F14 - Empirical Studies of TradeNávrat zpět

Production in Turkey has a high dependence on imported inputs. Therefore, the policy aiming at increasing exports through the depreciated national currency leads to different results depending on the degree of dependence on imported inputs. In this context, this study econometrically analyses increases in exports of manufacturing and service industries which have different levels of imported input dependence. The analysis findings indicate that national currency depreciation leads to competitive effects in the manufacturing industry, but not in the service sector. The effect of labour costs, on the other hand, is much lower in the manufacturing industry than in services. In addition, we found that the unit value index of crude material imports has a significant negative impact on the sectoral competitiveness of the manufacturing industry. In contrast, changes in import prices seem to have no significant impact on service exports.

This study aims to investigate the relationship between service exports and productivity in 27 OECD countries by using a panel dataset for the years 1995-2018. In the theoretical context, this relationship is basically handled by the learning-by-exporting and self-selection mechanisms. Additionally, product life cycle and technological gap theories also have implications related to the export and productivity association. In the study, after detecting the cross-sectional dependence, the stationarity characteristics of the exports and productivity series were investigated by Pesaran's (2007) panel unit root tests. The findings of Westerlund (2007) panel co-integration test indicated that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between service exports and productivity. Common correlated effects estimators also supported this finding and showed that productivity affects exports positively in both short and long run. Finally, Dumitrescu and Hurlin's (2012) heterogeneous panel causality tests showed that there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from productivity to service exports. The findings support the predictions of product life cycle theory and technological gap theory regarding the exports and productivity linkage and indicate the validity of the self-selection mechanism for OECD countries' service exports.

This paper addresses Czech international exports from 2000 to 2017. The goal of the paper is to determine whether the economic sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation by most of the Western countries, and especially the countermeasures adopted by the Kremlin, have exercised any significant effect on the Czech exports to Russia. The approach adopted is a gravity model and the results lead to the conclusion that the economic sanctions do not have any significant effect on the global Czech exports to Russia. Nevertheless, the sanctions affect the type of future economic cooperation between the Czech Republic and the Russian Federation.

The aim of this paper is to specify the determinants from the real economy causing long-term disequilibrium in the trade balance. The analysis is carried out for all countries of the world for the period 1980-2016 (according to data availability) using panel and cross-sectional regression. We employ the absorption approach as the basic theoretical model. From the supply side of the economy, the main determinants are: export of primary resources, e.g. oil and gas, geographical factors and institutional quality of the economy. From the demand side of the economy, the trade balance is influenced mainly by the demographic structure of the population and its consumption, saving and investment habits in the context of life cycle hypothesis, marginal propensity to consume and the participation of the government sector in the economy (e.g. health care provision, social security, etc.).

Input-output models allow quantification of direct and indirect linkages in the structure of an economy. Based on these linkages, it is possible to evaluate in details the effects of various sectors on the national economy. This paper focuses on the exporting sectors that are considered to be the main industries of Slovak economy. Its aim is to examine their direct and indirect impacts on Slovakia's economy. From the point of view of assessing the effects and structural links of export industries for the Slovak economy, the computer, electronic and optical product manufacturing sector appears to be relatively the least important sector. The automobile production does not generate a high value added per unit of production but its importance for Slovak production is significant. From the point of view of demand and supply linkages, none of the monitored export sectors seemed to be the key for Slovak economy.

The growing number of players in world trade increases competition among countries. It has also a significant implication for the EU member states that are differently dependant on international trade. The object of the paper was to evaluate the export competitiveness and productivity of the EU member states in 2000-2015 using the Factor Analysis and the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method. The results of trade analyses confirmed that the level of the export competitiveness was different in the individual EU member states and that it had also been changed during the monitored period. However, the original hypothesis about the level of export productivity was not confirmed. The results of the DEA analysis pointed more to economic convergence in the trade area between the new and old EU member states than to export productivity. The development of the EU trade was influenced by globalisation processes accompanied by trade liberalisation, but also the EU integration process.

The traditional view of international economics is that exchange rate is a leading factor which can strongly affect a country's foreign trade. However, the production fragmentation widespread around the world due to the recent globalization may weaken the role of exchange rate on international trade. As the Czech economy is a very open one, a quantitative knowledge of the impact of exchange rate on export is a valuable information for all actors in the economy. In our contribution, we examine effect of the exchange rate of the Czech crown on domestic export in three macroeconomic models in both short and long run. The first one is a Keynesian model representing the demand for export in the form of marginal propensities. The second one is a VAR model in elasticities of the reduced form. The last one is a structural model resulting from the findings from the previous one. To estimate their parameters, we use quarterly data from 2000 Q1 to 2016 Q1. In all three cases we identify statistically significant impact of exchange rate on export in short-run models.

The intensification of globalization and fragmentation of production processes requires new approaches that allow as us capture complex linkaged between industries and national economies. In this article, we show how input-output analysis based on World input-output tables can be employed to analyze the complex relations in the economy. Using structural decomposition analysis, we analyze the sources of value added and employment changes in choosen countries in pre-crisis period. We show the importance of trade with intermediate goods and participation in global value chains on value added and employment creation.

