar, A., Yildirim, U. (2023). Assessing the stochastic behavior of fishing grounds footprint of top ten fishing countries. Regional Studies in Marine Science, 63, 103015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsma.2023.103015 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    2. Afonso, A., Rault, C. (2009). Spend-and-Tax: A Panel Data Investigation for the EU. Economics Bulletin, 29(4), 2542-2548. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    3. Afonso, A., Jalles, J. T. (2016). The elusive character of fiscal sustainability. Applied Economics, 48(28), 2651-2664. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1128074 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    4. Ahiakpor, J. C., Amirkhalkhali, S. (1989). On the difficulty of eliminating deficits with higher taxes: Some Canadian evidence. Southern Economic Journal, 56(1), 24-31. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    5. Anderson, W., Wallace, M. S., Warner J. T. (1986). Government spending and taxation: What causes what? Southern Economic Journal, 52(3), 630-639. https://doi.org/10.2307/1059262 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    6. Aydin, M., Pata, U. K., Inal, V. (2022). Economic policy uncertainty and stock prices in BRIC countries: evidence from asymmetric frequency domain causality approach. Applied Economic Analysis, 30(89), 114-129. https://doi.org/10.1108/AEA-12-2020-0172 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    7. Aydin, M. (2024). The dynamic relationships between nuclear energy consumption, nuclear reactors and load capacity factor: time and frequency domain panel data analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 31(60), 67232-67243. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-29723-y Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    8. Aydin, M., Bozatli, O. (2023). The impacts of the refugee population, renewable energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth on health expenditure in Turkey: new evidence from Fourier-based analyses. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(14), 41286-41298. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-25181-8 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    9. Baghestani, H., McNown, R. (1994). Do revenues or spendings respond to budgetary disequilibria?, Southern Economic Journal, 61(2), 311-322. https://doi.org/10.2307/1059979 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    10. Balsalobre-Lorente, D., Topaloglu, E. E., Nur, T., et al. (2023). Exploring the linkage between financial development and ecological footprint in APEC countries: A novel view under corruption perception and environmental policy stringency. Journal of Cleaner Production, 414(33), 137686. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137686 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    11. Becker, R., Enders, W., Lee, J. (2006). A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00478.x Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    12. Bella, M., Quintieri, B. (1996). Evidence from the Italian case. In: Capros, P., Meulders, D. Budgetary Policy Modelling: Public expenditures, pp. 208-227. London and New York: Routledge. ISBN 978-0-415-14235-9.
    13. Blackley, P. R. (1986). Causality Between Revenues and Spendings and the Size of the Federal Budget. Government Finance Quarterly, 14(2), 139-156. https://doi.org/10.1177/109114218601400202 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    14. Bozatli, O., Bal, H., Albayrak, M. (2023). Testing the export-led growth hypothesis in Turkey: New evidence from time and frequency domain causality approaches. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 32(6), 835-853. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2022.2144932 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    15. Breitung, J., Candelon, B. (2006). Testing for short-and long-run causality: a frequency-domain approach. Journal of Econometrics, 132(2), 363-378. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2005.02.004 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    16. Buchanan, J. M., Wagner, R. E., Buchanan, J. M., et al. (1978). The political biases of Keynesian economics. Fiscal Responsibility in Constitutional Democracy, 1(1), 79-117. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-7125-0 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    17. Chang, T., Ho, Y. H. (2002). A Note on Testing Tax-and-Spend, Spend-and-Tax or Fiscal Synchronization: The Case of China. Journal of Economic Development, 27(1), 151-160.
    18. Chang, T., Liu, W. R., Caudill, S. B. (2002). Tax-and-spend, spend-and-tax, or fiscal synchronization: new evidence for ten countries. Applied Economics, 34(12), 1553-1561. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840110103265 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    19. Delena, M., Magazzino, C. (2012). Government Spending and Revenue in Italy 1862-1993. Economic Notes, 41(3), 145-172. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    20. Kirikkaleli, D., Ozbeser, B. (2022). New insights into an old issue: exploring the nexus between government spendings and economic growth in the United States. Applied Economics Letters, 29(2), 129-134. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2020.1859448 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    21. Ewing, B. T., Payne, J. E., Thompson, M. A., et al. (2006). Government Spendings and Revenues: Evidence from Asymmetric Modeling. Southern Economic Journal, 73(1), 190-197. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2325-8012.2006.tb00765.x Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    22. Friedman, M. (2019). The limitations of tax limitation. In: Haveman R. H., Zellner, B. B. Policy Studies: Review Annual. New York: Routledge. ISBN 978-1351319881.
