F32 - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital MovementsNávrat zpět

Analysis of Relations in Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Example of CZK/EUR Exchange Rate The aim of the paper is to make an empirical verification of both concepts of the validity of uncovered interest rate parity, ex post and ex ante, using the predicted CZK/EUR exchange rate (for one month and one year) as a proxy variable for market expectations. We formulate the difference between the econometric procedures applied in the case of stationary and non-stationary time series. We perform a cointegration analysis and empirical verification of the error correction model, where PRIBOR interest rates and the actual and expected development of the CZK/EUR spot rate act as endogenous variables. The foreign EURIBOR interest rate (one-month and one-year) is considered an exogenous variable in our analysis, as we do not assume the influence of the Czech economy on this interest rate. We have found that long-term cointegration relations within the uncovered interest rate parity are determined by the inflation-targeting policy pursued by the CNB since 1998. In short-term relations, the foreign EURIBOR interest rate determines the development of the domestic PRIBOR interest rate. The development of the CZK/EUR spot exchange rate is sensitive to changes in the VIX global financial risk indicator. Growth of the VIX indicator leads to a weakening of the Czech koruna on the one-month time horizon and to its retrospective strengthening over the one-year time horizon. Changes in the expected CZK/EUR spot exchange rate respond in a corrective way to previous changes in expectations, in the case of both month- ly and annual forecast horizons. The depreciation (appreciation) of the CZK/EUR spot ex-change rate is associated with the subsequent expected depreciation (appreciation) of the ko- runa exchange rate. This fact signals the adaptability of exchange rate expectations over the monthly and annual forecast horizons.

This paper builds a simple framework for analysing over- or undersaving of economies in the context of external economic imbalances. Macroeconomic determinants of optimal household and corporate saving, based on microeconomic theory, are used as explanatory variables in a benchmark panel regression model. Among other things, the model shows chronic oversaving of China and other Asian economies (Korea, Japan), and undersaving of the USA and the United Kingdom. Czechia and the other V4 countries showed no significant deviation from the model, nor did Germany or France.

The article deals with constraint of credit supply consistent with external solvency of economy and solvency of banking sector under negative international investment position, foreign ownership of banking sector and growing bank´s capital and stable funding requirements. The target is to define main parameters of sustainable supply of funding of external capital providers and to test the relationships among determinants of external solvency, foreign sources of funding the economy and banking sector and credit aggregates in the Czech Republic using unrestricted ARDL ECM model. The results show growing inflow of debt funding motivated by export led growth, the Czech FDI investments and lack of euro liquidity due to CNB foreign exchange interventions. The debt provided by foreign parent companies could overcome a constraint of home banking sector´s credit supply. Growing export causes investments to production capacity financed by equity of foreign holders. The cost of negative NFA is driven by profitability of exporters which is positively correlated with GDP growth. The bank´s capital incl. reinvested profits do not reflect a credit cycle due to excess of capital in the Czech banking sector.

The article in the context of the current Greek crisis analyses the consequences of forced unification, occurring in the European Union, at least since the Maastricht Treaty, which is now associated mainly with the process of monetary union. The current stage of European integration is based on political constructivism and it is characterized by the dominance of politics over economy, which in some aspects of the system resembles the communist economy system, which was an extreme distortion of the relationship between politics and economy. The unification model of European integration does not help the weaker European Union countries, for it forces them to use various forms of standardization that brings high (often hidden) costs (exceeding profits). The article notes that the main prize in the economy is the exchange rate. The reason for the imbalances within the monetary union is a non-optimal exchange rate for each member country - too overvalued rate of Greece, but also too undervalued rate of Germany. The text also discusses limitations (systemic and political) and inability to perform adequate internal devaluation and systematic (not just partial, parametric) reforms in Greece. The congenital structural differences among the EU countries and the impossibility of the exchange rate adaptation lead to a systemic Eurozone defect, which results in a fact, that it is not (and, in the present composition, it even cannot be) an optimal currency area.

The paper deals with accumulation of foreign exchange reserves of central banks and its consequences in banking system liquidity management. In theoretical part the case of banking system liquidity surplus is analyzed focusing on creation of liquidity through FX operations, sterilization of liquidity and main sources of liquidity absorption. In this context it is analyzed how monetary policy instruments (on outright or repo basis) enable central bank to react on volatility of banking system liquidity needs and to cover issued currency in circulation and bank's reserves by net foreign assets. In empirical part these problems are analyzed and compared using the example of the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. The paper focuses on main differences in the level of liquidity surplus, cost of sterilization, volatility of spread between O/N reference interest rate and main policy rate, main sources of liquidity absorption and dynamics of currency in circulation and reserves covering by net foreign assets.

