Politická ekonomie 2021, 69(1):26-47 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1309

Determinanty poptávky a nabídky na trhu s byty a jejich význam pro vysvětlení regionálních rozdílů

Libor Votava ORCID...a, Lenka Komárková ORCID...a, Jiří Dvořák ORCID...a
a Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, Fakulta managementu, Jindřichův Hradec, Česká republika

Demand and Supply Determinants on the Property Market and Their Importance in Explaining Regional Differences

There is growing interest in property prices and price trends at national and regional levels. The paper aims to find links between selected demand and supply determinants based on a panel regression of regional data during 2000-2017 and to contribute to further discussion of the role of these determinants. The main output of the paper is the identification of regional differences in the direction and strength of the influence of individual determinants on the flat price. Regional differences were identified in the mid-year population, the number of inhabitants per completed flat, the number of applicants per job, the amount of household disposable income and the divorce rate. In Prague, the first three determinants were significant. The validity of the research is limited by the fact that some potentially significant data are not statistically monitored and data aggregated at the level of regions do not reflect local conditions. The output of the analysis shows determinants that explain the price variability and indicates unused economic policy instruments.

Keywords: real estate price, GDP, price bubble, regional differences, regional trends, disposable income, monetary policy, tax policy
JEL classification: E60, E70, H21, M20

Received: December 19, 2019; Revised: November 1, 2020; Accepted: November 30, 2020; Published: March 5, 2021  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago Chicago Notes IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Votava, L., Komárková, L., & Dvořák, J. (2021). Demand and Supply Determinants on the Property Market and Their Importance in Explaining Regional Differences. Politická ekonomie69(1), 26-47. doi: 10.18267/j.polek.1309
Download citation

