E12 - General Aggregative Models: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-KeynesianReturn

This paper examines the profound effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on South Korean society, particularly focusing on the economic repercussions of a shock in energy use efficiency from Q1 2020 to Q3 2023. Employing advanced Bayesian estimation and impulse response function methods, the study reveals that enhanced energy use efficiency significantly boosts key economic metrics, including output, consumption, employment, energy use, real wages and investment. Additionally, an increase in real money holdings and a decrease in both deposit and loan interest rates are observed. The analysis further explores the impact of monetary policy adjustments made by South Korea to mitigate the economic challenges posed by the pandemic. Our results indicate that these policy shifts temporarily elevate the aforementioned economic variables and raise deposit and loan interest rates, despite a concurrent reduction in real wages. The findings provide critical insights for policy formulation and economic recovery strategies in the context of global health crises.

Economic convergence has become a European research topic of interest during recent decades, particularly since new member countries joined the EU in 2004. Measuring cross-country convergence focuses on real convergence, taking per capita income as a measure of living standards based on the convergence criteria defined by Sala-i-Martin (1996). The objective of this paper is to bring together supply-side (real convergence) and demand-side (BoP-constrained approach) concepts of economic growth aimed at identification of convergence sources in the emerging economies of the Visegrad Group. The sustainability of convergence in this study utilizes the BoP-constrained growth theory developed by A. Thirlwall (1979). Our results show that all the countries in the Visegrad Group exhibit relatively instant convergence, which could continue considering the intensity and direction of structural changes that affect the export demand elasticities and labour productivity.

The traditional view of international economics is that exchange rate is a leading factor which can strongly affect a country's foreign trade. However, the production fragmentation widespread around the world due to the recent globalization may weaken the role of exchange rate on international trade. As the Czech economy is a very open one, a quantitative knowledge of the impact of exchange rate on export is a valuable information for all actors in the economy. In our contribution, we examine effect of the exchange rate of the Czech crown on domestic export in three macroeconomic models in both short and long run. The first one is a Keynesian model representing the demand for export in the form of marginal propensities. The second one is a VAR model in elasticities of the reduced form. The last one is a structural model resulting from the findings from the previous one. To estimate their parameters, we use quarterly data from 2000 Q1 to 2016 Q1. In all three cases we identify statistically significant impact of exchange rate on export in short-run models.

Paper deals with an important area of monetary economics, the demand for money. Concretely we propose results from an empirical investigation of determinants of the demand for real money balances in the Czech Republic. From the methodological point of view we use models of multivariate time series analysis in the co-integrated context, the VAR and VEC models, and the generalized impulse response functions for an estimation of trajectories of adjustment processes. Based on the results, we can say that the real money balances in the broader definition (in the sense of M2 monetary aggregate) are demanded by economic agents in relation to a long-run evolution of their needs, and during this, they are not systematically influenced by economic shocks. This also implies stability and simple predictability of the demand. Demand in the narrow sense, including currency and demand deposits, exhibits a greater volatility due to different shocks. Therefore this narrow demand is continuously adjusted to arising disequilibriums, going from both inside and outside of the economy. Nevertheless in the long run there exists an equilibrium relationship among the demand for real money balances in the narrow sense, the interest rate, the real effective exchange rate and the rate of unemployment. Majority of observed relationships is consistent with a priori assumptions, which are formulated through a theoretical model. Finally, it is possible to show, that direct long-run equilibrium relationship between the demand for real money balances in the narrow sense and the volume of transactions (or real production) does not exist. On the contrary, we have also found that a transactions demand is influenced by the business cycle. However the elasticity of transactions demand with respect to the business cycle is relatively small and hence we conclude that a considerable part of this demand is constant over time and a speculative demand is more important for the description of the demand for real money balances development. The difference between a behavior of the demand for real money balances in the narrow and in the broader definition, we are explaining by a portfolio re-optimization effect.

Paper deals with the European Monetary Union from perspective of Post Keynesian school of economic thought. It discusses separately arguments often proposed by mainstream economists. After the brief introduction, which highlights main differences between mainstream and Post Keynesian economic theory, work deals in sequence with trade argument often found in discussion about monetary unification, monetary issues mainly with the role of European Central Bank and lastly, work appraises European Monetary Union from international monetary arrangement perspective proposed by Post Keynesian economists. Based on this evaluation, work concludes stating that Post Keynesian economists are more likely not to be overenthusiastic with European monetary unification.

New concepts have been presented in modelling of inflation dynamics recently, among others the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). There are several traditional ways of NKPC model validity testing, but none of them seems to be practically applicable in conditions of the Czech Republic. We tried to test the validity of the NKPC model by the untraditional method proposed by Demery and Duck (2002). This method does not rely on direct estimation of NKPC parameters, but relatively easy tests based on the cointegration analysis of time series are employed. Its application indicates that the NKPC model cannot be considered as effective in conditions of the Czech Republic; this model does not describe the inflation process sufficiently and it is not a suitable model for inflation prediction or for the choice of appropriate monetary (anti-inflation) policy.

The post-Keynesian approach to the nature of money brings some other conclusion to the monetary policy, independence of a central bank and function of commercial banks. The source money is created by demand of businessmen especially. Loans create deposits, deposits create reserves. Central bank plays two roles: lender of last resort and inflation supervisor. Creditting by commercial banks and their credit policy in post-Keynesian economics is considered as credit rationing. If the role of central bank - lender of last resort - is not connected with changes of regulation, which reduce new practice of financial markets to avoid regulation, the influence of central bank to fight with inflation declines. Post-Keynesian economics is not directed against competence and independence of central bank. On the contrary, it welcomes the more direct influence of central bank on commercial banks and other financial institutions, however, with use of alternative limiting facilities.