F16 - Trade and Labor Market InteractionsNávrat zpět

The present study aims to indicate whether structural transformation has provided enhancement for the disadvantaged parts of society in terms of gender or whether it has been implemented at the expense of social inequalities in 10 BEM (Big Emerging Market) economies (Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, South Korea and Türkiye) in the period 1998–2019. The study also aims to understand the dynamics behind the connection between structural transformation and unemployment by comparing the results from each country. This paper also focuses on the effects of economic complexity on the breakdown of unemployment rates including female, male, youth female and youth male unemployment divisions. In the study, firstly, cross-sectional dependence is tested for all variables; secondly, the CADF test as a second-generation unit root test is applied; thirdly, the parameter constancy test is applied to each model, and then the models are estimated using the panel regression method with random coefficients. The study reveals a geographical distinction between the ten economies. Economic complexity significantly affects all types of unemployment in Poland, but it does not affect unemployment in Asian and African countries. The other result of the study is that even in Poland, the decreasing effect of ECI (Economic Complexity Index) on unemployment is different for women and men.

This study aims to investigate the relationship between service exports and productivity in 27 OECD countries by using a panel dataset for the years 1995-2018. In the theoretical context, this relationship is basically handled by the learning-by-exporting and self-selection mechanisms. Additionally, product life cycle and technological gap theories also have implications related to the export and productivity association. In the study, after detecting the cross-sectional dependence, the stationarity characteristics of the exports and productivity series were investigated by Pesaran's (2007) panel unit root tests. The findings of Westerlund (2007) panel co-integration test indicated that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between service exports and productivity. Common correlated effects estimators also supported this finding and showed that productivity affects exports positively in both short and long run. Finally, Dumitrescu and Hurlin's (2012) heterogeneous panel causality tests showed that there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from productivity to service exports. The findings support the predictions of product life cycle theory and technological gap theory regarding the exports and productivity linkage and indicate the validity of the self-selection mechanism for OECD countries' service exports.

The aim of this paper is to specify the determinants from the real economy causing long-term disequilibrium in the trade balance. The analysis is carried out for all countries of the world for the period 1980-2016 (according to data availability) using panel and cross-sectional regression. We employ the absorption approach as the basic theoretical model. From the supply side of the economy, the main determinants are: export of primary resources, e.g. oil and gas, geographical factors and institutional quality of the economy. From the demand side of the economy, the trade balance is influenced mainly by the demographic structure of the population and its consumption, saving and investment habits in the context of life cycle hypothesis, marginal propensity to consume and the participation of the government sector in the economy (e.g. health care provision, social security, etc.).

The sovereign debt crisis inside the European Monetary Union (EMU) as well as competitiveness problems of some EMU members made the members and non-members of the club address one question: Is a monetary union advantageous? This paper deals with the issue whether or not the Maastricht criteria are good indicators for deciding to join the eurozone, namely for a small open economy, as the Czech Republic. In particular, this analysis addresses the issue of price competition, which can be measured by the real effective exchange rate. In fact, the Maastricht criteria do not reflect the competitiveness of a country. Thus the arguments concerning the advantages/disadvantages of the adoption of a common currency should not be based only on the Maastricht criteria, but at first on the philosophy of the real effective exchange rate. We define a basis for setting new criteria to decideing on joining the monetary union. To sum up, if depreciation/devaluation of the real exchange rate is not a competitive advantage for both Czech exports and the Czech economy (especially in the long term), then the main economic argument against joining the EMU disappears.

We analyze the effect of the large set of theoretically motivated determinants on international trade among European countries during the period 1992-2008. The determinats cover areas of culture, institutions, infrastructure, and geography, including trade directions. We analyze trade in three types of goods: raw materials, parts and components, and capital goods. For each type of goods we differentiate trade in flows, extensive margin, and intensive margin. Methodologically we first derive fixed effects related to unique pairs of countries in terms of exports andimports. Then we explain the fixed effects with the set of trade determinants. We show number of detailed results that could be summarized in a following way. Geographical, cultural, and institutional determinants exhibit intuitively correct but varying effects. Soft and hard infrastructures exhibit strong and positive effect. Trade directions between new and old EU members plays a key role in the European trade.

Based on the gravity model of the trade with imperfect specialization we suggest a testable econometric specification. The model considers bilateral gravity equation as a statistical relationship limited by the multilateral specialization patterns among countries. We test the model on disaggregated bilateral trade data of the European Union (EU) countries. Our results show that trade in final goods between East and West in Europe is driven by multilateral specialization incentives. The identified key drivers are supply side country differences in labour costs with respect to the rest of the world. This finding is compatible with the idea of incomplete specialization. We also show that trade between old and new EU members is realized more though increasing variety of products rather than by intensifying trade with established products.

Paper inquires into historical development of key theoretical concepts related to purchasing power parity in 20th century. It presents theories which explain relation between price level, labor productivity and exchange rate. These theories explain the process of how the long-run equilibrium exchange rate is being achieved. On the other hand it elaborates on short-run exchange rate deviations. As the key factor which cause the deviations identified in the paper is presence of the prices of non-tradable goods in price indexes. Proposed is a case study which clarifies the process of equilibrium exchange rate achieving to emphasis some of the theoretical conclusions made in paper. Verification of theoretical conclusions is sketched out through the Big Mac Index statistics. Statistics is to prove proposed relations between price levels and exchange rates in different countries and is to verify the relevance of theoretical conclusions about long-run equilibrium of exchange rates.