Paper inquires into historical development of key theoretical concepts related to purchasing power parity in 20th century. It presents theories which explain relation between price level, labor productivity and exchange rate. These theories explain the process of how the long-run equilibrium exchange rate is being achieved. On the other hand it elaborates on short-run exchange rate deviations. As the key factor which cause the deviations identified in the paper is presence of the prices of non-tradable goods in price indexes. Proposed is a case study which clarifies the process of equilibrium exchange rate achieving to emphasis some of the theoretical conclusions made in paper. Verification of theoretical conclusions is sketched out through the Big Mac Index statistics. Statistics is to prove proposed relations between price levels and exchange rates in different countries and is to verify the relevance of theoretical conclusions about long-run equilibrium of exchange rates.

The exchange rate cannot significantly diverge from a (real) long-term equilibrium level consistent with the macroeconomic picture of an economy for a long period of time; otherwise, the economy suffers from macroeconomic imbalances such as below-potential growth and below natural employment, or on the other hand faces overheating of the economy with rising inflation. The paper focuses on different methods of how to measure the long-term equilibrium exchange rate. After a brief discussion of different approaches, the NATREX one was theoretically developed for the case of an open economy and empirically validated for the Czech economy. The NATREX concept represents a macroeconomic model based on stock-flow interaction. After the estimation of the NATREX model for the CZK, we have been able to answer such questions as: What are the pace and main determinants of the current long-term equilibrium appreciation? What is the current value of the equilibrium exchange rate and the misalignment of the current exchange rate? And, how fast is the exchange rate likely to revert to its equilibrium value?

In the course of exchange rate development history of the countries taking part and evaluated in ERM or ERM II before they entered the euro-area there was no depreciating evolution with a trend to currency crisis at all. Fundamental indicators of these economies, partly owing to the compliance with other Maastricht criteria, do not induce devaluation expectancions of investors. However, there is a danger in two other lines. Firstly there is the possibility of so called pure contagion, secondly there are specifics connected directly with taking part in ERM II (wrong configuration of the central parity, appreciating exchange rate overshooting or advancing the date of the euro conversion). The second generation models of currency crisis admits the risk of crisis even without an outstanding decline of fundamental indicators. Taking part of exchange rate in ERM II is a suitable application of the model. Under specific conditions, when taking part in ERM II should trend to the compliance with the exchange rate convergency criterion at the same time, there is a small expectancy of a speculative attack success.

The paper analyses the intertemporal approach to the balance of payments which is based on the intertemporal approach to the relation between domestic saving and investment. A key element of the presented analysis is whether world capital mobility is high enough to hold a condition that the relation between the domestic saving and investment in a country could vary. The paper contributes to this economic theory by the empirical analysis carried out with a large sample of countries as well as by the analysis of saving and investment distinguishing the set of developed, poor, and transition countries. The paper defines and empirical verifies macroeconomic relationships among saving, investment, the balance of trade and services, and the current account of the balance of payments. The authors define their own hypothesis of the relation among domestic saving, investment, and world capital mobility, which is based on the level of economic development of a country. The results of the analysis are discussed within the context of how to conduct monetary and fiscal policies, as well as within the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate theory.

The aim of this paper is to discuss the impact of current account adjustment on the tradable and nontradable sector in member countries of currency union - Euro zone. The current account adjustment associated with the adjustment of the net export's deficit caused by the drop in the domestic absorption evokes the increase in the relative price of the nontradable sector. The paper discusses this hypothesis within framework of the Portuguese current account adjustment, which is the result of European financial integration in catching-up countries. The common monetary policy and common currency cannot offset the negative impact of nontradable price increase within the internal expenditure switching effect and also can not support exporters within the external expenditure effect.. The Portuguese current account adjustment was not followed by the currency depreciation and the tradable price increase. The cost of the currency asymmetric response were born by the tradable mark-up decrease, the falling decrease in nontradable wages and employment and finally by the nontradable mark-up and employment decrease.

The paper provides a comprehensive survey of the theories of consumption functions. The Keynesian consumption function is examined in more detail under a condition of a small open economy. The paper explains the variety of consumption expenditures in the Czech Republic between 1993 - 2001. In this paper an enlarged version of the Czech consumption function, also tests Ricardian equivalence. Empirical results imply that consumer behaviour reacts rationally to an external imbalance and the economy heads to equilibrium by itself. However, the consumption reaction seems to be irrational under an internal balance. Consumers do not voluntarily reduce their consumption when deficit of public finance appears but they are forced to do so when interest rates increase as a result of the internal imbalance.

The article arrives to the following conclusions. First, the optimal currency area theory cannot deliver critical (objective) values of tests, whose passing would guarantee that costs of adoption of euro would be lower than the benefits. Second, several empirical observations strongly support the hypothesis that early adoption of euro by the Czech Republic would not incur any substantial losses. Third, several recent studies focused on testing the synchronisation of Czech business cycle vis-à-vis Eurozone do apply analytical techniques inappropriately, which implies biased results. Fourth, the Czech economy has enough experience with excessively volatile exchange rate. The greatest advantage of adoption of euro will consist in a replacement of exchange rate fluctuations and substantially higher stability of inflation. In quantitative terms, the weight of accession countries in Eurozone will be too small to influence the overall inflation and thus co-determine the European Central Bank monetary policy.