E40 - Money and Interest Rates: GeneralNávrat zpět

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-term effects of money supply, economic growth, interest rate, exchange rate, domestic credits and the oil price on inflation in Haiti, Sudan, Türkiye and Zambia, which are among the world’s highest-inflation countries according to 2021 data. For this purpose, a panel cointegration approach is applied where fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) techniques are employed to explore the long-term effects with the help of annual data for the period 2000–2019. Also, the Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel causality test is used to determine whether there is a causality from these variables to inflation. The empirical findings show that there is a long-term relationship among these variables for the whole panel. The consequences from the FMOLS and DOLS estimates show that (i) money supply has a positive effect on inflation, (ii) economic growth affects inflation positively, (iii) an in-crease in the exchange rate causes inflation to rise, (iv) the oil price affects inflation positively, (v) interest rate affects inflation negatively, and (vi) domestic credits have a negative effect on inflation. In this context, we find that the exchange rate is the variable that has the greatest effect on inflation. Moreover, the findings of the panel causality test suggest that there is a causal relationshipfrom money supply, economic growth, exchange rate and the oil price to inflation.

The central banks of developed countries and those in the region of Central Europe responded to the global financial crisis of 2008 and subsequent economic recession by considerably easing monetary conditions and using new monetary policy tools. One of those tools was the entry into the so far uncharted territory of negative interest rates. The passage of some years after the inception of these new tools has allowed the emergence of new empirical literature, which addresses their effects and effectiveness. The primary objective of this paper is to examine and summarize the empirical literature that deals with the effective lower limit of interest rates, especially in relation to the banking sector and bank interest margins. We then use empirical findings from other countries and apply them to the Czech Republic and draw conclusions for the future monetary policy of the CNB. Our results confirm that the CNB has got enough manoeuvring room even in the area of negative interest rates, which it can take advantage of either for the purpose of price stability, or for more effective management of FX operations.

Using a cointegration, we show that there is no long-term relationship between money in the economy M and real (and nominal) GDP and CPI (US data from 1959 to 2018). There is no empirical evidence to support the textbook claim that "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". Only when we shorten the time series to the period before the crisis (1959-2008), there is a cointegration between CPI and M2, but only at the 10% significance level and only according to one of two co-integration tests. The relationship that existed before the crisis either had to fall apart or change. There are three possible explanations: (1) The growth of M in low-inflation economies (CPI below 10% annually) is distributed more equally between CPI and real GDP than in the event of significant changes in M. (2) The falling velocity of money after the crisis of 2008/2009. (3) The last possibility is an increase in the adequacy problem of inflation - the CPI does not adequately reflect the economic definition of inflation.

The paper explains wider economic, financial and macroeconomic context of the unconventional monetary policy during 2001-2006 in Japan. The objective of the article is complex discussion of Bank of Japan's unconventional monetary policy measures from theoretical and practical point of view. The structure of the papers is following: the fi rst part reveals macroeconomic condition behind unconventional monetary policy, the second part describes changes in monetary policy implementation, focuses also on commercial assets purchasing and describes exit strategy as well. The last part of the paper evaluates unconventional monetary policy impacts. Bank of Japan achieved accommodative financial condition and reduced uncertainty in the money market. Large liquidity buffer works preventive in case of unexpected liquidity shocks. Excess ample liquidity did not support prices and real economic activity considering broader deleveraging process and corporate markets fragmentation. Entry and exits strategy was successful without financial markets disruption but exit was not complete. Finally, the paper can conclude, that unconventional monetary policy had positive stabilization effect without significant transmission to the real economy.

The demand for cash in the Czech Republic is characterized since the establishment of the Czech currency in 1993 by a steady upward trend that has been disrupted by several non-standard episodes. One of the episodes was a substantial surge in Czech currency holdings after the outbreak of the financial crisis in late 2008. Results based on a model of currency demand show that the increase in currency in circulation in the last quarter of 2008 cannot be explained by common variables, which include retail sales, interest rate, innovation in payment systems, and tourism. Separate models of currency demand for small and large denominations revealed significant differences in terms of sensitivity to different variables. While small-value banknotes are mainly driven by domestic transactions, payment system innovations and tourism, the demand for large-value banknotes depends more on a short-term interest rate. Increased currency demand had to be explicitly modeled only in case of high-denomination banknotes and was best explained by the confidence indicator.

The article discusses the approaches and options for identification of equilibrium exchange rate. It focuses mainly on the outcomes of behavioural (BEER) and fundamental (FEER) model of the equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech Koruna, which are presented in both nominal and real terms. The results of both models of equilibrium exchange rate (BEER and FEER) showed significant long-term appreciation trend, mainly due to faster growth in labour productivity in the Czech Republic compared to the euro area. The results also confirmed the estimates of exchange rate overvaluation by mid-1997 and in 1998, 2002 and 2008. Since 2009, the model suggests a significant slowdown in the appreciation of the equilibrium mainly due to slowing domestic growth rate of labor productivity compared to the euro area.

