F44 - International Business CyclesNávrat zpět

The aim of the paper is to present traditional and alternative look at the evolution of business cycle synchronisation in the European Union throughout four periods determined according to integration process. Gradually we apply cross-correlations and rather alternative minimum spanning tree method to evaluate synchronization process and core or peripheral countries. An endogeneity argument and decreasing asymmetries among integrated countries were confirmed with a light rupture during financial and economic crisis. Position of France and Germany as core countries was corroborated. However, single monetary policy should be implemented according to average macroeconomic evolution in the euro area and not according to particular situation in France and/or Germany which could be inappropriate for certain countries.

The objective of the article is to identify impact of economic policy implications on current financial and economic crisis. The analysis examines a hypothesis that the main causes of financial and economic crisis include unbalanced developments of the macroeconomic sphere as well as existing weaknesses of banking systems, which often do not evolve in line with the development of economy fundamentals. The article is going to inspect three areas: (i) What development trends and economic policy were registered in the pre-crisis period in order to identify the main causes of economic fluctuations of economy; (ii) How economic policies responded to the course of the financial and economic crisis; (iii) What was the effect financial crisis had on the real economy development? The main task for after-crisis periods is to improve setting of monetary and fiscal policy, bank risk management system and also system for monitoring and analysing the business cycle.