Politická ekonomie 2023, 71(2):177-198 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1380

Potenciální produkt a mezera výstupu v období ekonomických krizí

Andrea Čížků ORCID...a
a Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, Fakulta informatiky a stastiky, Praha, Česká republika

Potential Output and Output Gap in a Period of Economic Crises

The article investigates potential output and output gap modelling and estimation in the Czech Republic in the period 1996-2021, including the global recession from 2008 and the recent crisis caused by government measures against the COVID-19 pandemic. The unobserved components (UC) methodology is applied, coefficients are estimated by the maximum likelihood method, unobserved variables are estimated using the Kalman filter. The standard UC model is modified in an original way to nonlinearly describe the hysteresis effect by allowing the output gap to have an asymmetrical influence on potential output. The econometric model verification proved significance of the hysteresis effect and showed a substantial inertia of negative consequences of both crises. Predictions of an impact of the War in Ukraine on the gap were also calculated and the uncertainty associated with these predictions was quantified.

Keywords: Potential output, output gap, economic crisis, unobserved components
JEL classification: C51, E32, O47

Received: June 14, 2022; Revised: November 24, 2022; Accepted: January 4, 2023; Published: April 25, 2023  Show citation

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Čížků, A. (2023). Potential Output and Output Gap in a Period of Economic Crises. Politická ekonomie, 71(2), 177-198. doi: 10.18267/j.polek.1380
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