References

  1. Ādmīdiņš, D., Zvanītājs, J. (2011). Factors Affecting the Dwelling Space Market Prices in Latvia. Intellectual Economics, 5(4), 513-525.
  2. Andersen, H. S. (2011). Motives for Tenure Choice during the Life Cycle: The Importance of Non-Economic Factors and Other Housing Preferences. Housing, Theory and Society, 28(2), 183-207, https://doi.org/10.1080/14036096.2010.522029 Go to original source...
  3. Arellano, M., Bond, S. (1991). Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297, https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968 Go to original source...
  4. Baltagi, B. H. (2008). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data (Fourth ed.). New York: Wiley. ISBN 978-0-470-51886-1
  5. Belke, A., Keil, J. (2018). Fundamental Determinants of Real Estate Prices: A Panel Study of German Regions. International Advances in Economic Research, 24(1), 25-45, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11294-018-9671-2 Go to original source...
  6. Bianchi, D., Guidolin, M., Ravazzolo, F. (2018). Dissecting the 2007-2009 Real Estate Market Bust: Systematic Pricing Correction or Just a Housing Fad?. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 16(1), 34-62, https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbx023 Go to original source...
  7. Bokhari, S., Geltner, D. (2011). Loss Aversion and Anchoring in Commercial Real Estate Pricing: Empirical Evidence and Price Index Implications. Real Estate Economics, 39(4), 635-670, https://doi.org/10.1111/%28ISSN%291540-6229/issues Go to original source...
  8. Brady, R. R. (2014). The Spatial Diffusion of Regional Housing Proces Across U.S. States. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 46, 150-166, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2014.04.003 Go to original source...
  9. Brůha, J., Hlaváček, M., Komárek, L. (2013). Dopady vývoje cen nemovitostí do finanční situace domácností. Zpráva o finanční stabilitě 2012/2013, pp. 121-128. Dostupné z: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/cs/financni-stabilita/.galleries/zpravy_fs/fs_2012-2013/fs_2012-2013_clanek_iv.pdf
  10. Brůha, J., Hlaváček, M., Komárek, L. (2017). House Prices and Household Consumption: The Case of the Czech Republic. Czech National Bank. Prague Working Paper No. 11. Dostupné z: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/cnbwp_2017_11.pdf
  11. Cadil, J., Mazouch, P., Musil, P., et al. (2014). True Regional Purchasing Power: Evidence from the Czech Republic. Post-Communist Economies, 26(2), 241-256, https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2014.904109 Go to original source...
  12. Case, K. E., Shiller, R. J. (1989). The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes. The American Economic Review, 79(1), 125-137.
  13. Ceccato, V., Wilhelmsson, M. (2011). The Impact of Crime on Apartment Prices: Evidence from Stockholm, Sweden. Geografiska Annaler: Series B, Human Geography, 93(1), 81-103, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0467.2011.00362.x Go to original source...
  14. Čadil, J. (2009). Housing Price Bubble Analysis-Case of the Czech Republic. Prague Economic Papers, 18(1), 38-47, https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.340 Go to original source...
  15. Český statistický úřad (2019a). Ukazatele v regionálním členění. Databáze regionálních účtů. Praha: Český statistický úřad. Dostupné z: http://apl.czso.cz/pll/rocenka/ rocenkavyber.volba?titul=Ukazatele%20v%20region%E1ln%EDm%20%E8len%ECn%ED &mypriznak=RC&typ=2≺oc=rocenka.presmsocas&mylang=CZ&jak=4
  16. Český statistický úřad (2019b). Příjmy a životní podmínky domácností - 2018. Praha: Český statistický úřad. Dostupné z: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/prijmy-a-zivotni-podminky-domacnosti-kf03f95ff5
  17. Český statistický úřad (2019c). Nejnovější údaje. Praha: Český statistický úřad. [Cit. 2019-12-13]. Dostupné z: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/domov
  18. ČNB (2015). Zpráva o finanční stabilitě 2014/2015. Kapitoly 2.4 a 4.4. Praha: Česká národní banka, pp. 35-38 a 84-89.
  19. ČNB (2016). Zpráva o finanční stabilitě 2015/2016. Kapitoly 2.2 a 4.3. Praha: Česká národní banka, pp. 27-29 a 90-103.
  20. ČNB (2017). Zpráva o finanční stabilitě 2016/2017. Kapitoly 2.2 a 5.3. Praha: Česká národní banka, pp. 28-30 a 86-95.
  21. ČNB (2018). Zpráva o finanční stabilitě 2017/2018. Kapitoly 2.2 a 5.3. Praha: Česká národní banka, pp. 31-33 a 96-108.