    23. Garcia, S., Hénin, P. Y. (1999). Balancing budget through tax increases or spending cuts: is it neutral? Economic Modelling, 16(4), 591-612. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    24. Geweke, J. (1982). Measurement of linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series. Journal of The American Statistical Association, 77(378), 304-313. https://doi.org/10.2307/2287238 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    25. Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 37(3), 424-438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    26. Gurdal, T., Aydin, M., Inal, V. (2021). The relationship between tax revenue, government expenditure, and economic growth in G7 countries: new evidence from time and frequency domain approaches. Economic Change and Restructuring, 54(6), 305-337. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-020-09280-x Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    27. Hoover, K. D., Sheffrin, S. M. (1992). Causation, Spending, and Taxes: Sand in the Sandbox or Tax Collector for the Welfare State? American Economic Review, 82(1), 225-248.
    28. Hosoya, Y. (1991). The decomposition and measurement of the interdependence between second-order stationary process. Probability Theory and Related Fields, 88(1), 429-444. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01192551 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    29. Koç, P., İzgi Şahpaz, K. (2023). Analysis of The Causality Relationship Among Digitalisation, Unemployment Rate, and Divorce Rates: A Research on Türkiye. Sosyoekonomi, 31(56), 151-169. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.02.07 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    30. Koren, S., Stiassny, A. (1998). Tax and spend, or spend and tax? An international study. Journal of Policy Modeling, 20(2), 163-191. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0161-8938(96)00073-7 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    31. Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C., Schmidt, P., et al. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    32. Linhares, F., Nojosa, G. (2020). Changes in the tax-spend nexus: Evidence from Selected European Countries. Economics Bulletin, 40(4), 3077-3087.
    33. Magazzino, C., Brady, G. L., Forte, F. (2019). A panel data analysis of the fiscal sustainability of G-7 countries. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 20(C), e00127. ttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2019.e00127 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    34. Manage, N., Marlow, M. L. (1986). The causal relation between federal expenditures and receipts. Southern Economic Journal, 52(3), 617-629. https://doi.org/10.2307/1059261 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    35. Marlow, M. L., Manage, N. (1987). Spendings and Receipts: Testing for Causality in State and Local Government Finances. Government Choice, 53(3), 243-255. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    36. Meltzer, A. H., Richard, S. F. (1983). Tests of a rational theory of the size of government. Government Choice, 41(3), 403-418. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    37. Miller, S. M., Russek, F. S. (1990). Co-Integration and Error-Correction Models: The Temporal Causality between Government Taxes and Spending. Southern Economic Journal, 57(1), 221-229. https://doi.org/10.2307/1060491 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    38. Mutascu, M. (2015). A bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis of government revenues and spendings in the PIIGS countries. Economics Bulletin, 35(3), 2000-2004.
    39. Mutascu, M. (2016). Government revenues and spendings in the East European economies: A bootstrap panel granger causality approach. Eastern European Economics, 54(6), 489-502. https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2016.1204237 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    40. Musgrave, R. (1966). Principles of budget determination. In: Cameron, H. A., Henderson, W. Public finance: Selected readings, pp. 15-27. New York: Random House, NY.
    41. Nazlioglu, S., Gormus, N. A., Soytas, U. (2016). Oil prices and real estate investment trusts (REITs): Gradual-shift causality and volatility transmission analysis. Energy Economics, 60, 168-175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.09.009 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    42. Owoye, O. (1995). The Causal Relationship Between Taxes and Spendings in the G-7 Countries: Cointegration and Error-Correction Models. Applied Economics Letters, 2(1), 19-22. https://doi.org/10.1080/135048595357744 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    43. Owoye, O., Onafowora, O. A. (2011). The relationship between tax revenues and government expenditures in European Union and non-European Union OECD countries. Government Finance Review, 39(3), 429-461. https://doi.org/10.1177/1091142110386211 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    44. Payne, J. E. (1997). The tax-spend debate: the case of Canada. Applied Economics Letters, 4(6), 381-386. https://doi.org/10.1080/135048597355357 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    45. Paleologou, S. M. (2013). Asymmetries in the revenue-spending nexus: A tale of three countries. Economic Modelling, 30(1), 52-60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.022 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    46. Peacock, A. T., Wiseman, J. (1961). Front matter, the growth of government expenditure in the United Kingdom. In: The growth of government expenditure in the United Kingdom. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
    47. Ram, R. (1988). Additional Evidence on Causality between Government Revenue and Government Spending. Southern Economic Journal, 54(3), 763-769. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    48. Reddick, G. C. (2003). Long-Run and Short-Run Budgeting: Theories and Empirical Evidence for the Canadian Provinces. International Journal of Government Administration, 26(4), 427-453. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    49. Sakamoto, N., Takimoto, T. (2015). Tax, spend, and democracy indices in Japan. Yamagata: Yamagata University.
