F43 - Economic Growth of Open EconomiesNávrat zpět

This study investigates the impact of public debt on economic growth in a panel of 27 EU economies over the period 2000-2022. As the preliminary analysis suggests a nonlinear relationship between these variables, the debt threshold analysis based on the dynamic panel threshold regression is employed. The results for the whole panel indicate that public debt supports growth below a threshold of 68.7%, but it has a detrimental impact on growth if it is above the threshold. The validity of the findings is confirmed by including the effects of crises, which also indicates that economic growth in countries with debt below the threshold was more resilient to crisis events. The robustness of the estimates is checked using the method of moments quantile regression. However, the analysis of subsamples based on a country's EMU membership and the indebtedness level reveals the variety of debt thresholds, which calls for different fiscal governance across countries to reduce the negative effects of debt on economic growth. Overall, the results emphasize the importance of adequate fiscal space to respond to economic disturbances.

In today's rapidly evolving world, the transition towards green energy remains momentous in attaining ecological sustainability. In this respect, the present study intends to elucidate factors influencing the green energy transition in OECD economies from 2004 to 2020. We use several diagnostic measures to validate the heterogeneity of slopes and cross-sectional dependence in the panel. Nevertheless, cointegration exists between the study variables, such as green energy, political risk, economic risk, financial risk, human capital, eco-innovation and energy efficiency. Using fixed effect and random effect approaches, we conclude that political risk, human capital and energy efficiency are significant and leading drivers of green energy transition in the region. However, economic expansion, financial risk and economic risk are significant barriers to transitioning towards green energy in the selected economies. The outcomes are robust, as authenticated by linear regression with a heteroskedastic panel-corrected standard error approach. We recommend the minimization of political, financial and economic risk, while improvements in environment-related R&D investment could further boost the transition process towards green energy.

Economic convergence has become a European research topic of interest during recent decades, particularly since new member countries joined the EU in 2004. Measuring cross-country convergence focuses on real convergence, taking per capita income as a measure of living standards based on the convergence criteria defined by Sala-i-Martin (1996). The objective of this paper is to bring together supply-side (real convergence) and demand-side (BoP-constrained approach) concepts of economic growth aimed at identification of convergence sources in the emerging economies of the Visegrad Group. The sustainability of convergence in this study utilizes the BoP-constrained growth theory developed by A. Thirlwall (1979). Our results show that all the countries in the Visegrad Group exhibit relatively instant convergence, which could continue considering the intensity and direction of structural changes that affect the export demand elasticities and labour productivity.

The aim of the paper is to verify the sensitivity of national labour markets to economic growth while respecting its sources and different growth trends. We monitored the change in employment caused by economic growth in the set of EU27 member states in the period 2000-2019. The sensitivity of the labour market was quantified by finding the values of the elasticity coefficient. To obtain it, we used a relation to calculate the point elasticity as well as a logarithmic linear regression model compiled for each member state. The differences in the response of the labour market were identified by comparing the values of the indicator. To determine the factors of employment changes, partial analyses were performed by dividing the evaluated period into sections, especially into periods of growth and decline. As a result, it was possible to identify the impact of economic development trends on the elasticity of the labour market. At the same time, subsets (groups of countries) were created based on similarity of labour productivity levels and employment rates. The results of the analyses indicated that the labour market in all cases responded to changes in economic performance in a short period of time, while the strength of the influence is also affected by the stability of economic development.

Africa has received considerable amounts of external aid over the last two decades without significant improvements in socio-economic conditions on the continent. This study, therefore, examines the effects of foreign aid on growth in Africa, and how institutional quality can moderate these effects. The study used the system generalized method of moments estimation technique and a panel of forty-two African countries over the period 2010-2018. Interestingly, the study established that even though foreign aid impacts negatively on growth in Africa, improving the quality of institutions on the continent can reverse this negative effect. In fact, the study computed a threshold value of institutional quality beyond which foreign aid would be a blessing to Africa. This implies that for foreign aid to contribute meaningfully to growth in Africa, the quality of institutions should improve beyond this threshold. Unfortunately, the average level of institutional quality in Africa is presently below this threshold. The study concluded that policymakers in Africa should take urgent steps to strengthen the quality of institutions on the continent as a means of exploiting the continent's huge foreign aid to drive growth and reduce the excruciating effects of poverty plaguing more than half of its population.

