Politická ekonomie X:X | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1557

Inflation Targeting versus Price-Level Targeting: Dynamic and Welfare Trade-Offs in a DSGE Model

Jan Ježek
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Prague University of Economics and Business, Czech Republic

This paper provides a transparent comparison of inflation targeting and price-level targeting within a standard New Keynesian DSGE framework. Using a calibrated model with nominal rigidities in prices and wages, the analysis examines the dynamic and welfare implications of strict and flexible variants of both policy regimes. Impulse response analysis reveals important asymmetries across shocks: price-level targeting facilitates adjustment following demand-side disturbances, while inflation targeting handles the output-inflation trade-off more effectively in the presence of cost-push shocks. Welfare comparisons indicate that price-level targeting yields slightly higher unconditional welfare on average, although differences across regimes are economically negligible. Overall, the results should be interpreted as consolidating existing DSGE evidence and providing a benchmark framework for understanding the conditions under which alternative monetary policy regimes perform differently.

Keywords: Inflation targeting; price-level targeting, DSGE models, monetary policy rules, welfare analysis

Received: October 20, 2025; Revised: February 28, 2026; Accepted: March 16, 2026; Prepublished online: October 15, 2026 

Download citation

References

  1. Ambler, S. (2007). Price-level targeting and stabilisation policy: A review. Bank of Canada Review, Autumn 2009, 19-29. https://doi.org/10.34989/sdp-2007-11 Go to original source...
  2. Amano, R., and Ambler, S. (2014). Inflation Targeting, Price-Level Targeting and the Zero Lower Bound. C.D. Howe Institute Commentary No. 400. https://www.steveambler.uqam.ca/papers/lowerbound.2014.pdf
  3. Bailliu, J., Meh, C., & Zhang, Y. (2012). Macroprudential rules and monetary policy when financial frictions matter. Bank of Canada Working Paper No. 2012-6. https://www.oar-rao.bank-banque-canada.ca/record/1588/files/wp2012-06.pdf
  4. Beaudry, P., Carter, T. J., & Lahiri, A. (2022). Looking Through Supply Shocks versus Controlling Inflation Expectations: Understanding the Central Bank Dilemma. Staff Working Papers 22-41, Bank of Canada. Go to original source...
  5. Benchimol, J., & Bounader, L. (2021). Optimal monetary policy under bounded rationality. Dynare Working Papers No. 67. https://www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dynarewp067.pdf Go to original source...
  6. Bernanke, B. S., & Carey, K. (1996). Nominal Wage Stickiness and Aggregate Supply in the Great Depression. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(3), pages 853-883. Go to original source...
  7. Berg, C., Jonung, L., (1999). Pioneering price level targeting: The Swedish experience 1931-1937. Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 43, Issue 3, 1999, Pages 525-551, ISSN 0304-3932. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(99)00004-5 Go to original source...
  8. Boehm, J., Filáček, J., Kubicová, I., and Zamazalová, R. (2012). Price-level targeting-a real alternative to inflation targeting? Finance a Úvěr - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 62:2-26.
  9. Capistrán, C., & Ramos-Francia, M. (2010). Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42(1), 113-134. http://www.jstor.org/stable/20685090 Go to original source...
  10. Cateau, G. (2017). Price-level versus inflation targeting under model uncertainty. The Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue Canadienne d'Economique, 50(2), 522-540. http://www.jstor.org/stable/45172439 Go to original source...
  11. Coletti, D. and Lalonde, R. (2007). Inflation Targeting, Price-Level Targeting, and Fluctuations in Canada's Terms of Trade. Bank of Canada Review, vol. 2007(Winter), pages 37-45.
  12. Davig, T., Foerster, A., (2023) Communicating Monetary Policy Rules. European Economic Review, Volume 151, 2023, 104290, ISSN 0014-2921, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104290 Go to original source...
  13. Eggertsson, G. B., Juelsrud, R. E., Summers, L. H., & Wold, E. G. (2019). Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel. NBER Working Paper 25416. https://doi.org/10.3386/w25416 Go to original source...
  14. Gürkaynak, R., Levin, A. and Swanson, E., (2010). Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden. Journal of the European EconomicAssociation, 8, issue 6, p. 1208-1242. Go to original source...
