Can pronatalist policy be effective?

The article is concerned with pro-natalist policies, examining empirically their effectiveness. There are proposed four hypotheses: 1. Continuous decline of the birthrate, 2. Adaptive model, 3. Natural-rate-hypothesis and 4. Crowding-out-hypothesis. Nine countries are tested: Germany, Italy, Sweden and France before World War II and Romania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and East Germany during the communism. Best empirical results arise from the crowding-out-hypothesis. Good results follow from the adaptive model and the continuous decline of birthrates. The natural-rate-hypothesis has small explanational power. Pronatalist policies, according to this study, are not too effective.

Keywords: population policy, pronatalist sentiment, static model, dynamic model, constant decline in the birthrate, adaptive model, natural-rate-hypothesis, crowding-out hypothesis