The article aims to show both the still very strong position of the USD in the global financial system and assess its likely future position. It illustrates that although the U.S. is no longer the dominant global economic power that it was when the dollar became the global reserve currency, the dollar so far is not in immediate danger of losing its privileged position. Despite the challenges facing the USD as the global reserve currency, it continues its dominant role since no other currency has shown itself strong and credible enough to replace it. Considerations on replacing dollar with other currency are no more than a speculation.

The first question that we ask ourselves in our article is whether the accounting of the central bank is supposed to respect the principles of internationally accepted standards (especially the International Financial Reporting Standards). We are looking for the basic differences in understanding of terms such as (il)liquidity and (in)solvency on the level of central and commercial banking. We analyze the economic reasons for origination of the long foreign exchange position of the ČNB which, under the circumstances of trend appreciation of the exchange rate of the Czech crown, is leading to a cumulative loss. We are discussing whether the current level of foreign exchange reserves of the ČNB is excessive or adequate. Special attention is paid to the monetary and financial impact of the loss of the central bank. We are pointing out that losing the central bank means profit for market subjects at the same time. It is not just a "fictitious" accounting problem and it can have its factual impact on the national economy. At the end we are summarizing and assessing the individual opinions regarding the loss of the ČNB.

This paper deals with the evolution of currency in circulation and world trends in selected developed countries. We argue against the opinion that money in their cash form (i.e. notes and coins) will seize to exist within the horizon of fifteen years and that only electronic means of payment will be used in the users' payment mix. We quantify and compare the trend of currency in circulation with main macroeconomic and demographic indicators and focus on finding and defining possible additional qualitative factors that might influence the usage of banknotes and coins. Paper offers a new approach to rising currency in circulation which is not based on quantitative factors but more on the qualitative factors which motivate users to use cash. Furthermore the paper focuses on the regional aspect and describes and compares the cash situation in the Czech Republic. Based on the defined qualitative factors, which are promoting the use of cash and motivating potential users of cash, we come to the conclusion that cash will play its important role in the future as a reliable, safe and user friendly mean of payment.

The article discusses problems of the empirical verification of the relative version of the theory of purchasing power parity based on aggregated price indexes (especially using the consumer price index). The goal of the articles is to compare empirical results obtained from cross-country time series analysis using cointegration analysis, Error Correction Model, as well as VAR analysis. The authors tested 21 currency pairs of the U.S.A., Canada, Japan, Switzerland, the Great Britain, Norway, and Sweden in the period between 1975 and 2007. All tested time series were cointegrated of the first order with the exception of the consumer price index of Switzerland, which was cointegrated of the second order. The results of cointegration analysis are not very robust. This is explained by the authors as follows: existence of high transaction costs in an arbitrage, existence of complementary goods and oligopoly structure of exports, and expected back reaction between exchange rate and inflation.

The article provides a general description of the world money development in both developed and developing countries during the second half of 20th century. We were primarily focusing on the long run trends in dollar gold prices, monetary aggregates (broad and narrow money), foreign exchange reserves, inflation and interest rates. We found that after relatively tranquil periods of fifties and sixties, next three decades witnessed dramatic changes in the world economy. The emphasis that was given to the analysis of the relation of the dollar gold prices to the world reserve currencies (EUR, CHF, GBP and JPY) by means of state-space model confirmed negative correlation between these variables. Subsequently we discussed a concept of neutrality and superneutrality of money in the light of GDP dynamics during monitored period and practical aspects of monetary policy. In spite of some recent empirical findings, we express our belief in the long-run neutrality and superneutrality of money and in relative non-activistic monetary policy with price stability as its primary goal.

The paper presents a dynamic approach to the theory of uncovered interest rate parity. It is examined the dynamic relation between the actual change in spot exchange rate and interest rate differential. Authors show the hypothesis of uncovered interest rate parity is based on an ex ante view and that is the reason that the expected change in spot exchange rate cannot be replaced by an ex post approach. The dynamic approach developed in the paper is empirically tested for five transitive countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The model is estimated using both VAR and cointegration analyses. The model of error correction is also included in the empirical verification of the model.

In the inflation targeting regime the central bank makes a decision about interest rate adjustment based on a forecast, primarily of inflation. Thus a big part of the decisions on interest rate adjustments corresponds to systematic response of central bank to expected economic development. The systematic part of monetary policy - the decision pattern of central bank (similarly as behaviour of other economic agents) must be approximated for purposes of creating a forecast. The aim of this article is to approximate it through estimated monetary policy rule.

This article presents three competing models of money supply determination as derived in Palley (1996). Two of the models can be considered post-keynesian in nature and identified with accommodationist and structuralist approach to money endogeneity. Post-keynesian models are contrasted with orthodox money multiplier model. Presentation of the models enables not only to derive hypothesis for empirical testing but also to compare the two post-keynesian models. The accommodationist and structuralist models are not viewed as mutually inconsistent but rather as complements. Scope for potential synthesis and future research is indicated.