E44 - Financial Markets and the MacroeconomyNávrat zpět

Over a period of more than three decades from 1982 to 2019, this study examines the impact of financial globalization on financial development, taking into account differences between developed and developing countries. It also examines sub-indices of financial-development and provides a comprehensive perspective on the topic. The analyses in this study use the Durbin-Hausman panel cointegration test, which provides more precise and less biased results for panel data with a large number of units and the augmented mean group (AMG) estimator, which combines the advantages of both fixed-effects and random-effects estimators to provide more efficient and robust forecasts. Empirical findings reveal a long-run association between financial development and financial globalization across both developed and developing economies. Notably, while the coefficients of this relationship are consistently positive in both groups, statistical significance is observed only in developed countries. This result implies that the positive effect of financial globalization on financial development is more pronounced in developed countries. It also points to the importance of market participants in developed and developing countries making financial decisions in line with their countries' level of development.

This critical review explains the negative impact of the euro on the Spanish economy and its distortion in the period from 2002 to 2014. In this first cycle within the euro area, there was a financial boom, without voluntary savings, which generated a lack of coordination in the economic process and structure. The result was a bubble of overconsumption and malinvestments, which burst with a deflation of capital and wages, and a switch from construction industry to tourism services as Spain's main economic sector. The economic distortion was such that it delayed the exit from the Great Recession of 2008 and the European Financial Crisis of 2010 until 2014, with a recovery and the beginning of a new cycle. The Austrian business cycle theory and capital-based macroeconomics are used to support and illustrate the case study, with quantitative techniques: not to predict, but only to show the real development and to facilitate dialogue with other economic schools.

The article deals with the question of whether there is an equilibrium relationship between long-term interest rates and rental yields or real estate prices. In the theoretical part, an arbitrage relationship with the real estate market is shown, emphasizing the importance of nominal interest rates in the house price-setting process. Simplified theoretical relationships are empirically tested on panel data for a number of countries in the world. The results suggest that there is a cointegrating relationship between long-term interest rates and rental yields. Rental yields tend to adjust to interest rates over a long time period dominantly through house price movements, not rent price movements. Furthermore, among other things, we found that house prices are positively influenced by lower investment freedom or higher ratio of people aged 20-34 to people 65+. Finally, a simple model-based outlook for house prices in Czechia is shown, suggesting a "soft landing" of house prices in 2023 and following years.

The central banks of developed countries and those in the region of Central Europe responded to the global financial crisis of 2008 and subsequent economic recession by considerably easing monetary conditions and using new monetary policy tools. One of those tools was the entry into the so far uncharted territory of negative interest rates. The passage of some years after the inception of these new tools has allowed the emergence of new empirical literature, which addresses their effects and effectiveness. The primary objective of this paper is to examine and summarize the empirical literature that deals with the effective lower limit of interest rates, especially in relation to the banking sector and bank interest margins. We then use empirical findings from other countries and apply them to the Czech Republic and draw conclusions for the future monetary policy of the CNB. Our results confirm that the CNB has got enough manoeuvring room even in the area of negative interest rates, which it can take advantage of either for the purpose of price stability, or for more effective management of FX operations.

Relative changes in home and foreign assets of the Czech banking system are negatively correlated in the period 1996-2017. The target of the research is to test this empirical fact deeply to explain how far this is only a balance sheet effect that is a result of booking the exchange rate changes in monetary survey statistics and how far this is a consequence of economic system behaviour. Our empirical analysis using the Granger causality test and the unconditional ARDL ECM model does not rule out the validity of the balance sheet hypothesis. Besides, it explains the economic nature of this phenomenon in relationship with GDP, exchange rate, foreign reserves, short-term interest rates and bank capital dynamics and confirms a possibility of substitutions between net home and foreign assets of a banking system within a money creation process represented by the M2 monetary aggregate.

The paper is discussing CNB FX intervention and its impact on all segments of Czech financial markets from process and volumes of transactions point of view and possible consequences. The focus is on foreign exchange, bond and stock market. Although the impact of FX intervention was evident on all markets under discussion, it was not so significant having macroeconomic effects. The only exception is the FX market. The Czech National Bank contributed to the widening gap between market and equilibrium exchange rate. The undervalued Czech currency will have a temporal positive impact on the macroeconomic external balance.

The paper discusses Federal reserve's monetary policy during banking crisis interim 1929 - 1933. Main goal of the paper is to discuss the monetary policy implementation problems during 1930s based on Real-bills and Riefler-Burgess doctrine. First part of the paper reveals possible conflict between FED's monetary tools and targets arising from gold exchange standard. Expansionary monetary policy during banking crisis was potentially strongly limited by conflict among U.S. financial stability and sustainability of the gold standard. The second part describes monetary policy implementation during 1920s. The third part discusses FED's open market operations during the banking crisis and the fourth part explains the behavior of the interest rates. Finally, the work concludes that FED managed liquidity of U.S. banking system inappropriately and caused many bank deposit suspensions. FED considered monetary condition to be easy and sufficient to cover needs of production. Money interest rates responded very moderately to shortage of banking system's liquidity. We can find the origin of quantitative easing in 1932 when FED first bought large quantities of government securities. This policy was insufficient because of short term duration and the gold outflow neutralizations.

