E21 - Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; WealthNávrat zpět

This paper builds a simple framework for analysing over- or undersaving of economies in the context of external economic imbalances. Macroeconomic determinants of optimal household and corporate saving, based on microeconomic theory, are used as explanatory variables in a benchmark panel regression model. Among other things, the model shows chronic oversaving of China and other Asian economies (Korea, Japan), and undersaving of the USA and the United Kingdom. Czechia and the other V4 countries showed no significant deviation from the model, nor did Germany or France.

In an effort to stimulate aggregate demand at the zero lower bound, economists and central bankers have focused on inflation expectations. The key argument is that an increase in inflation expectations may reduce the real interest rate and thus encourage consumption spending. This article examines not only the traditional channels of the fall in the interest rate connected to the relative importance of the substitution and income effects, but it also investigates the impact on the perceived real future labour income. It is shown that if people do not adjust their expectations about future nominal labour income when inflation their expectations rise, the effect on present consumption can be negative, and the aggregate demand might be reduced rather than increased. A graphical and mathematical analysis in the paper exposes the relative importance of traditional channels and this new channel. It is shown that the traditional perspective is only a special case of a more general approach.

This paper examines the influence of relative income on the consumption function, particularly the issue of the precise quantification of the relationship between the propensity to consume and the position of the household in the income distribution represented just by relative income. Mainstream theory of consumption, though it is aware of this effect, for its focus primarily on the aggregate consumption, it doesn't pay much attention to this. However, if it is possible to accurately describe and quantify this so-called relative income effect, it will mean a relevant contribution to the explanation of individual consumption patterns or consumption of income categories. The aim of this work is to find, describe and precisely quantify the impact of relative income on the average propensity to consume on the example of Czech households. To achieve this goal, we use a regression estimation of the dynamic panel using GMM, where the individual panels are set as income categories of households. The results achieved unambiguously confirm the validity of the initial assumption about the existence of functional dependence of the propensity to consume on the relative income and thus it fully supports the idea of interdependent concept of utility and consumption.

The aim of this paper is to show that the current anti-deflationary rhetoric of central banks lacks adequate support from the economic literature. Based on pure theory, there might be both positive and negative effects of deflation on economic development. The historical record is, if anything, also ambiguous. As recent literature reveals, a substantial number of deflationary periods were accompanied by robust economic growth. The two frequently mentioned examples of dismal deflationary periods - the Great Depression in the United States and the lost decades in Japan - seem to be exceptions. Taking into account the arguments presented in this paper, we argue that central banks should revise their communication strategy. If there is a need to defend easy monetary policy, the main argument should be based, dominantly, on the divergence of forecasted inflation from the inflation target, with a much lesser emphasis on the need to avoid the allegedly destructive effect of deflation.

This paper investigates the optimum saving rate from the perspective of the receivers of interest. The first part lists major contributions detected in the literature on the optimum saving rate and differential games of capitalism. The second part explores the socially optimal saving rate connected to the maximum sustainable consumption per person. A new graphical method is used to show the distribution of consumption goods between wage earners and receivers of interest. The optimum saving rate of the receivers of interest is derived in the third section. The mathematical formula indicates that this rate is lower than the golden rule, and it coincides with the optimum of the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model only under specific circumstances.

Pareto efficiency plays the leading role throughout all branches of political economy. Frequently applied on various economic issues, Pareto efficiency decides on the optimal balance of resource distribution among economic agents. On the other hand, the current state of unequal distribution stimulates new economic researches to bring to light the relationship between market mechanism and observed inequality. The aim of the study is to provide a unique perspective on market-based inequalities which are derived from the self-preserving rationality of agents, and to prove that market mechanism inherently contains diverging forces. Additionally, it is showed that such divergences are not investigable by Pareto-optimization process; the process whose frequent misuse and misinterpretation obscures the general diverging drive of market mechanism and the process which may corrupt results of theoretical researches in the field.

