N50 - Economic History: Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment, and Extractive Industries: General, International, or ComparativeReturn

The conventional view of the sustainability of social development is based on the works of the Roman Club, particularly the book "The Limits to Growth" by Donella Meadows and her colleagues (1972). In their opinion, the human population and economy are depleting the wealth of the Earth and pollutants and wastes are burdening the environment. However, the concern that mineral resources will be depleted is unsubstantiated. Environmental economics argues that a higher number of people and a higher income make resources scarcer on a short-term basis. For investors and entrepreneurs, higher prices represent an opportunity and an incentive to search for solutions. Many of them will not succeed in this search and they will bear the costs on their own. However, in a free society, the solutions are eventually found. And in the long run, we are better off thanks to the new discoveries than if the original problems had never occurred.

The article discusses the relationship between monetary policy and price of oil, in broader sense price of commodities. Firstly it focuses on describing the relationship of key macroeconomic variables, gas prices and other commodities against oil prices. Subsequently, it discusses the existence of a "transmission channels" through which monetary policy can be propagated into oil prices (or prices of commodities). Secondly it provides further insight into the forecasting process of the CNB, in both a retrospective look back at the prospects of oil prices in the past and the analysis of transitory and permanent shock (the rise in oil prices of 30 USD/b). Simulated oil price shock is calculated from the average level of Brent oil prices in the first quarter of 2010, i.e. 77.50 USD/b.