    50. Saunoris, J. W., Payne, J. E. (2010). Tax more or spend less? Asymmetries in the UK revenue-spending nexus. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32(4), 478-487. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2010.05.012 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    51. Toda, H. Y., Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    52. Trachanas, E., Katrakilidis, C. (2013). Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy, Greece and Spain. Journal of Policy Modeling, 35(5), 730-749. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2013.03.013 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    53. Von Furstenberg, G. M., Green, R. J., Jeong, J. H. (1986). Tax and Spend, or Spend and Tax? The Review of Economics and Statistics, 68(2), 179-188. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    54. Vamvoukas, G. (2012). Panel Data Modelling and The Tax-Spend Controversy in the Euro Zone. Applied Economics, 44(31), 4073-4085. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.587777 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    55. Young, T. (2009). Tax-Spend or Fiscal Illusion? Cato Journal, 29(3), 469-484.
    56. Westerlund, J., Mahdavi, S., Firoozi, F. (2011). The tax-spending nexus: Evidence from a panel of US state-local governments. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 885-890. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.10.016 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    57. Wang, Y., Wei, W. X. (2023). The Nexus between Federal Revenue and Spending in Canada: A Time-Frequency Perspective. Statistics, Politics and Policy, 14(1), 113-123. https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2022-0021 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    58. Yilanci, V., Aslan, M., Ozgur, O. (2018). Testing the validity of PPP theory for African countries. Applied Economics Letters, 25(18), 1273-1277. 10.1080/13504851.2017.1418066 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    59. Türkyilmaz, S., Özer, M., Kutlu, E. (2007). Döviz Kuru Oynakliği ile İthalat ve İhracat Arasindaki İlişkilerin Zaman Serisi Analizi. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), 133-150.
    60. Wilson, P. (2001). Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance for Dynamic Asian Economies-Does the J-Curve Exist for Singapore, Malaysia, and Korea? Open Economies Review, 12(4), 389-413. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1017982901034 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    61. Wolfe, M. (1955). The Concept of Economic Sectors. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69(3), 402-420. https://doi.org/10.2307/1885848 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    62. Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge: The MIT Press. ISBN 9780262232586.
    63. Yalçin, C., Saygili, Ş., Cihan, C., et al. (2012). Türkiye İmalat Sanayiinde İthal Girdi Kullanimi. Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 27(321), 9-38. https://doi.org/10.3848/iif.2012.321.3544 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    64. Yamak, R., Korkmaz, A. (2011). Reel Döviz Kuru ve Diş Ticaret Dengesi İlişkisi. Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, 2.
    65. Yazici, M., Ahmad Klasra, M. (2010). Import Content of Exports and J-Curve Effect. Applied Economics, 42(6), 769-776. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701720846 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    66. Yülek, M. (2019). Uluslarin Yükselişi: İmalat, Ticaret, Sanayi Politikasi ve Ekonomik Kalkinma. Istanbul: Kronik Kitap. ISBN 9786057635044.
    67. Yülek, M. A. (2014). Hoş Olmayan Bir Reel Kur Aritmetiği. Business and Economics Research Journal, 5(3), 1-13.
    68. Yurtoğlu, Y. (2017). Reel Döviz Kuru ile İhracat Arasindaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneğin (1997-2015). Gazi İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 3(1), 71-88.
    69. Zengin, A. (2001). Reel Döviz Kuru Hareketleri ve Diş Ticaret Fiyatlari (Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Ampirik Bulgular). Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2(2), 27-41.
    70. Zia, U., Mahmood, Z. (2013). Exchange Rate Depreciation and Export Price Competitiveness: The Case of Pakistani Manufacturing Industries. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 18(4), 529-542. https://doi.org/10.1080/13547860.2012.742722 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...

    Tento článek je publikován v režimu tzv. otevřeného přístupu k vědeckým informacím (Open Access), který je distribuován pod licencí Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY NC ND 4.0), která umožňuje nekomerční distribuci, reprodukci a změny, pokud je původní dílo řádně ocitováno. Není povolena distribuce, reprodukce nebo změna, která není v souladu s podmínkami této licence.


    Zpět na obsah