The aim of the paper is to present traditional and alternative look at the evolution of business cycle synchronisation in the European Union throughout four periods determined according to integration process. Gradually we apply cross-correlations and rather alternative minimum spanning tree method to evaluate synchronization process and core or peripheral countries. An endogeneity argument and decreasing asymmetries among integrated countries were confirmed with a light rupture during financial and economic crisis. Position of France and Germany as core countries was corroborated. However, single monetary policy should be implemented according to average macroeconomic evolution in the euro area and not according to particular situation in France and/or Germany which could be inappropriate for certain countries.

Advanced countries are losing their predominant position in the world economy. With the long-time productivity slowdown and the present long recession, a question arises about the threat of secular stagnation of the advanced world. In searching for the roots of this threat, leading world economistst accentuate either the demand side, or the supply side of the economy. In this respect, the authors add globalization as another important factor. Globalization has resulted in long-term global and internal imbalances, and caused deep problems in the advanced countries - deindustrialization, unemployment, growing dependence on the social safety net, and a permanent increase of government intrusion into the economy. After the 2008 crisis, fiscal and monetary policy concentrates on short-term support of economic recovery, leaving aside the deeper long-term deficiencies. With multiple negative trends acting in the same direction, the threat of secular stagnation should not be overlooked.

The article examines the relationships between selected gender and economic indicators of chosen countries (OECD countries, EU countries, associate members of OECD and high-income countries) and evaluates situation of the Czech Republic in international comparison. Gender indicator values for the Czech Republic were compared both within the time period (years 2006-2014) and with summary statistics for the EU countries. Further, based on four subindexes of the global gender gap index (GGI), similarity of the Czech Republic and other countries in time comparison were expressed. Multidimensional scaling and cluster analysis were applied for graphical expression of relationships of the high-income and EU countries. Positive correlation of indicators reflecting women participation in political and economic life was identifi ed in the OECD countries. Moreover, gender equality and the competitiveness, sustainability of economies and GDP per capita positively correlate in the group of these countries. Gender equality in the Czech Republic is very weak in an international comparison and demonstrates a deteriorating trend.

Economic globalisation can be defined as growing interdependence of financial and goods and services markets in the international scale. The important part of globalisation form supranational corporations, which are reaction on the rising competitiveness and need for strategic alliances. The more open is the economy, the more important are the effects of globalisation on the goods and capital flows. This is the case of the Czech Republic, which is vitally dependent on the successful export performance. The export performance is relatively specialized concerning its product and territorial structure. In the period after EU accession the intensity of international cooperation grew rapidly in all the Central European countries, which is mostly the result of the huge FDI inflow at the beginning of the decade. Generally the process of globalisation has its positive and negative effects. For the Czech Republic the positive aspects of globalisation prevail due to its geographical location, qualified and cheap labour force and EU membership.

In this paper we discuss the issue of the choice of exchange rate regimes in transitive economies and the effect of exchange rate policy on the development of macroeconomic indicators (e. g. the average growth rate of real GDP in domestic currency and the development of domestic inflation). It is obvious that exchange rate policy is not a passive factor, at least in the medium term. Our analysis indicates that the fixed foreign exchange rate arrangements policy does not necessarily mean stability of the foreign exchange rates. Neither percentage exchange rate changes of fixed rates, nor their volatility measured by the standard deviation are lower than the average change is over the examined period. Our analysis indicates also that the inflation rate is growing in accordance with the growth of depreciation of the foreign exchange rate and the growth of its volatility measured by the standard deviation. It was cleared that the higher volatility of the effective nominal exchange rate is reflected by the lower average economic growth rate of transitive countries.