In this paper, we analyze the extent of the impact of FDI on the host economy according to theoretical predictions. Within a broader context of international trade flows, we focus on inter-industry interactions between a multinational enterprise (MNE) that enters the domestic market and other firms in the economy. We seek to determine if the MNE uses domestic suppliers of intermediate goods or if it purchases its supplies from abroad or from other MNEs entering the downstream sector. Our analysis covers both Western and Eastern European countries over the period 2001-2007. Our results show that FDI increases the demand for intermediary goods. However, domestic producers of these goods can benefit only partially from this positive shock, since they are at the same time crowded-out by MNEs entering the upstream sector as well as by importers.

The sovereign debt crisis inside the European Monetary Union (EMU) as well as competitiveness problems of some EMU members made the members and non-members of the club address one question: Is a monetary union advantageous? This paper deals with the issue whether or not the Maastricht criteria are good indicators for deciding to join the eurozone, namely for a small open economy, as the Czech Republic. In particular, this analysis addresses the issue of price competition, which can be measured by the real effective exchange rate. In fact, the Maastricht criteria do not reflect the competitiveness of a country. Thus the arguments concerning the advantages/disadvantages of the adoption of a common currency should not be based only on the Maastricht criteria, but at first on the philosophy of the real effective exchange rate. We define a basis for setting new criteria to decideing on joining the monetary union. To sum up, if depreciation/devaluation of the real exchange rate is not a competitive advantage for both Czech exports and the Czech economy (especially in the long term), then the main economic argument against joining the EMU disappears.

The article analyses relationship between exports of goods and services of Slovakia and the development of economy of Germany as its major trading partner. On the basis of available data, it identifies the extent to which the export of SR depends on development of GDP in Germany, changes of its internal demand and also the extent to which there is a correlation between Slovak and German exports. Cointegration analysis, used to obtain relevant information about these links, verified on real data if there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between these variables and whether the intensity of dependence is really so high. Achieved results suggest that the Slovak exports and imports of goods to Germany, as well as the export of goods from Germany abroad, shows an intensive, long-term equilibrium relationship which largely determines the performance of Slovak economy and its competitiveness on international markets.

Until now there is no scientific consensus about the concept of national competitiveness. Despite the ambiguity of its definition, it has become a goal of numerous political documents. Economic policies in many countries are devoted to raise their overall competitiveness. But an unclear definition of relations between different components of national competitiveness represents an obstacle to formulate effective political measures. The aim of this paper is to clarify the relation between the competitiveness of the Czech Republic and its export performance which is considered as one of ways to improve overall competitiveness. The contribution of external competitiveness to the export performance of the Czech Republic in European Union is quantified using an econometric version of Constant Market Shares analysis. The results suggest that the external competitiveness of the Czech Republic has significantly positive effects on its export performance. Moreover we conclude that the positive spillover effect from external to aggregate competitiveness could be reach via increasing productivity.

The paper uses Heckman correction to estimate gravity models of trade of the Czech and Slovak Republics for the period 1995-2012. Additionally, separate gravity models are estimated for 4-year panels of the period using Tobit method. The research shows that importance of common border for the countries' bilateral trade with third countries has been gradually declining. This is in line with accelerating globalization and lower shipping prices. On the other hand, contrary to expectations importance of distance in bilateral trade has not been decreasing; it appears that the so-called "distance puzzle" is present in the Czech and Slovak Republics. The model also confi rms that membership in the European Union is an important determinant of bilateral trade - its statistical signifi cance has been detected since 2004.

We analyze the effect of the large set of theoretically motivated determinants on international trade among European countries during the period 1992-2008. The determinats cover areas of culture, institutions, infrastructure, and geography, including trade directions. We analyze trade in three types of goods: raw materials, parts and components, and capital goods. For each type of goods we differentiate trade in flows, extensive margin, and intensive margin. Methodologically we first derive fixed effects related to unique pairs of countries in terms of exports andimports. Then we explain the fixed effects with the set of trade determinants. We show number of detailed results that could be summarized in a following way. Geographical, cultural, and institutional determinants exhibit intuitively correct but varying effects. Soft and hard infrastructures exhibit strong and positive effect. Trade directions between new and old EU members plays a key role in the European trade.

Based on the gravity model of the trade with imperfect specialization we suggest a testable econometric specification. The model considers bilateral gravity equation as a statistical relationship limited by the multilateral specialization patterns among countries. We test the model on disaggregated bilateral trade data of the European Union (EU) countries. Our results show that trade in final goods between East and West in Europe is driven by multilateral specialization incentives. The identified key drivers are supply side country differences in labour costs with respect to the rest of the world. This finding is compatible with the idea of incomplete specialization. We also show that trade between old and new EU members is realized more though increasing variety of products rather than by intensifying trade with established products.

