Politická ekonomie 2025, 73(4):615-656 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1461

Analysis of Impact of Green New Deal on Development of Green Economy

Mengyao Guo ORCID..., Yiniu Cui ORCID..., Jianhong Cao ORCID..., Cheng Zhong ORCID...
Mengyao Guo, School of Economics, Yunnan University, Kunming, China
Yiniu Cui (corresponding author), School of Economics, Yunnan University, Kunming, China
Jianhong Cao, Yuquan Institute, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Cheng Zhong, School of Business, Pingxiang University, Pingxiang, China

Currently, nations worldwide are actively promoting various environmental movements to address the ecological crisis. Among these, the most prominent is the Green New Deal (GND). However, during the development of the GND, some scholars have identified that its advancement may lead to more severe environmental problems. Therefore, this study constructs indicators for green economic development and the GND. Utilizing an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model and a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) and based on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning 2008 to 2021, it specifically analyzes the impact of the GND on green economic development. The study further examines the spatial effects and externality impacts of the GND. Additionally, green finance is selected as a mediating variable to further explore the relationship between the GND, green finance and green economic development, analyzing the mediating role that green finance plays between them.

Keywords: Green New Deal, development of green economy, green finance, spatial Durbin model, mediator effect model
JEL classification: H23, O44, Q28, Q58

Received: January 17, 2024; Revised: August 13, 2024; Accepted: September 2, 2024; Prepublished online: August 7, 2025; Published: August 27, 2025  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago Chicago Notes IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Guo, M., Cui, Y., Cao, J., & Zhong, C. (2025). Analysis of Impact of Green New Deal on Development of Green Economy. Politická ekonomie73(4), 615-656. doi: 10.18267/j.polek.1461
Download citation

