P24 - Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; InflationReturn

This paper deals with the absolute version of purchasing power parity and its applicability in transition economies. The aim of the paper is to identify and quantify deviations between nominal exchange rates and rates based on purchasing power parity. The paper specifies and analyses the theoretical causes of those deviations and focuses on the impact of prices of non-tradable goods on purchasing power parity. Parity exchange rates based on prices of tradable-only goods are then calculated for 20 transition economies. Panel regression instruments are used to analyse the influence of selected macroeconomic and institutional variables on deviations between nominal exchange rates and rates based on purchasing power parity.

Predictions of economic activity are sine qua non of economic policy. Nevertheless, predictions are characterised by the high level of inaccuracy; the main aim of the paper is to provide a potential theoretical explanation of frequent failures by focusing on the refl ection of real market proces in forecasting apparatus. It is argued that the role of intermediate products is underestimated in the considerations of future development of economic activity, even if these has presumably higher relevance to the level of economic activity in the future. Mutual relation between expenditures on consumption and production expense is discussed and verifi ed by use of econometric tools. It is found that even if there is long-term relation between consumption and production expenditures, from the short-term perspective, actual consumption does not have statistically signifi cant impact on future decisions of producers.

Economic growth of the Czech Republic measured by GDP reached 3,4 % per annum in the decade 2001-2010 and was substantially faster than average annual growth of the European Union. Strong acceleration in the years 2005-2007 was followed by stagnation in the years 2008-2012 caused by strong decline of GDP in the year 2009 and milder recession in the year 2012. The modest recovery in the years 2010 and 2011 was pulled namely by foreign trade, while final consumption and gross fixed capital formation stagnated. Alternative indicator of national income was negatively influenced by growing outflow of primary incomes. Real gross domestic income indicates different results in comparison with gross domestic product because of changes in the terms of trade. Macroeconomic stability improved substantially in the field of foreign trade while general government deficit contributed to its deterioration.

Economic growth of the Czech Republic strongly accelerated in the years 2005-2007. Substantial decline of economic activity took place at the end of 2008 and in the year 2009. On the supply side the main contributing factors were labour and total factor productivity. On the demand side the growth was pulled by domestic demand and the contribution of foreign trade became positive in the years 2004-2008. Macroeconomic stability improved substantially in the field of foreign trade. The process of real convergence accelerated in the years 2001-2007 and was based on the growth of labour productivity. In 2008 the GDP per capita in purchasing power standards reached 80 % of the EU-27 average. The comparative price level grew quickly from the low starting level, but was far below the relative economic level compared with EU-15. In 2008 a great jump in CPL took place (from 59 % in 2007 to 67 % in 2008 in relation to EU-15).

Economic growth of the Czech Republic differed strongly in two periods: 2001-2003 and 2004-2006. While in the first period the average annual rate of growth of GDP reached only 2,7 %, in the second period the growth accelerated to 5,7 %. The economic growth measured by the indicators of real income (namely of real gross domestic income) was faster. This was caused by positive contribution of the terms of trade. On the supply side the main contributing factors were labour and total factor productivity. On the demand side the growth was pulled by domestic demand which grew in the period 2001-2003 even faster than GDP. The contribution of foreign trade becomes positive in the years 2004-2006 with very strong contribution in the year 2005. Macroeconomic stability of the Czech economy improved substantially in the field of foreign trade. The trade balance becomes positive from the year 2004 and growing imbalance persists in the balance of income. The negative gap between savings and investments is caused mainly by households and general government. The process of real convergence accelerated in the years 2000-2006 and was based on the growth of labour and total factor productivity. In 2006 the GDP per capita in purchasing power standards reached almost 80 % of the average level in EU-27. The comparative price level of the Czech Republic in this year reached only 61 % despite accelerated process of catching-up.

The study is focused on macroeconomic stability of the Czech economy. The first part (methodological) stems from the system of national accounting which offers two approaches: from the point of view of relationship between domestic supply and demand and between savings and investments. Analytical part examines domestic supply and demand, which is reflected in the balance of foreign trade. There was a positive tendency due to a favourable development in foreign trade. The relation between savings and investments, which is equal to current account balance, looks less favourable. The main source of imbalance is a negative balance of incomes expressing bigger outflow of primary incomes in relation to their inflow. Public finances can be identified as the weakest chain link of economic development. International comparison with new EU Members from middle Europe indicates that keeping macroeconomic stability in acceptable boundaries represents a serious problem.

This paper aims at constructing a model of a small open economy of the Slovak Republic. In essence, the model represents a synthesis of already published modifications of the Mundell - Fleming type of models, describing the market of goods and services in interaction with the money market and paying special attention to foreign trade. As the model construction is aimed at providing a tool for qualitative analyses, the model equations are specified in linear functional form - in order to obtain analytic solutions. Theoretical analyses are confronted with the empirical verification of the constructed model. Not surprisingly, historical experience represented by data on Slovak economy in transition reveals that complex structure of the model degenerates to a much simpler form in early years of transition. It is understood and verified that several economic principles guiding market economies do not apply in transition (e.g. investments evolve independently of interest rates).

Economic growth of the Czech Republic differed strongly in two periods: 1996-1999 and 2000-2004. While in the first period the economy was hit by the recession and the average annual rate of growth of GDP reached only 0,9 %, in the second period the growth accelerated to 3,2 %. The economic growth measured by the indicators of real income (namely of real gross domestic income) was faster. This was caused by positive contribution of the terms of trade. On the supply side the main contributing factors were labour and total factor productivity. On the demand side the growth was pulled by domestic demand which grew even faster than GDP. The contribution of foreign trade becomes positive in the year 2004 and mainly in 2005. Macroeconomic stability of the Czech economy improved substantially in the fields of inflation, monetary development and foreign trade. Imbalances persist in general government budget and on the current account of the balance of payment. The process of real convergence accelerated in the years 2000-2004 and was based on the growth of labour and total factor productivity. In 2004 the GDP per capita in purchasing power standards surpassed 70 % of the average level in EU-25. The comparative price level of the Czech Republic in this year reached only 53 % despite accelerated process of catching-up.

The economies of Central and Eastern Europe are acceding to the EU with economic levels well behind those of current Member States. Combining countries with different economic standards does give rise to certain risks. Where the convergence of the price level is too fast and is not underpinned by labour productivity growth above the level of growth in EU and by the related balancing of wage income, it could pose a threat to the standard of living due to the decline in real wages. If wage pressures are too strong, and force a rise in wages that is incommensurate to labour productivity, the competitiveness of the business sphere would decline, economic growth would slow down, and unemployment would ultimately rise. A key requirement for the smooth progression of integration is a robust economic growth on the basis of labour productivity and its harmonization with wage level and price level developments.