P44 - Other Economic Systems: National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; InflationReturn

This paper aims to empirically investigate the dynamic behaviour of inflation rates in four countries in the Middle East and North Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia) based on the assumption that inflation has become more persistent in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. The study analyses whether the inflation dynamics in these countries have exhibited any differences after the Arab Spring period. To do so, we conduct an analysis based on the quantile autoregressive (QAR) unit root approach for before and after the Arab Spring. Our findings indicate that the inflation rates in the studied MENA countries exhibit high persistence in the period after the Arab Spring (2011-2023). As a result, shocks that hit inflation may not remain transitory and instead have a persistent inflationary effect. From a policy perspective, our findings suggest that monetary authorities in the selected MENA countries should not tolerate an increase in inflation, even if it is deemed transitory.