References

  1. Ajl, M. (2021). A People's Green New Deal: Obstacles and Prospects. Agrarian South: Journal of Political Economy, 10(2), 371-390. https://doi.org/10.1177/22779760211030864 Go to original source...
  2. Bloomfield, J., Steward, F. (2020). The politics of the green new deal. The Political Quarterly, 91(4), 770-779. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.12917 Go to original source...
  3. Buller, A. (2020). Where Next for the Green New Deal? Renewal, 28(1), 26-36. Go to original source...
  4. Brown, D., Brisbois, M. C., Lacey-Barnacle, M., et al. (2023). The Green New Deal: historical insights and local prospects in the United Kingdom (UK). Ecological Economics, 205, 107696. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107696 Go to original source...
  5. CFLI (2020). Financing the Low-Carbon Future: A Private-Sector View on Mobilizing Climate Finance. New York: Bloomberg, Climate Finance Leadership Initiative.
  6. Chomsky, N., Pollin, R. (2020). Climate crisis and the global green new deal: The political economy of saving the planet. London: Verso Books. ISBN 978-1788739856.
  7. Cui, Y., Zhong, C., Cao, J., et al. (2023). Can green finance effectively mitigate PM2.5 pollution? What role will green technological innovation play? Energy & Environment. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X231204030 Go to original source...
  8. Cui, Y., Wang, G., Irfan, M., et al. (2022). The effect of green finance and unemployment rate on carbon emissions in China. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10, 887341. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.887341 Go to original source...
  9. Cui, Y., Aziz, G., Sarwar, S., et al. (2023). Reinvestigate the significance of STRIPAT and extended STRIPAT: An inclusion of renewable energy and trade for gulf council countries. Energy & Environment, 36(2), 592-615. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X231181671 Go to original source...
  10. Fairbrother, M., Arrhenius, G., Bykvist, K., et al. (2021). Governing for future generations: how political trust shapes attitudes towards climate and debt policies. Frontiers in Political Science, 3, 656053. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpos.2021.656053 Go to original source...
  11. Fang, Y., Shao, Z. (2022). How does green finance affect cleaner industrial production and end-of-pipe treatment performance? Evidence from China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research International 30(12), 33485-33503. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11356-022-24513-4 Go to original source...
  12. Finnegan, J. J. (2022). Institutions, climate change, and the foundations of long-term policymaking. Comparative Political Studies, 55(7), 1198-1235. https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140211047416 Go to original source...
  13. Furnaro, A., Kay, K. (2022). Labor resistance and municipal power: Scalar mismatch in the Los Angeles Green New Deal. Political Geography, 98, 102684. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.POLGEO.2022.102684 Go to original source...
  14. Green, F., Healy, N. (2022). How inequality fuels climate change: The climate case for a Green New Deal. One Earth, 5(6), 635-649. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.05.005 Go to original source...
  15. Green New Deal Group (2008). A Green New Deal: Joined-up policies to solve the triple crunch of the credit crisis, climate change and high oil prices. London: New Economics Foundation.
  16. Hailemariam, A., Dzhumashev, R., Shahbaz, M. (2020). Carbon emissions, income inequality and economic development. Empirical Economics, 59, 1139-1159. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-019-01664-x Go to original source...
  17. Kadri, A. (2021). China's path to development: Against neoliberalism. Singapore: Springer. ISBN 978-981-15-9551-6. Go to original source...
  18. Karabacak, S. (2022). Noam Chomsky and Robert Pollin, with C. J. Polychroniou: Climate Crisis and Global Green New Deal: The Political Economy of Saving the Planet. Journal of Economic Issues, 56(2), 669-672. https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.2022.2067422 Go to original source...
  19. Kartal, M. T., Pata, U. K. (2023). Impacts of renewable energy, trade globalization, and technological innovation on environmental development in China: Evidence from various environmental indicators and novel quantile methods. Environmental Development, 48, 100923. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2023.100923 Go to original source...
  20. Kartha, S., Kemp-Benedict, E., Ghosh, E., et al. (2020). The Carbon Inequality Era: An Assessment of the Global Distribution of Consumption Emissions Among Individuals from 1990 to 2015 and beyond. Oxford: Oxfam. ISBN 978-1-78748-649-2. Go to original source...
  21. Kelton, S., 2020. The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and how to Build a Better Economy. London: Hachette. ISBN 9781529352542.
  22. Kim, S., Lee, M., Yu, I., et al. (2022). Key Initiatives for Digital Transformation, Green New Deal and Recovery after COVID-19 within the Construction Industry in Korea. Sustainability, 14(14). https://doi.org/10.3390/SU14148726 Go to original source...
  23. Levidow, L. (2022). Green New Deals: What Shapes Green and Deal? Capitalism Nature Socialism, 33(3), 76-97. https://doi.org/10.1080/10455752.2022.2062675 Go to original source...
  24. Liu, H., Pata, U. K., Zafar, M. W., Kartal, M. T., Karlilar, S., Caglar, A. E. (2023). Do oil and natural gas prices affect carbon efficiency? Daily evidence from China by wavelet transform-based approaches. Resources Policy, 85, 104039. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104039 Go to original source...
  25. Ma, X. (2023). Environmental regulation and public environmental concerns in China: A new insight from the difference in difference approach. Green and Low-Carbon Economy, 1(2), 60-67. https://doi.org/10.47852/bonviewGLCE3202868 Go to original source...
  26. Mastini, R., Kallis, G., Hickel, J. (2021). A green new deal without growth? Ecological Economics, 179, 106832. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106832 Go to original source...