A phenomenon of globalization of world economy leads to diminishing of the borders between states. There is an important role of international trade in this process, which appears in much more heterogeneous forms than in the past. While the classical theory of foreign trade basically assumed commodity trade with the final products, due to fragmentation of production chains the major part of trade is performed with intermediate goods and also the trade in services becomes more and more dynamic. Increasing volume of the trade between countries is carried out without changing the ownership of traded goods, and vice versa - changing the ownership of goods without crossing the border of the country. There is important role of multinational enterprises, which are currently behind most of the economic operations. The major implication of these phenomena is increasingly difficult possibility to capture the statistical data correctly and therefore to obtain objective data on the behaviour of the economy for analytical purposes and economic policy.

The article deals with the export credit promotion in the Czech Republic. The econometric analysis of the gravity model of Czech trade shows that the credit support provided by specialized government agency, Czech Export Bank, has a positive but statistically weak influence on export. The other determinants of the Czech export in our model are GDP, distance, gross fixed capital formation, and policy risk. The comparison of estimated tax revenues from the supported projects with government subsidies provided to the Czech Export Bank shows that export promotion does not create a financial burden for the government budget. The budgetary costs of export credit support are offset by the tax revenues generated by supported export.

Economic globalisation can be defined as growing interdependence of financial and goods and services markets in the international scale. The important part of globalisation form supranational corporations, which are reaction on the rising competitiveness and need for strategic alliances. The more open is the economy, the more important are the effects of globalisation on the goods and capital flows. This is the case of the Czech Republic, which is vitally dependent on the successful export performance. The export performance is relatively specialized concerning its product and territorial structure. In the period after EU accession the intensity of international cooperation grew rapidly in all the Central European countries, which is mostly the result of the huge FDI inflow at the beginning of the decade. Generally the process of globalisation has its positive and negative effects. For the Czech Republic the positive aspects of globalisation prevail due to its geographical location, qualified and cheap labour force and EU membership.

The competitive ability of the processing industry in the SR occurs most often in classical types of production characterised by lower level of added value. Commodities with a low added value participate in worsening the balance of trade of the SR. The high export demand of industrial production also contributes to it. The changes in branch structure of processing industry of the SR are continuously reflected in a change of foreign trade structure. Its orientation is on the products less demanding and primarily on raw materials and energetic sources. In spite of this there is visible the tendency to be focused on exports in lower added value products in Slovak processing industry. The worsening of Slovak processing industry status is visible in the commodities where the export is confronted with new industrialized countries production (mainly in textile industry) but also with countries so-called "mono-cultural" (food, drinks, tobacco). In the given examples there is a strong tendency in the SR to lower the trade volume with these commodities. The analysis results show the increase of traffic means in Slovak foreign trade. Automobile industry is coming to the top and it has become the basic branch of the Slovak industry. The trend of development is from one point of view positive not only from the point of view of volume but also from the investment structures from the side of big investors. But on the other hand the SR has become, by this development, more sensible to fluctuation on the world markets. Processing industry is behind in its competitive ability in comparison with high-tech branches. The causes of it are low expenditures for research and development that should be used in these branches and they subsequently cause the low level of creating the level of added value. Marked falling behind in competitive ability of these branches is shown in their low shares in a foreign trade.

This paper deals with regional integration in general and examines the intra-regional trade of selected regional groups and trade blocks as a comparative analysis. We pay particular attention to the periods after the founding of regional integration ( NAFTA and MERCOSUR) and after the signing of the AFTA (regards ASEAN) as well as the crucial years prior to and following the Asian crisis and since 1990 to 2003 for EU as a result of processes of trade liberalization in the mentioned regional groups. Using the statistical analysis, we found that the ratio of intra-EU trade has decreased from 66 per cent in 1993 to 60 per cent in 2003. In terms of the ratio of intra-NAFTA trade, this has signed increasingly trend during the period 1994-2003 and reached about 7 per cent growth. Similar trend has signed the ratio of intra-ASEAN trade, which increased more speed than the whole ASEAN trade, particularly after the signing of AFTA. Different trend was noticed on intra-MERCOSUR trade, which registered an increase up to 1998 and then it was sharply reversed.

Empirical research on the differences between unit values in the EU's trade with the Czech Republic and the intra-EU average has shown a significant changes. The comparative level of manufacturing products imported from the Czech republic has increased, the comparative level of products exported to the Czech republic has decreased. The price-gaps, inherited from the communist regime have been substantially reduced. Most remarkable changes of the comparative prices took place in trade with products of metalworking industries. The favourable development of price relations in the Czech foreign trade has been an important element underlying balance of payments performance, it has contributed to the nominal and real improvements of Czech krown and shoud play an importent role in the process of convergence. The analysis is based on Eurostat Comext Database.

Trade performance of EU-candidate countries in 1996 - 2000 is assessed in terms of specialization deepening and widening. The process of technology catching-up is analyzed from quantitative and qualitative aspects. The former stresses the tendency towards increasing geography and product concentration, which brings higher sensitivity to industry specific external demand shocks, the latter points to the limited skills and technology intensities within the segments of international production value chains located in the EU-candidate countries. The remarkable technology catch-up visible in trade statistics therefore mostly relies on external sources of knowledge and technology, as the innovation capacity in transition economies remains low. Without an adequate development of national knowledge and technology base the potential of qualitative spillovers accompanying FDI remains limited and the (cost-based) comparative advantage turns out to be rather short-lived.