E27 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and ApplicationsNávrat zpět

The aim of the presented research is to quantify the costs of unemployment in the Czech Republic in the years before start of the 2020 exogenous crisis. The costs of unemployment are quantified as direct costs and induced costs. The research method is based on the con- struction of the average unemployed. I identify his/her average income level, length of unemployment and age, as well as level of education. The analysis also quantifies the economic effectiveness of hypothetical economic policy measures in maintaining employment.

This paper builds a simple framework for analysing over- or undersaving of economies in the context of external economic imbalances. Macroeconomic determinants of optimal household and corporate saving, based on microeconomic theory, are used as explanatory variables in a benchmark panel regression model. Among other things, the model shows chronic oversaving of China and other Asian economies (Korea, Japan), and undersaving of the USA and the United Kingdom. Czechia and the other V4 countries showed no significant deviation from the model, nor did Germany or France.

The aim of this paper is to evaluate relative over-investment or under-investment of economies. To achieve this, we build a panel regression for 122 countries, where rates of investment and capital-output ratios are explained by key fundamental variables stemming from the theory in Chapter 1. We present implied-equilibrium values for both variables and all the countries in the sample. Countries of the former Soviet Union, the USA and Germany, for example, were identified as relatively underinvested. Large Asian economies such as China, India and Indonesia, and some countries of Latin America and Africa appeared to be overinvested. No significant imbalance was identified for Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary, while Poland showed to be rela- tively underinvested.

The aim of the paper is to analyse, model and compare selected macroeconomic variables of the Czech and Slovak economies and their dynamics using VAR models. This article shows an application of a selected model on real-time series of chosen macroeconomic indicators using four variables (R - interest rate, M - money supply (M2), P - price level (CPI), Y - GDP). We identify and test two long-run relationships. The following hypotheses have been confirmed: H₁: a change in monetary aggregate affects a change in price level and a change in economic growth; H₂: there is a causal relationship between GDP and M2; H₃: there is a direct correlation between interest rates and the price level anticipated in the Fisher equation. The following methods are used: Granger causality, impulse response function, cointegration and error correction models. In the end, econometric models of macroeconomic time series are compared in the Czech and Slovak economies. The calculations used EViews software.

Predictions of economic activity are sine qua non of economic policy. Nevertheless, predictions are characterised by the high level of inaccuracy; the main aim of the paper is to provide a potential theoretical explanation of frequent failures by focusing on the refl ection of real market proces in forecasting apparatus. It is argued that the role of intermediate products is underestimated in the considerations of future development of economic activity, even if these has presumably higher relevance to the level of economic activity in the future. Mutual relation between expenditures on consumption and production expense is discussed and verifi ed by use of econometric tools. It is found that even if there is long-term relation between consumption and production expenditures, from the short-term perspective, actual consumption does not have statistically signifi cant impact on future decisions of producers.

The ageing of population and its economical, social and political consequences is a topic very frequently discussed. This paper contains the analysis of consequences of the ageing of the Czech population during this century based on the population projection using the latest available data reflecting the results of the last census in 2011. Besides the usual simple (and of course very crude) measures of economic dependency in the population (e.g. various dependency ratios) the paper contains a computation of a more sophisticated measure - the ratio of social dependency - which takes into account not only the amount of personal consumption but also costs of education and health care.

The aim of this article is to explore main linkages among the participation rate, potential output and pension funding system. Based on the existing literature, there are several possibilities how to render the current set-up of the pension system sustainable. This sustainability is conventionally regarded from the perspective of provision of "satisfactory level" of retirement pensions as well as from the perspective of general budgetary impact. In this respect, demographic change is accounted for owing to the common perception that it has a lot to do with how the future pension system should and will look like. It has been found out that if appropriate economic policy measures ‒ targeting mainly labour market participation rate and long-term unemployment ‒ are adopted, no need for abrupt changes in the existing social security system framework is actually necessary. Also, the linkages between the participation rate and potential output seem to be relatively strong, so that the economy could be easily considered as signifi cantly influenced by its labour market. The functioning of the latter thus seems to be pivotal for the resolution of some long-term economic capacity concerns, including its dynamics.