The article deals with a problem of changes in inventories, its variability and its synchronization with changing savings and import in the Czech Republic in 1999-2012. In theoretical part both macroeconomic and microeconomic aspects of changes in inventories are discussed in the context of expected and unexpected demand shocks. In empirical part sources of GDP variability are analyzed using trend and cyclical data. Trend variability of changes in inventories is less important for trend GDP variability than in case of cyclical variability and vice versa for cyclical GDP and changes in inventories. Parameters of VAR model of cyclical changes in inventories, savings and import are also estimated. The results show that change in savings is a source of unexpected demand shock with impact on inventories. Reaction of import confirms that savings influence more domestic products consumption than imported products which are more driven by exports.

There are currently held tough discussions among economists and policy makers on the most appropriate form of taxation that would be fair, simple, enough incentive to wage work and entrepreneurship and withal also providing sufficient revenue for the state to fund the services provided to citizens. In this debate two opposing views on the basic form of this system stand against each other, namely, whether it should tax the income in a progressive manner, as is the case with tax systems applied today in most countries, or in a proportional manner, which has been introduced in a limited extent in several countries, especially in Central and Eastern Europe. This article provides a brief description of the basic characteristics of both these approaches and summarizes the main arguments presented by their proponents and opponents. The next section describes the different variants of a proportional system, also known as a flat tax system, some of which currently exist only in the yet unrealized proposals, and in the end, then compare their pros and cons.

The paper analyzes the evolution of the share of final consumption expenditure on aggregate GDP in thirty countries. From the economic point of view, the analysis of final consumption expenditure changes on GDP in connection with the changes in business cycle phases is ambiguous. The authors used their own original statistical test. It shows, on the one hand, how these shares rise in the years of economic crisis, while on the other hand, how they decline during years of economic prosperity. The test also assesses the significance of these changes. The result of the analysis explains the significant changes in the share of final consumption expenditure on GDP over the years.

The paper analyses the intertemporal approach to the balance of payments which is based on the intertemporal approach to the relation between domestic saving and investment. A key element of the presented analysis is whether world capital mobility is high enough to hold a condition that the relation between the domestic saving and investment in a country could vary. The paper contributes to this economic theory by the empirical analysis carried out with a large sample of countries as well as by the analysis of saving and investment distinguishing the set of developed, poor, and transition countries. The paper defines and empirical verifies macroeconomic relationships among saving, investment, the balance of trade and services, and the current account of the balance of payments. The authors define their own hypothesis of the relation among domestic saving, investment, and world capital mobility, which is based on the level of economic development of a country. The results of the analysis are discussed within the context of how to conduct monetary and fiscal policies, as well as within the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate theory.

The study is focused on macroeconomic stability of the Czech economy. The first part (methodological) stems from the system of national accounting which offers two approaches: from the point of view of relationship between domestic supply and demand and between savings and investments. Analytical part examines domestic supply and demand, which is reflected in the balance of foreign trade. There was a positive tendency due to a favourable development in foreign trade. The relation between savings and investments, which is equal to current account balance, looks less favourable. The main source of imbalance is a negative balance of incomes expressing bigger outflow of primary incomes in relation to their inflow. Public finances can be identified as the weakest chain link of economic development. International comparison with new EU Members from middle Europe indicates that keeping macroeconomic stability in acceptable boundaries represents a serious problem.

The paper provides a comprehensive survey of the theories of consumption functions. The Keynesian consumption function is examined in more detail under a condition of a small open economy. The paper explains the variety of consumption expenditures in the Czech Republic between 1993 - 2001. In this paper an enlarged version of the Czech consumption function, also tests Ricardian equivalence. Empirical results imply that consumer behaviour reacts rationally to an external imbalance and the economy heads to equilibrium by itself. However, the consumption reaction seems to be irrational under an internal balance. Consumers do not voluntarily reduce their consumption when deficit of public finance appears but they are forced to do so when interest rates increase as a result of the internal imbalance.