Politická ekonomie 2023, 71(3):319-341 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1390
Multiscale Interdependence Between Consumer and Producer Prices in Emerging Eastern European Countries
- a Novi Sad School of Business (corresponding author), Novi Sad, Serbia
- b Academy of Applied Technical Studies, Belgrade, Serbia
- c Educons University, Project Management College, Belgrade, Serbia
This paper investigates multiscale causal relations between consumer and producer prices in eight emerging Eastern European countries. We use wavelet coherence to measure the multiscale nexus between inflation types, and wavelet-based Bayesian quantile regression (BQR) to inspect the spillover effect. Wavelet coherence plots indicate low coherence in the short time horizon (up to two months) and higher coherence in the longer time horizons, particularly from four mounts onwards. Areas of very high coherence are found around the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Bidirectional spillover effect exists in all the countries except Poland and Hungary. In the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Estonia and Slovenia, producer prices have the upper hand over consumer prices, and this effect is stronger in the longer time horizons, which is in line with the wavelet coherence results. Only in the case of Lithuania, we find that consumer prices have a stronger effect on producer prices than vice versa, and this happens in the short term. In the case of Latvia, the BQR results are inconclusive because both inflation types have a precedence, but in different time horizons.
Keywords: Consumer and producer prices, spillover effect, wavelet coherence, Bayesian quantile regression, emerging East European countries
JEL classification: C11, C82, E32
Vloženo: 7. červen 2022; Revidováno: 18. leden 2023; Přijato: 6. únor 2023; Zveřejněno online: 12. květen 2023; Zveřejněno: 26. červen 2023 Zobrazit citaci
| ACS | AIP | APA | ASA | Harvard | Chicago | Chicago Notes | IEEE | ISO690 | MLA | NLM | Turabian | Vancouver |
Reference
- Benoit, D. F., Van den Poel, D. (2017). bayesQR: A Bayesian approach to quantile regression. Journal of Statistical Software, 76(7), 1-32, https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v076.i07
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Bhuiyan, R. A., Rahman, M. P., Saiti, B., et al. (2019). Co-movement dynamics between global sukuk and bond markets: New insights from a wavelet analysis. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 14(4), 550-581, https://doi.org/10.1108/ijoem-12-2017-0521
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Bilgili, F., Ünlü, F., Gençoğlu, P., et al. (2022). Modeling the exchange rate pass-through in Turkey with uncertainty and geopolitical risk: a Markov regime-switching approach. Applied Economic Analysis, 30(88), 52-70, https://doi.org/10.1108/AEA-08-2020-0105
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Blomberg, S. B., Harris, E. S. (1995). The Commodity-Consumer Price Connection: Fact or Fable? Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 1, 21-38.
- Cai, Y. X., Gong, Y. L., Sheng, G. Y. (2021). The gold price and the economic policy uncertainty dynamics relationship: the continuous wavelet analysis. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, 55(1), 105-116, https://doi.org/10.24818/18423264/55.1.21.07
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Caporale, G. M., Katsimi, M., Pittis, N. (2002). Causality Links between Consumer and Producer Prices: Some Empirical Evidence. Southern Economic Journal, 68(3), 703-711, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2325-8012.2002.tb00448.x
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Clark, T. E. (1999). The responses of prices at different stages of production to monetary policy shocks. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 81(3), 420-433, https://doi.org/10.1162/003465399558355
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Compains, J. M., Carreño, I. R., Gençay, R., et al. (2021). Recovering cointegration via wavelets in the presence of non-linear patterns, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 25(5), 255-265, https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2018-0120
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Cushing, M. J., McGarvey, M. G. (1990). Feedback between wholesale and consumer price inflation: a reexamination of the evidence. Southern Economic Journal, 56(4), 1059-1072, https://doi.org/10.2307/1059891
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Dąborowski, T. (2011). Slovakia's Economic Success and the Global Crisis. CES Commentary: Centre for Eastern Studies No. 19.
- Dajčman, S. (2012). The dynamics of return comovement and spillovers between the Czech and European stock markets in the period 1997-2010. Finance a úvěr - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 62(4), 368-390.
- Dajčman, S. (2013). Interdependence between some major European stock markets - A wavelet lead/lag analysis. Prague Economic Papers, 22(1), 28-49, https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.439
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Gautier, E. (2008). The behaviour of producer prices: evidence from French PPI micro data. Empirical Economics, 35(2), 301-332, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-007-0160-3
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Gulzar, S., Kayani, G. M., Xiaofeng, H., et al. (2019). Financial cointegration and spillover effect of global financial crisis: a study of emerging Asian financial markets. Economic Research - Ekonomska istraživanja, 32(1), 187-218, https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2018.1550001
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Huang, K. X. D., Liu, Z. (2005). Inflation targeting: What inflation rate to target? Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(8), 1435-1462, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.08.008
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Jammazi, R. (2012). Cross dynamics of oil-stock interactions: A redundant wavelet analysis. Energy, 44(1), 750-777, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.05.017
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Kandil, M. (2015). Monetary shifts and co-movements in spending, growth, and inflation: Evidence from developing and advanced countries. Borsa Istanbul Review, 15(2), 76-92, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2015.02.001
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Khan, K., Su, C.-W., Tao, R., et al. (2018). Producer price index and consumer price index: causality in Central and Eastern European countries. Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics), 66(4), 367-395.