  15. Hall, R. E., & Mankiw, N. G. (1994). Nominal income targeting. In: Mankiw, N. G. Monetary Policy, pp. 71-94). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Go to original source...
  16. Hammond, G. (2012). State of the art of inflation targeting. Bank of England Handbook No. 29.
  17. Hooker, M. A. (2002). Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 34(2), 540-561. Go to original source...
  18. Ichiue, H. & Nishiguchi, S. (2013). Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending at the Zero Bound: Micro Evidence. Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-11. https://ideas.repec.org/p/boj/bojwps/13-e-11.html
  19. Kahn, G. A. (2009). Beyond inflation targeting: should central banks target the price level? Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, 94(2), 35-64.
  20. Kamenik, O., Kiem, H., Klyuev, V., & Laxton, D. (2013). Why Is Canada's Price Level So Predictable? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(1), 71-85. http://www.jstor.org/stable/23320077 Go to original source...
  21. Mishkin, F. S. (1998). International experiences with different monetary policy regimes. Journal of Monetary Economics, 43(3), 579-605. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(99)00006-9 Go to original source...
  22. Mishkin, F. S., & Schmidt-Hebbel, K. (2007). Does inflation targeting make a difference? NBER Working Paper No. 12876. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w12876/w12876.pdf Go to original source...
  23. OECD. (2023). Inflation targeting country data. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org
  24. Ruge-Murcia, F. (2014). Do Inflation-Targeting Central Banks Implicitly Target the Price Level? International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 301-326.
  25. Sims, E. R. (2017a). Lecture notes: A New Keynesian Model with Both Price and Wage Stickiness. Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame. Available at: https://sites.nd.edu/esims/files/2023/05/wage_stickiness_2017.pdf
  26. Sims, E. R. (2017b). Lecture notes: A New Keynesian Model with Price Stickiness. Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame. Available at: https://sites.nd.edu/esims/files/2023/05/new_keynesian_2017.pdf
  27. Sims, E. (2017c). Lecture notes: Extensions of Basic RBC Framework. Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame. Available at: https://sites.nd.edu/esims/files/2023/05/rbc_extensions_sp17.pdf
  28. Sims, E. R. (2020). Lecture notes: New Keynesian Model with Price and Wage Stickiness. Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame. Available at: https://sites.nd.edu/esims/files/2023/05/dnk_price_wage.pdf
  29. Sims, E. and Wu, J. C. (2021). Evaluating Central Banks' tool kit: Past, present, and future. Journal of Monetary Economics, 118(C):135-160. Go to original source...
  30. Smets, F., Wouters, R. (2007). Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: A Bayesian DSGE approach. American Economic Review, 97(3), 586-606. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1687574 Go to original source...
  31. Straumann, T., Woitek U. (2009) A pioneer of a new monetary policy? Sweden's price-level targeting of the 1930s revisited. European Review of Economic History, Volume 13, Issue 2,p. 251-282. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1361491609002494 Go to original source...
  32. Svensson, L. E. O. (1999). Price-Level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 31(3), 277-295. https://doi.org/10.2307/2601112 Go to original source...
  33. Svensson, L. E. O. (2000) How Should Monetary Policy be Conducted in an Era of Price Stability? NBER Working Paper No. 7516. https://doi.org/10.3386/w7516 Go to original source...
  34. Svensson, L. E. O. (2020). Monetary Policy Strategies for the Federal Reserve. International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 133-193. Go to original source...
  35. Taylor, J. B. (1996). How should monetary policy respond to shocks while maintaining long-run price stability? Conceptual issues. Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole. Kansas City: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 181-195.
  36. Vestin, D. (2006). Price-level versus inflation targeting. Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 53(7), pages 1361-1376, ISSN 0304-3932. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.07.015 Go to original source...
  37. Wagner, J., Schlanger, T., & Zhang, Y. (2022). A Horse Race of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes Under Bounded Rationality. Bank of Canada Discussion Papers 2022-4. Go to original source...

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY NC ND 4.0), which permits non-comercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.