E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental AccountsNávrat zpět

Environmental poverty is a global concern for developed and developing economies, particularly in light of sustainable development goals. Unlike previous research, this study evaluates the role of political risk index and income level on environmental poverty in developed regions, namely, OECD economies in the period 2004-2022. We also examine the role of renewable energy consumption. We initially developed a multidimensional index for assessing weighted average environmental poverty alongside a novel index to gauge political risk within OECD economies. We employ several panel econometric procedures, including cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity, CIPS unit root circle for identifying unit roots and Westerlund cointegration for long-run connection among variables. Besides, the study employed cross-sectional autoregressive distributive lags (CS-ARDL) to identify the short-run and long-run impact of explanatory variables on environmental poverty. The results show that variables are heterogenous and cross-sectionally dependent. Moreover, the unit roots are found within the unit root circle, implying that variables are static at the first difference and long-run equilibrium exists among variables. The empirical results confirm that the political risk index reduces environmental poverty. A one-percent increase in the betterment of the political risk index lowers environmental poverty by -0.022% and -0.034%, respectively. However, the results for PRI in the short run are inconclusive while effective in the long run. Since the OECD countries have lower political risk and effective PRI, economic and financial activities spur, which leads to the positive influence of income on environmental poverty. A one-percent increase in income level (GDP) increases environmental poverty in OECD countries by 1.21% and 1.34% in the short and long run. Conversely, the results for renewable energy consumption (REC) are negative in both the short and long run and we conclude that REC significantly reduces environmental poverty in the region. Besides, the robustness analysis employed through an augmented mean group (AMG) estimator is reported to have similar and robust results. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test reports that REC and environmental poverty (ENVP) have bidirectional causal linkage and provide feedback to each other, while GDP and PRI have a unidirectional connection and no feedback effect is found. Relevant policies are inferred from the conclusions.

The aim of the article is to construct a model for estimating the quarterly gross value added (GVA) of the national economy (GDP) based on the results of business surveys (so-called confidence indicators) in industry, construction, commerce and services (incl. banking sector), and to set the forecast for four quarters ahead. The suitability of the applied approach is assessed using pairwise dependencies for individual sectors. In the case of both pairwise and multidimensional dependencies, the authors proceed from a linear dynamic model, which is a combination of ARIMA models (or SARIMA models) in conjunction with regression analysis, where the variables explained are time-shifted. The quality of the estimated models is proven to be very high. The analysis shows a significant link between the sector's gross value added and sectoral confidence indicators. Significant predictors of the GVA of the national economy and GDP show explanatory variables of confidence indicators in industry and construction, whereas indicators of confidence in trade and services were statistically insignificant. Timely knowledge of these indicators in conjunction with linear dynamic models allows better and faster predictions of quarterly GVA and GDP than with conventional time series models.

Researchers and analysts usually prefer to have long time series of gross domestic product as the most important indicator of the economy. However, gross national income presents indicator that covers not only what a country produce but it takes into account values produced by factors of productions owned by foreigners. From that point of view gross national income presents more interesting information than gross domestic product. This paper describes the recalculation of historical time series of gross domestic product in the Czech Republic into the standard of national accounts ESA 2010. It presents results for all three approaches to GDP, employment and gross national income. Although results of GDP and employment start in the year 1970, the lack of data allowed us prepared figures for gross national income from year 1984 onwards. Moreover, this paper shows some of the possibilities to the international comparison with European countries for the better description of the position of the Czech Republic in the European context.

Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) has been widely recognized as a standard model of hypothetical relationship between economic development and environment quality. The article presents results of an empirical research on EKC for the air pollution selected indicators in the Czech Republic in 1975-2012.To deal with the issue of different macroeconomic indicators calculated in socialist economy and after its transition to a market economy, EKC modeling was done with consolidated data on national economic performance. The results suggest, contrary to a widespread opinion, that changes in trends (turning points) for some pollutants on EKC can be found already in the 1980s. It also can be concluded, based on results received for the period after the year 2000 that validity of EKC might be in question for some pollutants. Following research on EKC for other pollutants and countries, as well as an application of other methodological approaches, could contribute both to better understanding of EKC model, including economic and social (pre)conditions of its validity, and its theoretical context.

Quarterly national accounts provide short-term macroeconomic information matched with those of the annual accounts. Their mission is to provide synthetic information as soon as possible after the end of the quarter. Due to the pressure, caused by Eurostat shortening deadlines on publishing this information, the task is more of creating a methodology to be used in the Czech Republic. Based on faster and more effi cient approaches, it should enable to perform and present estimates of aggregates of quarterly national accounts for the last quarter (and forecasts for the current quarter) at a satisfactory level of reliability. Basic considerations on the methods of quarterly estimation should therefore depend on indirect methods, ie., on mathematical and statistical models, that enable (given there is a system of short survey estimates) to accelerate and shorten publishing. The article off ers an original methodology of estimating quarterly national accounts values, based on time series analysis and presents the results on the data of national accounts of the Czech Republic.

