D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and UncertaintyReturn

This study aims to examine whether the price exuberances in the prices of four main precious metals stem from their status as safe havens against economic uncertainty (proxied by the US EPU and Chinese CEPU indices). The findings reveal that the effects of both uncertainty measures on gold and silver prices, notably more pronounced in the case of the CEPU, persist for longer, particularly during the surge of uncertainty triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. This finding highlights the safe-haven status of these metals, with a notable dominance of the CEPU in influencing the price dynamics of the gold and silver markets. However, as the observed price exuberances in gold and silver more closely align with periods of supply and demand imbalances, it is less likely that these movements are driven solely by investors seeking safe havens during times of uncertainty. Furthermore, the effect of the EPU on platinum and palladium prices is particularly pronounced during economic turmoil, whereas the effect of the CEPU is confined to the periods that coincide with price exuberances in these metals. In sum, this paper argues that the safe-haven status of individual precious metals is dynamic, and that price exuberances do not consistently originate from their safe-haven status.

The aim of the article is to explore the doctor - patient relationship using the information asymmetry framework and principal-agent theory. From the perspective of economic exchange, this relationship is relatively specific, as an uneven rank and position of the agents involved play an important role here. It is argued that this unevenness arises from several different factors, such as education and qualification, work experience, path dependence, and the nature of goods and services provided. The relationship specificity is then discussed from a theoretical point of view while its most important elements are highlighted and put into a wider context. Further, market approach in healthcare system and healthcare services is partially debated and a simple model analyzing he "double-standard treatment is developed. Subsequently, this type of treatment is analyzed with the aid of vertical differentiation approach. Based on economic rationale, the authors claim that "medical knowledge/information obligation should play a crucial role in all healthcare services. This type of instrument is to be applicable for both parties in the doctor - patient relationship, as it may help overcome the inherently present information asymmetry by rendering the healthcare services provision more transparent.

The authors of the article point out that the theory of economics has failed to yield a solid theoretical background in such critical situations as the period of the current fi nancial and economic crisis and the transformation period of post-communist economies. Mainly present crisis opens the question of unsatisfactory status of economic science. While classical liberal or Keynesian concepts are failing, theorists cannot look to mathematical modelling for help. It seems that traditional concepts are malfunctioning. Financial market is particularly predisposed for this process. The use of mathematical model is overvalued. The article calls attention on asymmetry of information problem and possible influence and adequacy of regulatory attitudes on return to equilibrium level, particularly in EU. The challenge for today's theoretical economists is to find a new concept for today's global era.

The dramatically growing disproportion between the value of corporate assets and market valuation has resulted in a well-researched schism between strategic management and financial theory. Options theory provides a potent tool to resolve this issue. We propose a model which is consistent with both the Resource- and Contractual-Based Theories of the Firm and which demonstrates that corporate strategy can be perceived as a portfolio of embedded and real options. We further argue that embedded options typically serve as hedging instruments for real options which enhances their value and should be a major consideration when assessing the structure and form of contracts. Special emphasis is granted to human capital and the contractual arrangements through which firms purchase its product. Human capital is the key resource for the processes of real-options discovery and strategy-setting, both of which constitute the essential part of a modern firm's value.

This paper analyzes the tax penalty on volatile personal income under progressive tax rates. The phenomenon may have an effect on long-term entrepreneurial decisions as well as risky occupational choice. An options-based model is used to estimate the expected effective rate due from tax-payers at different income levels and volatilities under the current Czech legislation. A comparison is made to the system which has been in place until 2005, as well as to the Slovak flat-rate schedule. The model shows that volatile incomes incur a substantial penalty of up to 2 percentage points on the effective rate peaking just below the official income statistics mean. The effect is more pronounced than under the former parameters of the tax code. A severe impact on below-average earners due to the mandatory minimum tax-base regulation has been demonstrated. On the other hand, the Slovak flat tax with a single marginal rate bears virtually no sensitivity to income volatility, with the slight exception of very low incomes.

Transitivity and dominance are key concepts built deep into the fundaments of most economic models of decision-making. One of the arguments in favour of using the two concepts is that they are normative, i.e., symptomatic of perfect, rational decision-making. This paper describes several specific axioms stemming from these concepts and appearing in axiomatic models of decision-making, gives possible arguments speaking for or against the normativeness of a given concept and adds examples of empirically observed violations of the concept by human decision-making. In the conclusion, it offers an assessment of whether the use of transitivity and dominance in economic models of decision-making is justified or not.

This paper summarizes the major events in the recent history of modelling human decisions under risk. After presenting the basics of expected utility theory, the key pieces of evidence are described which showed that under certain circumstances, this theory is not descriptively valid. The most promising alternative, cumulative prospect theory, is then presented in some detail, including a brief discussion of how it avoids violations of stochastic dominance and how it explains the above evidence. It is pointed out that there are other empirical observations which cannot be explained by cumulative prospect theory either, so that a model which would explain all evidence on decisions under risk is still to be found.

This article is dealed about the requirements on new architecture of financial markets, namely for banking and insurance market. The principles of Basel II and Solvency II are discussed. The second part of article concerned with quality changes in comercial insurable risk and financial decesion of enormous natural catastrophes in last decade. The traditional way - insurance, reinsurance and public finance is completed by insurance derivates (CAT bondes) in present. This solution takes partial place by financing hurricanes Katrina and Rita claims.

Importance of risk and uncertainty in present period of dynamic changes grows. The article deals with risk and uncertainty in strategic decision making. First the concepts of risk and uncertainty and possibilities of their measurement are discussed. Further shortcomings of strategic decision making from the point of view risk integration are described. The emphasis is on discussion of decision making methods under risk and uncertainty (including decision tables, scenarios, Monte Carlo simulation, real options, decision trees, multicriteria utility function under risk, theory of games and methods of portfolio development) as supporting tools for strategic decision making. In the last part of the article some recommendations for integration of risk and uncertainty in strategic decision making based on scenario approach are suggested.

This article summarises the development of risk management concepts and their applications in enterprise management. Until the late 1970s the risk management in the firms had not exceeded the boundaries of the insurance of assumed risk occasions. Later, the application of risk management in organizations was connected with functioning of the enterprise in risk areas. At the time being, risk management has been gaining the importance in the interests of reaching efficiency in all organizations. Nowadays, we observe these new trends in the development of: increase of information resulting from quantitative as well as qualitative risk evaluations by using information technologies and integration of risk management into strategic management. However, this has to be in accordance with the corporate culture that is based on responsibility of risk managers.

The St Petersburg paradox could be used as an extreme demonstration of the utility function cardinalisation in case of stochastic utility. In this article we reassume the von Neumann and Mongernstern explanation to this paradox based on the risk aversion expressed by the strict concavity of the expected utility function. We suggest the utility function derived from the Pareto distribution of the probability of downfall of the subject in danger. Our cardinal utility function is based on the economically reasonable economic assumption. In contrast to the other often used cardinal utility functions it does not need the specification of its parameters ad hoc. Other advantage of our utility function is its explanation of the difference in decision making of different "players" in the St Petersburg casino, based on their wealth (including the explanation of the situational risk seeking behaviour of players under the boundary of survival).