  22. ČNB (2019a). Doporučení k řízení rizik spojených s poskytováním retailových úvěrů zajištěných rezidenční nemovitostí. Úřední sdělení České národní banky ze dne 11. června 2019
  23. ČNB (2019b). Zpráva o finanční stabilitě 2018/2019. Kapitola 5.3. Praha: Česká národní banka, pp. 93-101.
  24. Deloitte Česká republika (2019). Deloitte Real Index: Jak se vyvíjí skutečné ceny bytů v ČR? Praha: Deloitte. Dostupné z: https://www2.deloitte.com/cz/cs/pages/real-estate/articles/cze-real-index.html
  25. Diaz, A., Jerez, B. (2013). House Prices, Sales, and Time on the Market: A Search-Theoretic Framework. International Economic Review, 54(3), 837-872, https://doi.org/10.1111/%28ISSN%291468-2354/issues Go to original source...
  26. Edelstein, R. H., Tsang, D. (2007). Dynamic Residential Housing Cycles Analysis. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 35(3), 295-313, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-007-9042-x Go to original source...
  27. Égert, B., Mihaljek, D. (2007). Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe. Comparative Economic Studies; New Brunswick, 49(3), 367-388, https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100221 Go to original source...
  28. Glaeser, E. L. (2017). Real Estate Bubbles and Urban Development. Asian Development Review, 34(2), 114-151, https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00097 Go to original source...
  29. Glaeser, E., Gottlieb, J. D., Tobio, K. (2012). Housing Booms and City Centers. American Economic Review, 102(3), 127-133, https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.3.127 Go to original source...
  30. Glaeser, E., Huang, W., Ma, Y., et al. (2017). A Real Estate Boom with Chinese Characteristics. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(1), 93-116, https://doi.org/10.1257/ jep.31.1.93 Go to original source...
  31. Gros, D. (2007). Bubbles in Real Estate? A Longer-Term Comparative Analysis of Housing Prices in Europe and the US. Centre for European Policy Studies. Brussels Working Paper No. 239, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1337979 Go to original source...
  32. Grum, B., Grum, D. K. (2015). A Model of Real Estate and Psychological Factors in Decision-making to Buy Real Estate. Urbani Izziv, 26(1), 82-91, https://doi.org/10.5379/urbani-izziv-en-2015-26-01-002 Go to original source...
  33. Hassan, K. (1990). Real Estate in the Theory of Finance. Real Estate Appraiser and Analyst, 56(1), 60.
  34. Hejlová, H., Hlaváček, M., Komárek, L. (2017). A Comprehensive Method for House Price Sustainability Assessment in the Czech Republic. Prague Economic Papers, 26(3), 269-285, https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.613 Go to original source...
  35. Hejlová, H., Holub, L., Plašil, M. (2018). Zavádění a kalibrace makroobezřetnostních nástrojů cílených na expozice zajištěné rezidenční nemovitostí v ČR. Zpráva o finanční stabilitě 2018/2019, pp. 126-135. Dostupné z: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/cs/financni-stabilita/.galleries/zpravy_fs/fs_2017-2018/fs_2017-2018_clanek_i.pdf
  36. Hlaváček, M., Komárek, L. (2010). Rovnovážnost cen nemovitosti v ČR. Politická ekonomie, 58(3), 326-342, https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.733 Go to original source...
  37. Hlaváček, M., Komárek, L. (2011). Regional Analysis of Housing Price Bubbles and Their Determinants in the Czech Republic. Finance a úvěr, 61(1), 67-91.
  38. Hlaváček, M., Novotný, O., Rusnák, M. (2016). Analýza cen komerčních nemovitostí v zemích střední Evropy. Politická ekonomie, 64(1), 3-18, https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1051 Go to original source...
  39. Hodges, J. S., Reich, B. J. (2010). Adding Spatially-correlated Errors Can Mess Up the Fixed Effect You Love. The American Statistician, 64(4), 325-334, https://doi.org/10.1198/tast.2010.10052 Go to original source...
  40. Iacoviello, M. (2005). House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle. American Economic Review, 95(3), 739-764, https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828054201477 Go to original source...
  41. Iacoviello, M. (2011). Housing Wealth and Consumption. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). Washington, DC International Finance Discussion Papers No. 1027,pp. 1-15. Go to original source...
