C2 - Single Equation Models; Single VariablesReturn

This paper tests the usability of the Taylor rule under the conditions of the Czech economy using a single-equation error correction model in the period from 2000 to the second quarter of 2019 and finds key variables for the CNB's monetary policy setting. Other important monetary policy rules and their effect on the optimal monetary policy setting are also discussed. The starting point of the empirical part is a summary of the current monetary policy of the CNB and an analysis of its decision model. Since 2008, the new DSGE model g3 replaced the previous QPM model. At the end of the theoretical part, foreign experience and various approaches to the estimation of the Taylor rule are summarized. The CNB's two-week repo rate is best described by the size of the output gap in the domestic economy, the ECB's base refinancing rate, the change in the price level measured by the consumer price index and the previous value of the repo rate. The paper also analyses the relationship between the repo rate and the ECB's basic refinancing rates, confirming the historically high dependence of domestic monetary policy on the ECB's actions.

This article, based on an empirical analysis, discusses factors affecting property prices and tries to identify periods of property price overvaluation in the Czech Republic. To achieve this, the article uses both relatively simple approach using ratios related to the house prices (e.g. price-to-rent or price-to-income indicators) as well as international comparison and more advanced econometrical approach. Within this econometrical approach we apply both time series analysis for the Czech Republic as a whole and panel regression for the Czech regions. This analysis identifies overvalued property prices in 2002-2003 and 2007-2008. In 2007-2008, however, the rise in property prices was largely explainable by fundamentals, meaning that the price overvaluation in this period was considerably smaller than that in the first one. From the regional perspective, there is a higher degree of overvaluation in regions with higher property prices. The exception is Prague, which seems to be a "specific" region - partly due to the properties of the estimation technique.

The paper provides an exploratory analysis of regional dynamics among 264 NUTS2 EU-27 regions over the period 1992-2006. Seven different regional indicators are analyzed including wages, household expenditures, retail sales, investments, productivity, GDP, and GDP adjusted for international purchasing power differences. Several aspects of regional dynamics are studied such as convergence, polarization, role of international component, overall mobility, and individual mobility of Czech regions. Different methods are employed including some traditional techniques such as Gini coefficient, Theil decomposition, or kernel density estimates but also more innovative measures based on the pair-wise comparisons of regions. The results suggest strong regional convergence in relative ratios hand in hand with increasing absolute gaps among European regions. The analysis also indicates a significant bipolarity in the investigated distributions and a major role of international component in the process of European regional development. From the Czech regions, only Praha and Střední Čechy recorded some upward mobility in the European regional rank distributions, while the relative positions of all other units deteriorated.