C63 - Computational Techniques; Simulation ModelingReturn

Slovak Republic as well as many other OECD countries has faced significant increase of health expenditures in last decades. Sustainability of health care public component is therefore and mainly on the ground of ageing of population a political and scientific challenge for many countries. Paper pursues ex ante sustainability of health care system in Slovak Republic. By using modified models of International Labour Organization and European Commission and exogenous macroeconomic and population expectations we forecasts revenues, expenditures and also sustainability of the health care policy scenarios until year 2030. We identified possible changes in the income and expenditures policies for the Slovak health system, which can lead to improve balance of whole system by assumed population and macroeconomic scenarios.

The paper deals with yield curve construction methods using coupon bonds in Czech bond market. Generally, there are more possibilities how to approach this problem: bootstraping, splines, parametric functions. Due to the lack of tradable public bonds and due to the fact that existing bonds do not pay coupons at the same date of the year, traditional bootstraping method could not be applied under Czech market conditions. It seemed appropriate to use parametrical solutions to the yield curve issue and minimise the sum of squares of differences between market and theoretical prices. There were presented three function types which arrived to similar results in the paper. The authors also used Svensson parametric function to demonstrate the possible use of parametric yield curve construction. It was shown that, after duration adjustment, it can indicate shift in market expectations regarding future short term interest rate moves, and thus regarding future monetary policy, pretty well.