  42. Kim, J. R., Chung, K. (2016). The Role of House Price in the US Business Cycle. Empirical Economics, 51(1), 71-92, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-1001-4 Go to original source...
  43. Komárková, L., Votava, L., Dvořák, J. (2019). Regional Differences in the Relation of Flat Prices to Net Disposable Income of Households, in Nešleha, J., Marek, L., Svoboda, M., Rakovská, Z., eds., European Financial Systems 2019: Proceedings of the 16th International Scientific Conference, pp. 318-324. Brno: Masaryk University.
  44. Li, J., Chiang, Y.-H. (2012). What Pushes Up China's Real Estate Price? International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis; Bingley, 5(2), 161-176, https://doi.org/10.1108/17538271211225913 Go to original source...
  45. Lux, M., Sunega, P., Mikeszová, M., et al. (2008). Standardy bydlení 2007/2008: Faktory vysokých cen vlastnického bydlení v Praze. Praha: Sociologický ústav AV ČR, v.v.i. ISBN 978-80-7330-140-8.
  46. Lux, M., Gibas, P., Boumová, I., et al. (2017). Reasoning Behind Choices: Rationality and Social Norms in the Housing Market Behaviour of First-Time Buyers in the Czech Republic. Housing Studies, 32(4), 517-539, https://doi.org/10.1080/02673037.2016.1219331 Go to original source...
  47. Lyons, R. C. (2015). East, West, Boom and Bust: The Spread of House Prices and Rents in Ireland, 2007-2012. Journal of Property Research, 32(1), 77-101, https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2013.870922 Go to original source...
  48. Maier, K., Mulíček, O., Franke, D. (2010). Vývoj regionalizace a vliv infrastruktur na atraktivitu území České republiky. Urbanismus a územní rozvoj, 13(5), 71-81.
  49. Matalík, I., Skolkova, M., Syrovatka, J. (2005). Real Estate Prices and CNB Monetary Policy, in Bank for International Settlements, ed., Real Estate Indicators and Financial Stability, pp. 184-196. Basel: Bank for International Settlements.
  50. McIlhatton, D., McGreal, W., de la Paz, P. T., et al. (2016). Impact of Crime on Spatial Analysis of House Prices: Evidence from a UK City. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 9(4), 627-647, https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-10-2015-0065 Go to original source...
  51. Meen, G. (2005). On the Economics of the Barker Review of Housing Supply. Housing Studies, 20(6), 949-971, https://doi.org/10.1080/02673030500291082 Go to original source...
  52. Mikeszová, M. (2008). Regionální disparity ve finanční dostupnosti nájemního bydlení, in Kutscherauer, A., ed., Regionální disparity - jejich pojetí, klasifikace a měření. Sborník přednášek: mezinárodní vědecký seminář: Šilheřovice, 13.-14.11.2008, pp. 78-93. Ostrava: VŠB - Technická univerzita Ostrava. ISBN 978-80-248-1890-0.
  53. Miles, W. (2017). Has There Actually Been a Sustained Increase in the Synchronization of House Price (and Business) Cycles Across Countries? Journal of Housing Economics, 36(C), 25-43, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2017.02.002 Go to original source...
  54. Novák, V. (2017). The Spatial Delimitation of Agglomerations in the Czech Republic: The Case of Northwestern Bohemia. Littera Scripta, 10(2), 73-83.
  55. Nyakabawo, W., Miller, S. M., Balcilar, M., et al. (2015). Temporal Causality between House Prices and Output in the US: A Bootstrap Rolling-window Approach. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 33, 55-73, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2015. 03.001 Go to original source...
  56. Ondoš, S., Gunther, M. (2009). Residential Housing Market Spatial Dynamics in Central Europe, in Proceedings of the 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference - Stockholm, Sweden. Prezentováno v 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. Stockholm: ERES Conference 2009, https://doi.org/10.15396/eres2009_376 Go to original source...
  57. Pagliari, J. L. (2017). Some Thoughts on Real Estate Pricing. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 43(6), 44-61, https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2017.43.6.044 Go to original source...
  58. Pinheiro, J. C., Bates, D. M. (2000). Mixed-Effects Models in S and S-PLUS. New York: Springer. ISBN 0-387-98957-9. Go to original source...
  59. Pinheiro, J., Bates, D., DebRoy, S., et al. (2020). nlme: Linear and Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models, R package version 3.1-144. Dostupné z: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=nlme
