Q32 - Exhaustible Resources and Economic DevelopmentNávrat zpět

This study examines the significant influence of oil price fluctuations on the economies of oil--exporting countries. While elevated oil prices can result in foreign currency inflows and advantages for oil-exporting countries, they can also trigger adverse effects, including a reduction in manufacturing sectors and a loss of price competitiveness due to currency appreciation. This research focuses on the period from 2004Q1 to 2021Q4, examining the influence of oil price fluctuations on key macroeconomic indicators in Russia, including industrial production, exchange rates, inflation and interest rates. The structural VAR model findings confirm that the monetary channel demonstrates a higher degree of responsiveness to oil price shocks compared to the fiscal channel. Specifically, the study observes that industrial production exhibits a pronounced procyclical response to oil price shocks through the fiscal channel. Conversely, the monetary channel reveals that increased oil price volatility exerts pressure on the Russian rouble, resulting in a counter-cyclical behaviour in inflation and interest rates.

The conventional view of the sustainability of social development is based on the works of the Roman Club, particularly the book "The Limits to Growth" by Donella Meadows and her colleagues (1972). In their opinion, the human population and economy are depleting the wealth of the Earth and pollutants and wastes are burdening the environment. However, the concern that mineral resources will be depleted is unsubstantiated. Environmental economics argues that a higher number of people and a higher income make resources scarcer on a short-term basis. For investors and entrepreneurs, higher prices represent an opportunity and an incentive to search for solutions. Many of them will not succeed in this search and they will bear the costs on their own. However, in a free society, the solutions are eventually found. And in the long run, we are better off thanks to the new discoveries than if the original problems had never occurred.