The exchange rate cannot significantly diverge from a (real) long-term equilibrium level consistent with the macroeconomic picture of an economy for a long period of time; otherwise, the economy suffers from macroeconomic imbalances such as below-potential growth and below natural employment, or on the other hand faces overheating of the economy with rising inflation. The paper focuses on different methods of how to measure the long-term equilibrium exchange rate. After a brief discussion of different approaches, the NATREX one was theoretically developed for the case of an open economy and empirically validated for the Czech economy. The NATREX concept represents a macroeconomic model based on stock-flow interaction. After the estimation of the NATREX model for the CZK, we have been able to answer such questions as: What are the pace and main determinants of the current long-term equilibrium appreciation? What is the current value of the equilibrium exchange rate and the misalignment of the current exchange rate? And, how fast is the exchange rate likely to revert to its equilibrium value?

The economic development of the Czech Republic and Slovakia after the split of former Czechoslovakia in 1993 shows some important differences, caused by different economic policy and the starting level. The convergence of the Slovak economic level to the Czech one was very fast after the World War II, due to the massive reallocation of resources (the transfer of resources in favour of Slovakia represented 11 % of the Slovak GDP). The Slovak economy adjusted to the lower economic level after the split by sinking real wages and by depreciation of the Slovak koruna, so that the ULC are now the lowest among the Central European countries. Slovakia enjoyed very fast growth of GDP in recent years fluctuating from 7 to 10 %, while in the Czech Republic it reached from 6 to 7 %. The abundant inflow of FDI and economic reforms helped to speed the real convergence in Slovakia, which continued fluently after a deep fall accompanying the split of Czechoslovakia. In 2007, the Slovak GDP per capita measured in PPS reached 84 % of the Czech one. The common challenge for both economies is to overcome the one-sided orientation on cost/price competitiveness based on low wages and pass over to the qualitative competitive advantage, based on the innovations and production of high quality goods and services.

This paper deals with the narrowing the income gap between the Central and East European New Member States (NMS-5) and the EU-25 and with the trade-off between the real and nominal convergence. The methodology is based on international standards enabling comparisons of macroeconomic indicators, especially of GDP per capita in purchasing power parity and alternative indicators of real gross domestic income, which comprises gains or losses from the terms of trade changes. In the chapter 1 the changes in catching-up and in the position of the NMS-5 economy within the framework of EU-25 are analysed. Chapter 2 deals with the trade-off between the real and nominal convergence. The regression analysis of the comparative price and wage level in relation to the economic level reveals deviations from the theoretical values, especially in the Czech Republic. The unit labour cost's level comparisons examine the cost/price competitiveness. The perspective of real convergence is analysed in the conclusion.

This study provides information on trends and role of the Czech outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and evaluates the effects of the OFDI on parent companies. The analysis of trends is based on Czech National Bank data; the effects are evaluated through a unique set of data gathered through a sample survey. The stock of OFDI has grown slowly but steadily between 1993 and 2002. To date, about 80 per cent of OFDI is located in services and about 40 per cent in Central and East European countries (CEECs). The nature of OFDI in the EU is trade facilitating while the nature of OFDI in CEECs is tilted toward manufacturing. Much OFDI aims at avoiding a specific regulation in the home country or takes advantage of financial incentives in host countries. Our results indicate that OFDI is often related to parent company restructuring and is a precondition for maintenance and improvement of competitiveness.

The paper provides a comprehensive survey of the theories of consumption functions. The Keynesian consumption function is examined in more detail under a condition of a small open economy. The paper explains the variety of consumption expenditures in the Czech Republic between 1993 - 2001. In this paper an enlarged version of the Czech consumption function, also tests Ricardian equivalence. Empirical results imply that consumer behaviour reacts rationally to an external imbalance and the economy heads to equilibrium by itself. However, the consumption reaction seems to be irrational under an internal balance. Consumers do not voluntarily reduce their consumption when deficit of public finance appears but they are forced to do so when interest rates increase as a result of the internal imbalance.