Politická ekonomie X:X | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1505

Impact of geopolitical risk and economic globalization on Turkey's environmental sustainability using the novel quantile-on-quantile KRLS method

Ashar Awan, Atif Jahanger ORCID..., Mohammad Emran Hossain, Muhammad Saeed Meo, Nora Yusma bte Mohamed Yusoff
Ashar Awan Kashmir Institute of Economics, University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Muzaffarabad, Pakistan
Atif Jahanger (corresponding author), International Business School, Hainan University, Haikou, China
Mohammad Emran Hossain, Department of Agricultural Sciences, Texas State University, San Marcos, Texas, USA; Applied Science Research Center, Applied Science Private University, Amman, Jordan; Jadara Research Center, Jadara University, Irbid, Jordan
Muhammad Saeed Meo , Sunway Business School, Sunway University Malaysia, Subang Jaya, Malaysia; University of Economics and Human Sciences, Warsaw, Poland; Advanced Research Centre, European University of Lefke, Lefke, Northern Cyprus, Turkey.
Nora Yusma bte Mohamed Yusoff, UNITEN Business School, Institute of Energy Policy and Research, Universiti Tenaga Nasional Malaysia, Kajang, Malaysia

This study investigates the impact of economic globalization, geopolitical risk, and natural resources on carbon emissions (CO2) in Turkey, while controlling for economic development and renewable energy. The study used annual data from 1970 to 2019 using a quantile-on-quantile-based regularized least squares (QQKRLS) approach. The findings of the study confirm a weak positive association between economic globalization and CO2 emissions at low and high quantiles, while this association becomes strong at 0.40 to 0.65 quantiles of both variables. The study also confirms an overall positive association between geopolitical risk and CO2 emissions; however, this correlation becomes stronger at 0.40 to 0.80 quantiles for both variables. In addition, the study also finds overall an inverse relationship between natural resource rents and CO2 emissions, except for extremely low quantiles of both variables, the correlation becomes positive. To strengthen the reliability of our results , the study utilized a non-parametric bivariate \\\"Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (QQR)\\\" method for robustness check. Based on the findings of the study, it is recommended that policymakers encourage green trade practices and promote climate change action initiatives by starting joint clean projects to make this world clean for current and future generations.

Keywords: Geopolitical risk, economic globalization, quantile-on-quantile kernel-based regularized least squares, natural resources, green energy

Received: September 28, 2024; Revised: March 9, 2025; Accepted: April 5, 2025; Prepublished online: November 12, 2025 

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