G33 - Bankruptcy; LiquidationReturn

The paper investigates the relationship between the financial distress of European private companies identified by the Altman Z-score and real bankruptcy. We extend the traditional Z-score with the asymmetric effect of economic activity. Our results show higher forecasting performance of the Altman Z-score of large companies in a three-year projection. We argue that our results differ from Altman (1968) because of specific market conditions in Europe that enable prolongation of activity after financial distress is identified. We also emphasize the role of liquidity, size, performance and indebtedness in increasing financial distress forecasting performance. Finally, we extend our prediction model with selected indicators of quality and development of the institutional environment.

This article presents the outcome of research focused on financial characteristics of companies declaring a moratorium. The key purpose of the moratorium is to avoid threatening bankruptcy. The aim of the research is to identify the financial situation of the companies entering the moratorium process. The main objective was to find the answer to the core question whether there is any chance of avoiding bankruptcy using the moratorium, that is, whether the moratorium fulfils its basic function. The research is based on a quantitative analysis of selected financial ratios and synthetic indicators and their mutual relations. The analysis looks for an answer to what financial indicator levels were characteristic for the companies launching the moratorium mode of operation and what these levels indicated. The research results prove that the financial situation of the companies entering the moratorium process was unsatisfactory. It is even possible to conclude that the companies were in the last stage of their corporate crisis. This situation shows that the probability of avoiding bankruptcy was extremely low.

Bankruptcy prediction has long been regarded as a critical topic within the academic and banking community. To the best of our knowledge, no previous study in the Slovak Republic has attempted to develop a bankruptcy prediction model putting together statistical and artificial intelligence approaches performed on a such an amount of data. This paper seeks to fill this gap. Our aim is to develop a hybrid bankruptcy prediction model using a genetic algorithm in the process of training a neural network (GA-NN). The research data set comprises a balanced sample of both healthy and bankrupt firms operating in Slovakia in the period from 2014 to 2017. Financial information regarding a firm's financial situation are acquired from the Finstat database, which stores annual reports. For the purpose of comparing the classification accuracy of the proposed GA-NN model, two more models are constructed, namely BP-NN (back-propagation neural network model) as well as MDA (multiple discrimination model). The results gained by utilizing these models suggest the superiority of the developed GA-NN model to both BP-NN and MDA models in terms of prediction performance.

The study brings a new approach to the problem of the currently low use of financial rehabilitation methods in Czech economic reality. We examine several aspects of this problem, but consider the main problem to be the fact that entrepreneurial subjects enter into insolvency proceedings with a very small amount of assets compared to their liabilities. In such a situation, however, willingness on the part of creditors to enable reorganisation cannot be assumed - especially given that attempts to revive such a business are in the majority of cases clearly mistaken. Insufficient debtor property is also reflected in the fact that creditors receive satisfaction only to an insufficient degree; in comparison to OECD countries, the Czech Republic most of the time significantly behind the OECD country average when comparing insolvency proceedings. One of the possible ways of improving the prognosis for using the financial rehabilitation principle and the prognosis for investors to achieve adequate fulfilment during insolvency proceedings would be to tighten present regulations regarding the possibilities of indebting a business. This is presently done by the definition of over-indebtedness, according to which the liabilities of an entrepreneurial subject may not exceed the value of his property.