Central banks of major advanced economies have already started their sixth year of the greatest ever experiment in monetary policy at place. First, special measures were taken to prevent collapse of financial intermediation. At the same time main policy rates were cut down to historical lows hitting the zero lower bound quite soon after the onset of the financial crisis. After that central banks realised various unconventional measures in order to support their weak economies. While exceptional instruments aimed at restoring financial markets seem to have been inevitable to avert a collapse of a much greater magnitude in the short run, some other measures have remained disputable. Not only had these measures limited effectiveness in restoring stronger and sustainable economic growth, but concerns have also been raised recently about their unintended consequences. These side-effects concern not only domestic economies but international spillovers on many vulnerable less advanced and/or developing economies have been evident. Moreover, potential risks of the unprecedented measures may start to act fully in a longer horizon. Quantitative easing has led to enormous increases in balance sheets of the Fed, the BoE and ECB; however structural differences on the asset side have been evident. Main challenge for major central banks thus seems to be the right timing and structure of inevitable exit strategies in the near future so that a smooth exit with minimal side effects could be guaranteed.

The objective of the article is to identify impact of economic policy implications on current financial and economic crisis. The analysis examines a hypothesis that the main causes of financial and economic crisis include unbalanced developments of the macroeconomic sphere as well as existing weaknesses of banking systems, which often do not evolve in line with the development of economy fundamentals. The article is going to inspect three areas: (i) What development trends and economic policy were registered in the pre-crisis period in order to identify the main causes of economic fluctuations of economy; (ii) How economic policies responded to the course of the financial and economic crisis; (iii) What was the effect financial crisis had on the real economy development? The main task for after-crisis periods is to improve setting of monetary and fiscal policy, bank risk management system and also system for monitoring and analysing the business cycle.

This paper provides a theoretical framework for a thesis that the transition to the inflation targeting regime, either explicit or implicit, may be one of the causes of the long-term latent accumulations of the financial and structural imbalances, materializing much later and with more dire consequences. Due to the long-term systematic manipulation of interest rates, within the operational framework of the stabilization of consumer prices and the output gap, as well as of anti-deflationary fundamentalism, the economy can transform itself into a kind of "black box", gradually and over time causing an "escape" of credit and monetary aggregates. Money supply tends to be more endogenous and elastic, changing the causality within a link between the money supply and its effective economic materialization, both in production processes of the real economy as well as in banking and financial services. Thereby, the economy lacks a needful defensive mechanism that would pull the overheating economy back through more exogenous and inelastic money supply, automatically adjusting market interest rates. In the empirical part we employed VECM tests to show that the money supply was exogenous before the implicit adoption of inflation targeting in the USA (1985), but endogenous after it.

The relatively long term period of stability before the present crises called even "Great Moderation" or "Golden Age of Central Banking" indicated that the infl ation targeting was a success story. As of 2008 a lot has changed and the debate over "Leaning against the wind or Clean afterwards?" is being revisited among central bankers and academicians. At the same time the question "Does money matter in monetary policy" is on the table again. This paper focuses on the discussion of these issues; moreover, some new challenges that emerged in previous three years are discussed. The crisis has highlighted an urgent need to incorporate banks and financial frictions into monetary policy modelling framework - therefore some new findings on this field of research are outlined. An important lesson from the crises is that price stability is not a sufficient precondition for financial stability, therefore an operational framework for financial stability is being searched - this is subject of the final part of this paper.

Learning process is a new approach of filling the gap between adaptive expectations and rational expectations. Private agents are learning new information and adjust their expectation about the inflation and output gap. Central bank transparency is one of the key factors of learning by private agents. However the learning process is also very important aspect for central bankers to improve their credibility.

Our study contains application of Latent Semantic Indexing on financial crises prediction. Hypothesis to test was that equity markets are able to predict even sharp changes in monetary policy during a quarter ahead of such a change (which was searched during two quarters that followed). This hypothesis, tested on sample of 36 countries between years 1985 and 2007, has been confirmed according to interest rate and foreign exchange expert interpretation. The studied application of LSI even though it timed several crises on their exact start day is not suitable for financial crises prediction but can be recommended for specification and analysis of fragile countries which are or could be prone to a crisis.

The article discusses problems of the empirical verification of the relative version of the theory of purchasing power parity based on aggregated price indexes (especially using the consumer price index). The goal of the articles is to compare empirical results obtained from cross-country time series analysis using cointegration analysis, Error Correction Model, as well as VAR analysis. The authors tested 21 currency pairs of the U.S.A., Canada, Japan, Switzerland, the Great Britain, Norway, and Sweden in the period between 1975 and 2007. All tested time series were cointegrated of the first order with the exception of the consumer price index of Switzerland, which was cointegrated of the second order. The results of cointegration analysis are not very robust. This is explained by the authors as follows: existence of high transaction costs in an arbitrage, existence of complementary goods and oligopoly structure of exports, and expected back reaction between exchange rate and inflation.