Predictions of economic activity are sine qua non of economic policy. Nevertheless, predictions are characterised by the high level of inaccuracy; the main aim of the paper is to provide a potential theoretical explanation of frequent failures by focusing on the refl ection of real market proces in forecasting apparatus. It is argued that the role of intermediate products is underestimated in the considerations of future development of economic activity, even if these has presumably higher relevance to the level of economic activity in the future. Mutual relation between expenditures on consumption and production expense is discussed and verifi ed by use of econometric tools. It is found that even if there is long-term relation between consumption and production expenditures, from the short-term perspective, actual consumption does not have statistically signifi cant impact on future decisions of producers.

The article deals with the method of construction of symmetric time input-output tables under conditions of the Czech Republic. It is completely new approach to the description and evaluation of the Czech economy even though the effort to include the factor of time in this evaluation is abroad for quite long. In the Czech Republic are these efforts at the beginning. The method used to achieve the goal is based on the Supply and use tables expressed in time units, which is compiled using relevant data sources. The described results inform about the achieving of this goal. The method leads to the compilation of the symmetric time input-output tables. Some problems are discussed and have to be solved before the derivation of the input-output models from the time input-output tables.

The paper describes the development of household consumption expenditures from a longer perspective. Currently, there are available data for more than forty years and it means that lots of information about changes in structure and main tendencies can be studied. Since the emphasis is put on the comparable time series, it was necessary to prepare transformation of original data into national accounts. Historical figures on private consumption were published in line with the Material Product System that is not fully comparable with the System of National Accounts. Data on private consumption reflecting only material part of consumption had to be transformed into household consumption expenditures covering both expenditures for material and non-material products. The process of transformation of original data reflecting socialist statistical system is briefly described, as well as main differences. Key points of transformation are illustrated on selected years. Finally, original data are compared with reconstructed ones and differences are explained. The analysis provides useful information about main changes in consumption expenditures by CZ-COICOP. Finally, some often discussed issues like the relative increase of expenditures connected with housing, decrease of the share of foodstuff etc. can be proven now.

This paper deals with the topic of experimental computations and estimation of regional GDP components by expenditure approach in the NUTS 3 regions of the Czech Republic. As huge amount of data is necessary, this topic has not been successfully solved by official statistics yet. Just one expenditure component - gross fixed capital formation - is regionally published by the Czech Statistical Office, the others, such as final household consumption expenditures, government expenditures or net export balance, are estimated in this paper. Also the net savings of regions are experimentally computed. Different data sources needed to be used for estimations; apart from Czech Statistical Office and Institute for Regional Information data other sources as transportation statistics, health statistics etc. had to be employed. An important related issue is also the regional price level problem, whose implications are discussed in the paper as well. Finally regional differences in the structure of regional GDP are examined.

Paper deals with the assessment of the fiscal position and stabilization of government policy. First, the framework for assessment of the fiscal position and the sustainability of public finances is presented. It is justified the usage of specific data based on the ESA95 methodology, including consideration of possible alternatives. Subsequently, the government deficit is set into the framework of macroeconomic identities and expressed its impact on the current account balance and other aggregates. Sustainability of the government deficit is firstly derived from the primary balance and consequently from the overall balance. Even before it is discussed appropriate fiscal policy in the short and long term, including the role of fiscal rules, OECD methodology is presented for the calculation of structural and cyclical balance, including risks associated with their quantification.

The estimates of economic development in the countries of the socialist block were carried out in the framework of the so-called Material Product System (MPS). At that time the product was perceived more narrowly than today's gross domestic product (GDP). It included only the material goods and productive services (services that accompanying the circulation of goods). Non-productive services and services provided on non-market basis were not included in the estimates. The authors present their own methodology for data transformation based on MPS into (today's) System of National Accounts (SNA), on the basis of carrying out the reconstruction of the historical time series of the gross domestic product of the Czech Republic in the period between the years 1970 and 1989 in the current methodology. The results of this work will enable other users to perform analysis on significantly longer time series of gross domestic product, including the structure of its uses and resources. The authors primarily base the transformation of the original data on global product and national income (in the MPS methodology) contained in the balance of national income and symmetric input-output tables. Historical time series of GDP for the period has not been estimated for the Czech Republic yet.

Government systems of accounting are in the EU - as well as in other developed countries - based on the GFS (national) reporting systems and a cash reporting. The presented paper aims to describe main systems of reporting tax revenues, analyse problem areas within tax accrualisation and review international and Czech approaches and experiences. Based on the experiences from the Czech Republic's and international environment, it is pointed out at some disputable features of accrualisation from the perspective of the simplicity of reporting and its transparency. Following the initial overview, the paper deals with a description of various approaches of how to report tax revenues. The main concentration is placed on a purely accrual, time adjusted, cash approach. Next is presented a review of the praxis and results in the Czech Republic and abroad, with examples of various results of a tax quota calculation using four different methods.

The paper is focused on the disputation with Mojmir Hajek on the field of the measurement of the total factor productivity index. We point out the interpretation obstacles connected to this measurement and its results at a level of the whole economy as well as of its industries. We also refer to the sensitivity of the analysis on the methodology used and bring up the alternative computations based on the methodology recommended by ESA 95 standard. Comparing these alternative approaches, it is obvious that the analysis is sensitive both on the later data revisions and on the indicators of input as well. In this case, the differences on the average annual growth of the total factor productivity can reach almost four percentage points. We also point out the difficulty of the contribution analysis of growth while chain-linked data are used.