  27. Mazzucato, M. (2022). Financing the green new deal. Nature Sustainability, 5(2), 93-94. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00828-x Go to original source...
  28. McRobbie, A. (1990). New Times: The Changing Face of Politics in the 1990s. Feminist Review, 36, 127-131. https://doi.org/10.1057/fr.1990.54 Go to original source...
  29. Mildenberger, M. (2020). Carbon Captured: How Business and Labor Control Climate Politics. Cambridge: The MIT Press. ISBN 9780262357272. Go to original source...
  30. Muller, T. (2020). Climate Justice: Global Resistance to Fossil-Fueled Capitalism. In: Treu, N., Schmelzer, M., Burkhart, C. Degrowth in movement(s): Exploring pathways for transformation. New Alresford: John Hunt Publishing. ISBN 9781789041866.
  31. Nersisyan, Y., Wray, L. R. (2021). Can We Afford the Green New Deal? Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 44(1), 68-88. https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2020.1835499 Go to original source...
  32. Nielsen, K. S., Nicholas, K. A., Creutzig, F., et al. (2021). The role of high-socioeconomic-status people in locking in or rapidly reducing energy-driven greenhouse gas emissions. Nature Energy, 6, 1011-1016. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00900-y Go to original source...
  33. Oswald, Y., Millward-Hopkins, J. (2021). 'Fair' inequality, consumption and climate mitigation. Environmental Research Letters, 16, 034007. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe14f Go to original source...
  34. Pata, U. K., Isik, C. (2021). Determinants of the load capacity factor in China: a novel dynamic ARDL approach for ecological footprint accounting. Resources Policy, 74, 102313. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102313 Go to original source...
  35. Pata, U. K., Caglar, A. E. (2021). Investigating the EKC hypothesis with renewable energy consumption, human capital, globalization and trade openness for China: evidence from augmented ARDL approach with a structural break. Energy, 216, 119220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119220 Go to original source...
  36. Pata, U. K., Erdogan, S., Ozkan, O. (2023). Is reducing fossil fuel intensity important for environmental management and ensuring ecological efficiency in China? Journal of Environmental Management, 329, 117080. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.117080 Go to original source...
  37. Pata, U. K., Olasehinde-Williams, G., Ozkan, O. (2023). Carbon efficiency in China: Should we be concerned about the shadow economy and urbanization? Geological Journal, 58(10), 3646-3658. https://doi.org/10.1002/gj.4777 Go to original source...
  38. Pata, U. K., Luo, R., Kartal, M. T., Adebayo, T. S., Ullah, S. (2023). Do technological innovations and clean energies ensure CO2 reduction in China? A novel nonparametric causality-in-quantiles. Energy & Environment, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X231210993 Go to original source...
  39. Pettifor, A. (2020). The case for the green new deal. London: Verso Books. ISBN 9781788738156.
  40. Prakash, V., Girgenti, G. (2020). Winning the green new deal: why we must, how we can. New York: Simon & Schuster. ISBN 9781982142483.
  41. Razzaq, A., Cui, Y., Irfan, M., et al. (2023). Asymmetric effects of fine particulate matter and stringency policy on COVID-19 intensity. International Journal of Environmental Health Research, 33(9), 837-849. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603123.2022.2059452 Go to original source...
  42. Schuelke-Leech, B. A. (2021). Disruptive technologies for a green new deal. Current Opinion in Environmental Science & Health, 21, 100245. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coesh.2021.100245 Go to original source...
  43. Stephan, G. (2023). Intergenerational fairness and climate change adaptation policy: An economic analysis. Green and Low-Carbon Economy, 1(3), 105-109. https://doi.org/10.47852/bonviewGLCE3202670 Go to original source...
  44. Streeck, W. (2013). Will expansion work? On Mark Blyth, austerity: The history of a dangerous idea. Comparative European Politics, 11(6), 722-728. https://doi.org/10.1057/cep.2013.23 Go to original source...
  45. Trainer, T. (2022). A technical critique of the Green New Deal. Ecological Economics, 195, 107378. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107378 Go to original source...
  46. Wang, D. (2023). Digitalization and Climate Change Adaptation in China. Green and Low-Carbon Economy. https://doi.org/10.47852/bonviewGLCE32021306 Go to original source...
  47. White, D. (2020). Just Transitions/Design for Transitions: Preliminary Notes on a Design Politics for a Green New Deal. Capitalism Nature Socialism, 31(2), 20-39. https://doi.org/10.1080/10455752.2019.1583762 Go to original source...
  48. Wang, J., Wang, G., Cui, Y., et al. (2022). How does imported pork regulate the supply and demand of China's pig market during the epidemic? - based on the analysis of African swine fever and COVID-19. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 9, 1028460. https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2022.1028460 Go to original source...
  49. Van Lerven, F., Stirling, A., Krebel, L. (2020). Recession Ready: Green Planning to Beat Tomorrow's Downturn. London: New Economics Foundation.
  50. Xie, Q., Fan, X. (2023). Carbon emission reduction effects of green finance reform and innovation pilot zones policy: evidence from the prefecture-level city in China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research International, 30, 102624-102640. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11356-023-29505-6 Go to original source...
  51. Zhang, L., Mei, Z. (2022). Green finance and industrial pollution: Empirical research based on spatial perspective. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10. https://doi.org/10.3389/FENVS.2022.1003327 Go to original source...

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY NC ND 4.0), which permits non-comercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.