The paper analyzes the relationship between interest rate transmission mechanism and bank's management of interest rate risk during the disinflation monetary policy in the Czech Republic in 1999-2006. In theoretical part, main determinants of short-run and long-run equilibrium of client interest rates are discussed (market power, duration of credits and deposits, pricing mechanism, credit risk, operation efficiency). Using the error correction model, sensitivity of credit and deposit interest rates on market interest rates is tested. It is found out that in the short equilibrium client interest rates changes follow dynamics of CNB repo rate, the sensitivity of credit and deposit interest rates differs and banks face up the pressure on interest margin. The cointegration analysis confirms change of equilibrium interest rate margin in the long-run and supports hypothesis of consistency between Czech National Bank monetary policy and its expected outcomes by banks.

The paper deals with the impact of new information on the fixed income market. We expect this to be the first study covering such a topic in Central European markets. We prepared a model of a market reaction and found out that the market is not significantly driven by new macroeconomic figures. The sharpest moves have never been caused by a new number, but developments abroad and unexpected statements of central bankers. Scheduled central bank decisions on the interest rates did not affect yields as much as these two factors. The main message of this text for short term investors is, that in contrast to the USA, it is better for them to follow trading abroad than the Czech fundamentals.

The paper deals with theoretical and empirical aspects of the interactions between monetary policy and swap rates in the Czech Republic in 1999 through to 2005. In the theoretical part main sources of volatility of swap and forward rates on changes of repo rate are studied (actual stage of business cycle and changing level of monetary restriction, investor's misunderstanding of future main policy rate dynamics or inconsistency between expected monetary policy outcomes and actual dynamics of real level of repo rate). The empirical analysis proved low sensitivity of Czech crowns swap and forward rates to CNB repo rate changes, high volatility of interest rates relations in case of long-lasting repo rate changes and also problems with CNB's credibility at the beginning of 2000's. It was also found out that investor's mid-term and long-term inflation expectation could differ substantially due to expected convergence of economy to low inflation economic system.

The paper deals with unintended consequences of the monetary union for the level of debt in the member countries of the eurozone. First, it is shown that there exist systematic inflation and real interest rate differentials among the member countries. These differentials reach up to 3 percentage points per year between the high inflation countries (e.g. Ireland) and the low inflation ones (e.g. Germany). Different rates of growth of private or total domestic debt in individual countries were closely connected to inflation differentials. Thus the debt was rising very rapidly in high inflation countries. Surprisingly, national saving rates remained stable in most countries so they cannot explain the differences in growth rates of the debt. Instead we proposed a portfolio model of the debt according to which the change in the debt is due to a reshuffle of individual portfolios. The model also implies that asset prices should change in the same direction as does the debt. This seems to have been the case in the eurozone as well.

A purpose of this paper is to formulate a continuous dynamical model for a small closed economy with a simple structure and with a minimum number of non-linearities. A basis of this model is developed from dynamical Kaldorian model. Variables in the modified dynamical Kaldorian model are in a logarithm scale. A form of the logistic function is used for non-linear connections in this model. The model is formed by four differential equations. First two equations create relatively closed sub-model generating both production and capital stock trajectories. Two other equations describe the price level dynamics as a consequence of money market disequilibrium and continuously adaptive expectation of inflation. Our investigation is firstly aimed to investigate a dynamics of the production and capital stock. Secondly to compute Ljapunov exponents for a simple model of closed economy showing its a chaotic behavior. Simulation studies are performed on numerical calibrated model.

The paper presents a dynamic approach to the theory of uncovered interest rate parity. It is examined the dynamic relation between the actual change in spot exchange rate and interest rate differential. Authors show the hypothesis of uncovered interest rate parity is based on an ex ante view and that is the reason that the expected change in spot exchange rate cannot be replaced by an ex post approach. The dynamic approach developed in the paper is empirically tested for five transitive countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The model is estimated using both VAR and cointegration analyses. The model of error correction is also included in the empirical verification of the model.

The article discusses a current account imbalance in the eurozone member countries, respectively whether the economic policy institutions should respond to the rising external imbalance, even if there is no threat of the monetary crisis. The monetary policy reactions can not be expected resulting from the general current account surplus in the eurozone as the whole. The relevancy of deficits for the eurozone member countries acts as an important factor by an intertemporal budget constraint, where the threat of the monetary crisis that limits the foreign debt accumulation is eliminated and at the same time the financial integration joint with the higher trade market integration enables wider intertemporal consumption allocation venting into the deficit of current account. The mastering of a credit risk by the financial institutions will have a major influence on then optimal intertemporal consumption allocation, if there is no revision of a fiscal policy role.