- Koenker, R., Bassett Jr., G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33-50, https://doi.org/10.2307/1913643
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Kruschke, J. K., Liddell, T. M. (2018). Bayesian data analysis for newcomers. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25(1), 155-177, https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-017-1272-1
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Leith, C., Wren-Lewis, S. (2009). Taylor Rules in the Open Economy. European Economic Review, 53(8), 971-995, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2009.04.009
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Linnemann, L., Schabert, L. (2006). Monetary Policy and the Taylor Principle in Open Economies. International Finance, 9(3), 343-367, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2362.2006.00189.x
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Llosa, L.-G., Tuesta, V. (2008). Determinacy and learnability of monetary policy rules in small open economies. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40(5), 1033-1063, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2008.00145.x
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - McKnight, S. (2011). Should central banks target consumer or producer prices? International Finance, 14(3), 445-479, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2362.2011.01291.x
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Michl, A. (2019). Peníze a inflace: Ztracená kointegrace. Politická ekonomie, 67(4), 385-405, https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1255
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Njegić, J., Živkov, D., Damnjanović, J. (2017). Business cycles synchronization between the EU-15 and selected Eastern European countries - The wavelet coherence approach. Acta Oeconomica, 67(4), 539-556, https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2017.67.4.3
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - OECD (2023). OECD statistics. Paris: OECD. Available at: https://stats.oecd.org/
- Pujol, T. Griffiths, M. E. (1996). Moderate inflation in Poland: A real story. IMF Working Paper, No. 1996/057.
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Reigl, N. (2017). Forecasting the Estonian rate of inflation using factor models. Baltic Journal of Economics, 17(2), 152-189, https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099x.2017.1371976
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Shahbaz, M., Wahid, A. N. M., Haider, A. (2010). Empirical psychology between wholesale price and consumer price indices: The case of Pakistan. The Singapore Economic Review, 55(3), 537-551, https://doi.org/10.1142/s0217590810003882
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Shahbaz, M., Tiwari, A. K., Tahir, M. I. (2012). Does CPI Granger-cause WPI? New extensions from frequency domain approach in Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 1592-1597, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.016
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Stoica, O., Damian, M. (2013). The analysis of inflation rate dynamic in Central and South-Eastern Europe's states in the context of the EU accession. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 5(2), 102-110, https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v5n2p102
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Tabak, B. M., Feitosa, M. A. (2009). An analysis of the yield spread as a predictor of inflation in Brazil: evidence from a wavelets approach. Expert Systems with Applications, 36(3), 7129-7134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2008.08.073
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Tao, R., Li, Z.-Z., Li, X.-L., et al. (2018). A Reexamination of Friedman-Ball's Hypothesis in Slovakia - Evidence from Wavelet Analysis. Journal of Economic Forecasting, 21(4), 41-54.
- Tiwari, A. K. (2012). An empirical investigation of causality between producers' price and consumers' price indices in Australia in frequency domain. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 1571-1578, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.010
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Tiwari, A. K., Mutascu, M., Andries, A. M. (2013). Decomposing time-frequency relationship between producer price and consumer price indices in Romania through wavelet analysis. Economic Modelling, 31, 151-159, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.11.057
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Tiwari, A. K., Suresh, K. G., Arouri, M., et al. (2014). Causality between consumer price and producer price: Evidence from Mexico. Economic Modelling, 36, 432-440, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.09.050
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Tiits, M., Kattel, R., Kalvet, T., et al. (2008). Catching up, forging ahead or falling behind? Central and Eastern European development in 1990-2005. Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research, 21(1), 65-85, https://doi.org/10.1080/13511610802002254
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Torrence, C., Webster, P. J. (1999). Interdecadal changes in the ENSO-monsoon system. Journal of Climate, 12(8), 2679-2690, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)0122.0.co;2
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Tsiaplias, S. (2008). The CPI and other measures of Australian inflation. Australian Economic Review, 41(1), 105-113, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8462.2008.00491.x
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Živkov, D., Njegić, J., Pećanac, M. (2019). Multiscale interdependence between the major agricultural commodities. Agricultural Economics - Czech, 65(2), 82-92, https://doi.org/10.17221/147/2018-agricecon
Přejít k původnímu zdroji... - Živkov, D., Kovačević, J., Papić-Blagojević, N. (2020). Measuring the effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty on output growth in the Central and Eastern European countries. Baltic Journal of Economics, 20(2), 218-242, https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099x.2020.1846877
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
Tento článek je publikován v režimu tzv. otevřeného přístupu k vědeckým informacím (Open Access), který je distribuován pod licencí Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY NC ND 4.0), která umožňuje nekomerční distribuci, reprodukci a změny, pokud je původní dílo řádně ocitováno. Není povolena distribuce, reprodukce nebo změna, která není v souladu s podmínkami této licence.

ORCID...