Politická ekonomie, 2019 (vol. 67), issue 4

Možnosti odhadů krátkodobých makroekonomických agregátů na základě výsledků konjunkturních průzkumů

Possibilities of Estimations of Short-term Macroeconomic Aggregates Based on Business Survey Results

Luboš Marek, Stanislava Hronová, Richard Hindls

Politická ekonomie 2019, 67(4):347-370 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1243  

The aim of the article is to construct a model for estimating the quarterly gross value added (GVA) of the national economy (GDP) based on the results of business surveys (so-called confidence indicators) in industry, construction, commerce and services (incl. banking sector), and to set the forecast for four quarters ahead. The suitability of the applied approach is assessed using pairwise dependencies for individual sectors. In the case of both pairwise and multidimensional dependencies, the authors proceed from a linear dynamic model, which is a combination of ARIMA models (or SARIMA models) in conjunction with regression analysis, where the variables...

Právní nejistota v daňové oblasti a její dopady na nabídku práce v České republice

Legal Uncertainty in Taxation and Its Impacts on Labour Supply in the Czech Republic

Igor Kotlán, Daniel Němec, Zuzana Machová

Politická ekonomie 2019, 67(4):371-384 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1246  

This article builds on long-term research by authors in the field of tax burden and its impacts, incorporating a newly designed indicator of legal uncertainty in the tax area which is conceived on the basis of a detailed description of the legislation. This indicator, together with other important factors, is incorporated into the tax system model and its links and influence on the behaviour of economic actors are examined. The aim of the article is to evaluate the impact of legal uncertainty in taxation on the labour supply in the Czech Republic. From a methodological point of view, DSGE modelling and quarterly data for the period 2002-2016 are used....

Peníze a inflace: ztracená kointegrace

Money and Inflation: Lost Cointegration

Aleš Michl

Politická ekonomie 2019, 67(4):385-405 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1255  

Using a cointegration, we show that there is no long-term relationship between money in the economy M and real (and nominal) GDP and CPI (US data from 1959 to 2018). There is no empirical evidence to support the textbook claim that "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". Only when we shorten the time series to the period before the crisis (1959-2008), there is a cointegration between CPI and M2, but only at the 10% significance level and only according to one of two co-integration tests. The relationship that existed before the crisis either had to fall apart or change. There are three possible explanations: (1) The...

Reálna konvergencia logistickej výkonnosti krajín sveta, EÚ a V4

Real Convergence of Logistics Performance of Countries of the World, EU and V4

Martin Dluhoš, Jozef Gajdoš, Zuzana Hajduová

Politická ekonomie 2019, 67(4):406-425 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1244  

Using the database of logistics performance of countries in the period 2007-2016, we study the convergence of countries in terms of logistics performance across the world, the European Union and V4. In comparison with other beta-convergence studies using the OLS estimation method, we also implement a conditional quantile regression (Koenker and Bassett, 1978). The use of the quantile regression allows us to study the convergence of countries not only from the point of view of the average, but also from the perspective of different quantiles of conditional distribution. We identify countries with different leveles of convergence and quantify different...

Aglomeračné výhody a technologická náročnosť odvetví priemyselnej výroby na slovensku

Agglomeration Economies and Technology Intensity of Industry Sector in Slovakia

Jaroslav Rusnák, Filip Lehocký

Politická ekonomie 2019, 67(4):426-443 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1241  

This paper analyses the geographical concentration of the industry sector according to technology intensity of industries. The analysis of spatial distribution employs a database including information on the number of plants at the 2-digit level of sector aggregation in the period 1997-2016. We estimate parameters for a spatial panel data analysis with random and fixed effects in order to examine two related research questions: (1) to what extent are the effects of internal economies of scale present in the technology-intensive industries; and (2) which types of external economies of scale are used by different industries depending on technology intensity....

Aktuální stav řízení rizik a regulace bankovnictví

Jaroslav Daňhel

Politická ekonomie 2019, 67(4):444-447 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1249  

Hluboká a podnětná analýza fungování evropské unie z pohledu teorie veřejné volby

Luboš Smrčka

Politická ekonomie 2019, 67(4):448-451 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1205