C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and SelectionReturn

Environmental Improvement Possibilities for Local Governments: Example of Reducing PM10 Concentration in Air The municipality can significantly improve the air in its territory by regular cleaning of its street network. The aim of this study is therefore to demonstrate the positive effect of machine cleaning of roads on the reduction of PM10 dust particles in the air. These particles are the result of emissions from transport and more than 83% of them come from the so-called resuspension (the secondary whirling of particles that lie on the road). Cleanliness and care of public spaces, in which road cleaning may be included, belongs to the so-called compulsory tasks of self-governments in some legal regulations, e.g., Bavarian, Polish, Slovak and Serbian, and as this study shows, its positive effect is measurable, which is not common among activities of local municipalities. Therefore, it may be stated that the funds invested by local governments in mechanical road cleaning have a significant positive effect on reduction of PM10 particles in the air and thus on the health of their citizens. The study is based on measurements performed in the capital city Prague from 2013 to 2019 and uses monthly data from 4 measuring stations, for which it was also possible to obtain adequate meteorological data of variables that affect the occurrence of PM10 particles in the air. The results of the study can be used to properly set up the machine cleaning system so that its effect is as high as possible. Stata econometric software was used for the data analysis. The study builds on similar analyses carried out in recent years in Europe, the Arabian peninsula and Asia.

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of the economic crisis which commenced in 2008 on fertility levels across the EU, i.e., whether the onset of the crisis influenced the fertility trends and whether the various countries differed in terms of their response to the crisis. The relationship between the two economic indicators GDP per capita and unemployment rate and the total fertility rate as the dependent variable was explored employing panel regression models. Simultaneously, an investigation was conducted into which indicator better fits the modelling of the influence of macro-economic conditions of individual countries on the fertility levels. Data on 28 EU member states from the period 2001 to 2013 were included in the analysis. The results revealed that the onset of the economic crisis exerted a fundamental effect on fertility. In addition, it was found that the two economic indicators were interchangeable in terms of the effects exerted. In conclusion, it was determined that the findings support the supposition that fertility tends to be pro-cyclical in character.

Measuring and managing of financial risks is an essential part of the management of financial institutions. The appropriate risk management should lead to an efficient allocation of available funds. Approaches based on Value at Risk measure have been used as a means for measuring market risk since the late 20th century, although regulators newly suggest to apply more complex method of Expected Shortfall. While evaluating models for market risk estimation based on Value at Risk is relatively simple and involves so-called backtesting procedure, in the case of Expected Shortfall we cannot apply similar procedure. In this article we therefore focus on an alternative method for comprehensive evaluation of VaR models at various significance levels by means of data envelopment analysis (DEA). This approach should lead to the adoption of the model which is also suitable in terms of the Expected Shortfall criterion. Based on the illustrative results from the US stock market we conclude that NIG model and historical simulation should be preferred to normal distribution and GARCH model. We can also recommend to estimate the parameters from the period slightly shorter than two years.

This article deals with multistate demography approach applied on the labour market. The multistate demography - methodology and history - are briefly described. The application of this method is presented using transitions between economically active and inactive states on the labour market and among economically inactive, employed and unemployed states. Estimation based on the Labour Force Sample Survey (LFSS) for the Czech Republic shows that during the life course (15-64 years of age) the expected length of stay for each state changes depending on the original state and age. Main differences were found for younger (25-40 years) and older (55+ years) persons.

We analyze effect of intraday information flow in three emerging EU stock markets-the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. We use five-minute intraday data on stock market index returns and 15 types of EU and U.S. macroeconomic announcements during 2004-2007. We measure each announcement as its difference from market expectation. Mean and variance equations are jointly estimated. We bring evidence of strong spillovers from matured stock markets as well as effects of the macroeconomic news originating thereby. We find varying effects of the real economy news. Information on current account and prices has strong effect across all markets. We find limited evidence of the economic climate news and no evidence of the monetary announcements. Volatility of the returns is accounted for at the beginning and end of the trading session and it declines dramatically during the rest of the day. The three emerging markets react to information flow in a similar manner as matured markets.

The question of public finance stability and the economic stability are widely discussed topics, not only in transitive and emerging economies, but also in developed countries. The aim of this paper is to find out and measure connections between the fiscal policy development and external economic stability. This research is based on a quantification of the budget deficit and public debt impact onto exchange rate in chosen countries that have recently experienced some kind of financial crisis. External competitiveness is also assessed by the fiscal policy impact onto current account balance. It is necessary to point out that monetary variables are going to be probably more important but the fiscal sector cannot be omitted. Especially nowadays when there is an integration process in EMU going on, where the fiscal policy is going to play important role in the economic stability.