Q47 - Energy ForecastingReturn

In this paper, we present the results of a study examining whether the European Union, where countries act in common on many issues such as monetary policy, abolition of borders and mobilization of labour and capital, also constitutes a union in terms of energy security. From this point of view, whether the energy security risk in the European Union has converged or not is tested by using various analysis methods covering the period 1980-2018 for 17 EU countries. The findings of the study not only reveal whether individual countries converge to the group average but also show whether the group as a whole forms a convergent outlook. The linear unit root analysis indicates that each country is in a stochastic convergence process towards the group average. In addition, time series beta convergence analysis, which takes into account country- -specific structural break periods, is applied and the convergent-divergent situation of each country before and after the break is revealed. Following this determination of individual countries, whether the sample as a whole constitutes a convergent process is tested with sigma and panel beta convergence models and it is determined that the 17 countries subject to the analysis form a convergent outlook as a whole. A robustness check is also made via a nonlinear time series analysis and the previous findings are confirmed.

The transition towards green and clean energy sources is the need of the day and a key target for several economies across the globe. Besides, emerging economies also aim to minimize fossil fuel dependence, promoting the adoption of green electricity. However, several obstacles, including governance, corruption and economic-related issues, are forthcoming in attaining sustainability in the context of green energy. This research examines seven emerging economies from 1990 to 2020. The study uses novel panel diagnostic assessment approaches, which validate the slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence and confirm the cointegration between the study variables. Employing the method of moments quantile regression, this research concludes that corruption and governance quality adversely influence the transition to green electricity. On the other hand, the influence of economic complexity, research and development expenditures and per capita GDP is positive and significant. These results are robust as validated by estimators such as mean group and fully modified ordinary least squares. Furthermore, a two-way Granger causality exists between regressors and green energy transition, which allows this research to offer appropriate policy implications. This study recommends improving institutions, strengthening bureaucracy, enhancing accountability and investing in research and development, green technologies and human capital to encourage green energy transition.

The article is focused on the total historical and future costs of supporting photovoltaic elektricity generation in the Czech Republic. The model estimation of these costs is accompanied by methodologically unified comparison with cost of the support of other renewable energy resources. We find that as long as the goals of Czech National Action Plan for Renewable Energy will be implemented, the costs on photovoltaics support will account for more than one half of all costs on renewable energy, combined production of electricity and heat and other secondary resources. The article also provides brief overview of the photovoltaic market in the Czech Republic with its past, present and possible future developments.