  60. Plašil, M., Andrle, M. (2019). Hodnocení udržitelnosti cen rezidenčních nemovitostí. Tematický článek o finanční stabilitě 1/2019. Praha: Česká národní banka pp. 1-12.
  61. Poterba, J. M., Weil, D. N., Shiller, R. (1991). House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy and Demography. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1991(2), 143-203, https://doi.org/10.2307/2534591 Go to original source...
  62. R Core Team (2020). R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Dostupné z: https://www.R-project.org/
  63. Rusnok, J. (2019). Žádná velká krize se neblíží. Měli bychom mít vyšší daň z druhého bytu. Aktuálně.cz. 29. 11. Dostupné z: https://nazory.aktualne.cz/rozhovory/jiri-rusnok-zadna -velka-krize-se-neblizi-problemy-s-bydlenim/r~267b78ce11f611eab1410cc47ab5f122/
  64. Schindler, F. (2010). Further Evidence on the (in-) Efficiency of the U.S. Housing Market. ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH Mannheim. Mannheim Discussion Papers No. 10-004, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1551273 Go to original source...
  65. Schindler, F., Rottke, N., Füss, R. (2009). Testing the Predictability and Efficiency of Securitized Real Estate Markets. ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH Mannheim. Mannheim Discussion Paper No. 09-054, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1495744 Go to original source...
  66. Sovová, E., Zámečníková, J. (2019). Sazby hypoték prudce padají. Hypoteční trh však příliš neožívá. iDNES.cz. 16. 10. Dostupné z: https://www.idnes.cz/finance/hypoteky-a-pujcky/hypoteky-prumerne-urokove-sazby-hypoindex-zari-2019-ceny-nemovitosti.A191014_145840_pujcky_sov
  67. Sunega, P., Lux, M., Mikeszová, M. (2010). Regionální rozdíly ve finanční dostupnosti bydlení jako bariéra pro migraci za prací: Analýza a možné nástroje státu. Praha: Sociologický ústav AV ČR, v.v.i. ISBN 978-80-7330-179-8.
  68. Sunjo, C. F., Yilmaz, N. K. (2017). Efficiency of Real Estate Market: Evidence from Istanbul Residential Market. IOSR Journal of Business and Management, 19(4), 29-41, https://doi.org/10.9790/487X-1904022941 Go to original source...
  69. Temelová, J., Novák, J., Ouředníček, M., et al. (2010). Housing Estates in the Czech Republic after Socialism: Various Trajectories and Inner Differentiation. Urban Studies, 48(9), 1811-1834, https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098010379279 Go to original source...
  70. Tita, G. E., Petras, T. L., Greenbaum, R. T. (2006). Crime and Residential Choice: a Neighborhood Level Analysis of the Impact of Crime on Housing Prices. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 22(4), 299-317, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-006-9013-z Go to original source...
  71. Utts, J. M. (1982). The Rainbow Test for Lack of Fit in Regression. Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 11(24), 2801-2815, https://doi.org/10.1080/03610928208828423 Go to original source...
  72. Votava, L., Dvořák, J. (2018). Ekonomický růst a hospodářská politika jako faktor ovlivňující trh bytů, in Fiala, R., Závodný Pospíšil, J., eds., Proceedings of 10th annual international scientific conference Competition. Jihlava: Vysoká škola polytechnická Jihlava, pp. 415-425.
  73. Wilhelmsson, M., Ceccato, V. (2015). Does Burglary Affect Property Prices in a Nonmetropolitan Municipality? Journal of Rural Studies, 39, 210-218, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2015.03.014 Go to original source...
  74. Wokoun, R., Viturka, M. (2014). Regional Development and Regional Policy in the Czech Republic after 1989. GeoScape, 8(2), 41-47, https://doi.org/10.2478/geosc-2014-0005 Go to original source...
  75. Zámečníková, J. (2019). Fincentrum Hypoindex září 2019: Sazby prudce padají. Hypoindex.cz. 16.10. Dostupné z: http://www.hypoindex.cz/clanky/fincentrum-hypoindex-zari-2019-sazby-prudce-padaji/
  76. Zemčík, P. (2011). Is There a Real Estate Bubble in the Czech Republic? Finance a úvěr, 61(1), 49-66.
  77. Zimmer, D. M. (2015). Asymmetric Dependence in House Prices: Evidence from USA and International Data. Empirical Economics, 49(1), 161-183,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-014-0859-x Go to original source...

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY NC ND 4.0), which permits non-comercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.