C35 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; ProportionsReturn

The importance of working poverty increased in 2003, owing to the European strategy in which one of the goals was to reduce the number of working people in poverty in the EU. Despite its seriousness, experts have not achieved a uniform theoretical model or definition. The situation is the same for methodology and empirics, which are determined by availability of statistical data. For these reasons, knowledge of working poverty is in its infancy. Therefore, we set a goal to take into account findings from past research into working poverty in the world, focusing primarily on the situation in Slovakia. Based on EU SILC 2016 data, we created our own model of variables in which we assumed that they determine the genesis and manifestations of working poverty in its particular structural components and we measured their intensity using the logistic regression and the decision tree model.

The research database consists of the OECD countries except Iceland, Latvia and Turkey, which were excluded because of insufficient data. The primary objective of the study is to group the countries according to their average wage, GDP per capita, minimum wage and unemployment rate. Another objective, of no less importance, is to determine which of the three remaining above variables significantly affect the average wage, while defining the type and strength of this relationship. Yet another important goal is to develop forecasts of the wage level and GDP per capita for each OECD country by 2020. In terms of clustering OECD countries by the four variables, the Czech Republic always ranks alongside Chile and three post-communist countries, Estonia, Hungary and Poland. GDP per capita is the only explanatory variable significantly affecting the average wage. The dependence of these two variables is represented by a second-order polynomial (concave parabola), the selected regression parabola explaining approximately 88 percent of the variability in the observed levels of the average annual wage. The conversion of the average wage, GDP per capita and minimum wage to purchasing power parity allows consideration of different price levels and thus comparison of purchasing power parity of the population in different countries.

The fundamental premise for the regular performance of economic policy, fulfilment of the revenues of the state budget and thus creating optimal conditions for efficient fiscal policy realization, is to minimize state receivables after maturity, as the theoretical planning of the revenue side of the state budget is irrelevant considering that tax payers and other entities fail to fulfil their liabilities towards the state, more precisely state budget, and conversely the state is not able to provide the approved income in the state budget. The objective of this paper is to: analyse the development of state receivables in years 2001-2014; identify the causes of the state receivables origin; test econometrically the dependence of formation of the state receivables after maturity on the economic cycle, the tax rate change and entry of the Czech Republic to the European Union; evaluate the results of the long-term research of implementation of an experimental model, during which the possibility of reaching incomparably higher efficiency was verified and proven in the management process of state receivables recovery; highlight this important negative determinant of the state fiscal policy. With regard to aforesaid, this text is structured in the following way. First, the author took into consideration the theories which are connected with surveyed matters, following by the characteristic and causes of state receivables development for the period of 1991 to 2014. The economic testing of dependence comes after. Next chapter characterizes the development of two experimental models for management process of recovery of state receivables after maturity, research results included. The last chapter provides all the research results, evaluates the economic policy significance of this destructive factor of fiscal policy and suggests some solutions.